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Old 03-09-2020, 01:10 PM
 
Location: 304
5,195 posts, read 7,130,400 times
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I thought this might be an interesting topic for us to discuss.

As we all know, our state has struggled to maintain population and is likely going to be one of a few states (possible only state) to lose population from the last census. With the exception of a few parts of the state, most counties have shrank significantly. These numbers will be felt through the loss of federal funding, and will have a major impact in rural parts of our state.

Some questions that I am curious about

1). Will the Charleston and Huntington metropolitan area borders change like they did in 2010?

2). Will cities in NCWV, see expanded metro areas in consideration of the economic growth in that part of the state?

3). Does the Eastern Panhandle meet projected growth numbers or does it exceed/fall short of them?

4). How significant is the population loss in the coal fields region?

5). Will there be any shake ups in the order of largest cities/metros in the state? Example: Huntington jump to #1?

6). How far behind Kanawha County is Berkley County in population now?

I realize that we have data to forecast these numbers, however the census is the offical standard for how we distribute funds in this country.

This is not meant to be a debate on who should receive what, but more like a discussion on what might likely happen.
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Old 03-09-2020, 03:07 PM
 
Location: Arlington, VA
1,528 posts, read 3,614,253 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chriscross309 View Post
I thought this might be an interesting topic for us to discuss.

As we all know, our state has struggled to maintain population and is likely going to be one of a few states (possible only state) to lose population from the last census. With the exception of a few parts of the state, most counties have shrank significantly. These numbers will be felt through the loss of federal funding, and will have a major impact in rural parts of our state.

Some questions that I am curious about

1). Will the Charleston and Huntington metropolitan area borders change like they did in 2010?

2). Will cities in NCWV, see expanded metro areas in consideration of the economic growth in that part of the state?

3). Does the Eastern Panhandle meet projected growth numbers or does it exceed/fall short of them?

4). How significant is the population loss in the coal fields region?

5). Will there be any shake ups in the order of largest cities/metros in the state? Example: Huntington jump to #1?

6). How far behind Kanawha County is Berkley County in population now?

I realize that we have data to forecast these numbers, however the census is the offical standard for how we distribute funds in this country.

This is not meant to be a debate on who should receive what, but more like a discussion on what might likely happen.
A few thoughts:

1.) Hard to tell- I've always been surprised Putnam was included in Huntington MSA as the traffic flow always seems to be much heavier towards Charleston. I think they add other economic ties as well - it is likely many Putnam residents do go to Huntington to shop/ eat. Putnam has only added a little over 1k people since 2010 so I doubt it is enough to sway either way. It was growing much much faster in the 90s when it added around 10k.

2.) Not likely- NCWV isn't really growing outside of Mon County. There has been some development around Bridgeport but the 2018 estimates show both Harrison and Marion counties having lost population since 2010. The losses aren't huge by any stretch, but neither have gained population.

3.) The Eastern Panhandle is still showing strong growth but it is not as fast as in the 2000s. I guess the demand for outer exurban living wasn't quite as strong this decade- will it start to accelerate again as Loudoun County builds out (and others become pricier)- likely.

4.) I'd say fairly significant - most counties likely down at least 10% in population. They've lost a lot of jobs and have the highest ratio of deaths over births. Most would require hundreds of people moving in per year AND a lot more people having kids for the counties to just stay stagnant. One has to wonder with a place like McDowell how low it can go- they're down to 18k after at one point being around 100k!

5.) Not for 2020- both are still losing population but it would take Charleston declining at a faster rate or Huntington bottoming out. 2030 could be interesting though!

6.) As of 2018 census estimate Berkeley was at 117k (up from 104k in 2010) and Kanawha was around 180k (down from 193k in 2010)- the 2019 data will be out soon but my best estimate based on growth/ decline rates of past few years I would say by 2020 Berkeley will have around 120-122k and Kanawha around 175-177k. They'll be about 55k apart at that point. Berkeley had 45k people in 1980 to put things in perspective how fast it has grown. Kanwaha had 230k back then.

Last edited by NOVAmtneer82; 03-09-2020 at 03:23 PM..
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Old 03-09-2020, 03:46 PM
 
Location: 304
5,195 posts, read 7,130,400 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NOVAmtneer82 View Post
A few thoughts:

1.) Hard to tell- I've always been surprised Putnam was included in Huntington MSA as the traffic flow always seems to be much heavier towards Charleston. I think they add economic ties as well - it is likely many Putnam residents do go to Huntington to shop/ eat. Putnam has only added a little over 1k people since 2010 so I doubt it is enough to sway either way. It was growing much much faster in the 90s, early 2000s.

2.) Not likely- NCWV isn't really growing outside of Mon County. There has been some development around Bridgeport but the 2018 estimates show both Harrison and Marion counties having lost population since 2010. It hasn't been a nosedive but it still - decline is decline

3.) The Eastern Panhandle is still showing strong growth but it is not as fast as in the 2000s. I guess there wasn't as much of an appetite this decade for multi hour commutes- will it start to accelerate again as Loudoun County builds out (and others become pricier)- likely.

4.) I'd say fairly significant - most counties likely down another 5- 10% in population

5.) Not for 2020- both are still losing population but it would take Charleston declining at a faster rate or Huntington bottoming out. 2030 could be interesting though!

6.) As of 2018 census estimate Berkeley was at 117k (up from 104k in 2010) and Kanawha was around 180k (down from 193k in 2010)- the 2019 data will be out soon but my best estimate based on growth/ decline rates of past few years I would say by 2020 Berkeley will have around 120-122k and Kanawha around 175-177k. They'll be about 55k apart at that point.
Putnam County should have never been given to Huntington in the manner it was. that brought Charleston's MSA well below 300k and I think that was a major factor in Charleston's struggles over the past decade. Those numbers are crucial when businesses decide where to locate and in deciding where to keep existing businesses. The 2020 census moved thousands of people from one statistical area to another with the drop of a hat. All because there was a patch of grass between Saint Albans and Scott Depot. It's hard to determine exactly where that line should be, because obviously both cities benefit from Putnam counties
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Old 03-10-2020, 09:53 AM
 
Location: Ohio via WV
500 posts, read 457,031 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chriscross309 View Post
Putnam County should have never been given to Huntington in the manner it was. that brought Charleston's MSA well below 300k and I think that was a major factor in Charleston's struggles over the past decade. Those numbers are crucial when businesses decide where to locate and in deciding where to keep existing businesses. The 2020 census moved thousands of people from one statistical area to another with the drop of a hat. All because there was a patch of grass between Saint Albans and Scott Depot. It's hard to determine exactly where that line should be, because obviously both cities benefit from Putnam counties
The U.S. Census does not subdivide counties. They determined that Putnam County was more closely connected to Huntington than Charleston through their process (too lazy to look it up but it includes % of population that works and shops in the city). A lot of this has to do with people in the Hurricane/Teays Valley area (which is a large percent of the population of Putnam County) working and shopping at the Huntington Mall. Regardless, Huntington "won" Putnam County fairly by U.S. Census standards. If you disagree with their standards, that's another conversation.

Last edited by 304eer; 03-10-2020 at 10:19 AM..
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Old 03-10-2020, 10:18 AM
 
Location: Ohio via WV
500 posts, read 457,031 times
Reputation: 296
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chriscross309 View Post
I thought this might be an interesting topic for us to discuss.

As we all know, our state has struggled to maintain population and is likely going to be one of a few states (possible only state) to lose population from the last census. With the exception of a few parts of the state, most counties have shrank significantly. These numbers will be felt through the loss of federal funding, and will have a major impact in rural parts of our state.

Some questions that I am curious about

1). Will the Charleston and Huntington metropolitan area borders change like they did in 2010?

2). Will cities in NCWV, see expanded metro areas in consideration of the economic growth in that part of the state?

3). Does the Eastern Panhandle meet projected growth numbers or does it exceed/fall short of them?

4). How significant is the population loss in the coal fields region?

5). Will there be any shake ups in the order of largest cities/metros in the state? Example: Huntington jump to #1?

6). How far behind Kanawha County is Berkley County in population now?

I realize that we have data to forecast these numbers, however the census is the offical standard for how we distribute funds in this country.

This is not meant to be a debate on who should receive what, but more like a discussion on what might likely happen.
1) Doubtful. I would say the biggest chance of anything changing would be potentially Mason County getting included in Huntington's MSA but I don't think that's likely.

2) I could see Lewis County getting lumped into Clarksburg's uSA. Don't see either Greene County, PA or any other counties getting added to Morgantown's unfortunately. I'd give it until 2030 but I think Greene County and Marion County will get added to Morgantown's MSA then. And maybe another 10 years after that and they could potentially pull Fayette away from Pittsburgh. Finishing up the Mon-Fayette Expressway into Cheat Lake in 2011 really opened up Morgantown to Fayette County.

1 & 2a) As I mentioned in my post above, these are all based on things like % of people working
and shopping between their location and the location of the statistical area. I have noticed
the Weston area growing closer with Clarksburg-Bridgeport. Also, if Bridgeport surprises
and comes in above 10,000 people, the Clarksburg uSA could get renamed to include
Bridgeport.

3) As NOVA said, I think they're going to come in under expectations. Real estate in Jefferson County in particular rose quickly in the last decade which slowed growth into it.

4) This is what has hurt WV the most population-wise. Those counties are hemorrhaging people and the ultimate numbers are going to be VERY bad. I am going to place a guess that Raleigh County's aren't as bad as estimated and may come out close to even.

5) I'm going to pick a mild surprise here and say Huntington will top Charleston in population within city limits.

6) Kanawha is still well ahead of Berkeley in population.

Last edited by 304eer; 03-10-2020 at 10:32 AM..
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Old 03-10-2020, 12:50 PM
 
733 posts, read 836,727 times
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I wouldn't be surprised to see Raleigh Co. hold fairly steady. From 2000 to 2010, they lost .5% of their population, which is less than 1,000 people. I haven't really seen any shifts in jobs or housing market to indicate a substantial drop. The only wild card would be the outer areas of the county away from Beckley, places like Marsh Fork, Lester, and Rhodell, but those areas were already largely depopulated.


I think the real big thing to watch for is whether or not WV loses a congressperson.
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Old 03-10-2020, 03:57 PM
 
Location: elkins wv
367 posts, read 328,915 times
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I looked on one site and Raleigh Counties population projection is down 5.91% to 74,254. Of the top ten counties in population only four will gain population. Monongalia,Berkeley, Jefferson and Putnam. Only 9 counties are expected to gain population and 5 counties are expected to lose over 10% of their population led by Mcdowell County at 17.54%. Mcdowell counties population is projected at 18,233. It's sad to think in 1950 Mcdowell counties population was 98,887. Putnam is the only southern county not expected to lose population. Most north Central counties either have slight gains or small losses in population but the southern coalfields are dead and will be for generation. I checked the southern 18 counties and they have lost around 362,000 people since 1950. Only Putnam gained population while Wayne county was one of the few without at least a 10% loss in population.Wayne is actually up from 1950 but down from it's high in 1980. Kanawha had it's high in 1960 and has lost 72,000 people since then. With few decent roads in most these counties and little infrastructure they have little chance of improvement. Our schools in these areas and the drug addiction problem aren't helping and I see few companies wanting to locate in any of these areas. Charleston,Huntington and Beckley have the best chances but there is zero leadership in Charleston. I don't understand why Charleston and Huntington don't join as a metro and I think it would help Beckley,Bluefield and Princeton as well . Morgantown,Fairmont and Clarksburg/Bridgeport need to join together also. It makes them all look more attractive for companies and retailers and restaurants that look for specific population guidelines before they will locate in a area.
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Old 03-11-2020, 08:21 AM
 
733 posts, read 836,727 times
Reputation: 625
Quote:
Originally Posted by D T WV MOUNTAINS View Post
I looked on one site and Raleigh Counties population projection is down 5.91% to 74,254. Of the top ten counties in population only four will gain population. Monongalia,Berkeley, Jefferson and Putnam. Only 9 counties are expected to gain population and 5 counties are expected to lose over 10% of their population led by Mcdowell County at 17.54%. Mcdowell counties population is projected at 18,233. It's sad to think in 1950 Mcdowell counties population was 98,887. Putnam is the only southern county not expected to lose population. Most north Central counties either have slight gains or small losses in population but the southern coalfields are dead and will be for generation. I checked the southern 18 counties and they have lost around 362,000 people since 1950. Only Putnam gained population while Wayne county was one of the few without at least a 10% loss in population.Wayne is actually up from 1950 but down from it's high in 1980. Kanawha had it's high in 1960 and has lost 72,000 people since then. With few decent roads in most these counties and little infrastructure they have little chance of improvement. Our schools in these areas and the drug addiction problem aren't helping and I see few companies wanting to locate in any of these areas. Charleston,Huntington and Beckley have the best chances but there is zero leadership in Charleston. I don't understand why Charleston and Huntington don't join as a metro and I think it would help Beckley,Bluefield and Princeton as well . Morgantown,Fairmont and Clarksburg/Bridgeport need to join together also. It makes them all look more attractive for companies and retailers and restaurants that look for specific population guidelines before they will locate in a area.
There were similar projections for Raleigh leading up to the 2010 census if I recall correctly.


Cities can't decide to "join as a metro" its based on metrics and statistics regarding where people live/ population density, where they work, and where they shop. The Beckley metro consists of Raleigh and Fayette Counties because there is a good number of people in each county (primarily in the area between Beckley & Fayetteville) that work and shop in the other. There is too much separation between the population bases in Raleigh & Mercer county for this to be the case. There is a solid 40 minutes of nothing between Beckley and Princeton.

Huntington & Charleston are already a CSA, but I do not see enough cross travel between the two for them to become a unified MSA.
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Old 03-11-2020, 08:44 AM
 
Location: Arlington, VA
1,528 posts, read 3,614,253 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mattec View Post
There were similar projections for Raleigh leading up to the 2010 census if I recall correctly.


Cities can't decide to "join as a metro" its based on metrics and statistics regarding where people live/ population density, where they work, and where they shop. The Beckley metro consists of Raleigh and Fayette Counties because there is a good number of people in each county (primarily in the area between Beckley & Fayetteville) that work and shop in the other. There is too much separation between the population bases in Raleigh & Mercer county for this to be the case. There is a solid 40 minutes of nothing between Beckley and Princeton.

Huntington & Charleston are already a CSA, but I do not see enough cross travel between the two for them to become a unified MSA.
Raleigh based on the 2018 estimates (and again those are just estimates but they are usually fairly close) was down a couple thousand but you are correct that it will be nothing like the losses in other coalfield counties. It is the economic hub for far southern West Virginia and does have fairly extensive retail and some other industry so it isn't hit as hard by mining layoffs. If anything I'd say the losses in Raleigh are most likely concentrated in the many rural towns away from Beckley.

Huntington and Charleston are indeed a CSA and agree that there isn't enough cross travel to become unified. Similar to Cincinnati and Dayton, Cleveland and Akron, DC and Baltimore, etc. All CSA's but not one MSA.

I wonder if Jackson gets added to the Charleston MSA- I know there are people who commute there from the southern end and into around Ripley but not sure how many work in the county around Ravenswood or go north towards Parkersburg. It currently isn't in either metro area.
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Old 03-11-2020, 01:04 PM
 
Location: 304
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I actually think Putnam County will go back to Charleston's MSA. I think the commuting patterns speak for themselves, as well as the majority of Putnam's growth in the past decade being primarily eastern focused. Developments off the Scott Depot exit, and towards Winfield. I didn't think it was a fair representation of the county in 2010 when it was placed within Huntington's sphere, but I could be wrong. I have never lived in Putnam County and only know what I have seen and heard from others.

I think adding Jackson County and removing Clay County from the MSA would make a lot of sense.

Agree completely that Charleston and Huntington can't and shouldn't be one MSA.
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