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What is not mentioned is the entire businesses that will migrate because they are here to use cheap electric power.
I predict that the job loss in its entirety will be above 100,000, about 13% of our entire work force...
That's teachers, gas stations, convience stores, government downsizing and every single aspect of an economy that is effected...
Compared to the 80's in Wv. This will be a death blow that will take a generation or two to correct...if at all.
I have mentioned that Wv should get in the fuel business as a provider of diesel fuel. That would reduce our dependance on foriegn oil significantly.
The state that gets there first with this idea will get about 1/2 of the entire business...the others will play catch up. (Exxon's Business Philosophy)
Another business that is on the horizion nationally is Marijuana Farming.
That legislation should come in the next year of the Obamanation of this country.
A 2 Trillion dollar business and Wv has an edge on that industry now, albiet being illegal.
We are to be doped from 'cradel to grave and this will be seen as a needed aspect as is gambling and booze.
Throughout our states history, moral items of society have been conveniently shelved in time and order to make way for the dollar...
We saw it with the Temperance Movement of the 1880's, the gathering in of the illegal booze money by the Kennedy's, Capones, and Roosevelts of the Prohibition, the reestablishment of liquior...the need for the gambling revenue for the Seniors, the Edcucation funds and the 90% that goes to the General Budget.
Pot should be legal...its time to bring this 'Green Crop into production and reap the money...benefits? Well, nothing is free.
It will help re-fund the company endowments to our colleges that will be lost, the revenue for pensions and health benefits for our state workers, ect...
America has gone completely insane and the best way to correct insanity is to get stoned...all those dope heads from the 60's have been right all along...
What's 100,000 jobs anyway...they are only jobs, they do not have the faces of children robbed of a future or anything like that, do they?
and then...we are only West Virginia...someone has to be the sacrifice..
Perhaps it's time for sucession...if we could do it from Virginia in 1863, we have a precedent and can do it from a federal feudal government that has lost it's mission and purpose.
What is not mentioned is the entire businesses that will migrate because they are here to use cheap electric power.
Our rates have been and are currently substantially lower than surrounding states and I don't see how that trend would be 'reversed' if cap & trade comes to fruition.
As a matter of fact- if our rates remain proportionaly the same, it could actually serve as a draw IF the state recognizes that changes in our tax code and judiciary could really benefit us.
The sad fact of it all is that coal related JOBS have been on a steady, steep decline for decades and this state did little to diversify- ergo one of the reasons this state was sucking hind-ti**y on the hog for decades.
But in any event- 23,000 jobs 'lost' is not an insignificant number. But is sure a lot less than the numbers some portend.
Cap and Trade Could Cost W.Va. 23,000 Jobs - State Journal - STATEJOURNAL.com (http://www.statejournal.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=72708 - broken link)
This article is the Ice Breaker Memo...has the honey added in with the arsenic...
Yes, coal jobs have been on the decline and the tonnage has been very high...the tax really comes from the tonnage...25,000 workers at $60k per year is peanuts...but that is All of the coal workers...count them.
The state will be missing 2 billion out of a 6 billion tax collection...
How much are you willing to pay for goods and services if they rise 400%.
The sad fact of it all is that coal related JOBS have been on a steady, steep decline for decades and this state did little to diversify- ergo one of the reasons this state was sucking hind-ti**y on the hog for decades.
This is what has always amazed me the most about jobs in this state. There seems to be no plan in place to replace coal because whether cap and trade happens or not, our reserves are finite and will eventually run out. Some estimates say in the next 20 years, most of the coal that is mineable will be gone. Coal gasification is something that can be maintained after we run out by using coal from other states. But to make it feasible, oil has to be above $70/barrel or you have to have enough refineries to make it cheap. They plan to build one in Mingo county but one won't be enough. Such an investment must also be sustainable because if it withers quickly, there's not much else you can do with a coal to gas refinery.
Also, given our manufacturing base and the rise of green technologies, I'm surprised we haven't tried to get some of the related manufacturing jobs here. Solar panels, wind mills etc. could be made using existing factories and materials from WV companies. These things will be made whether we do it or not so might as well bring some jobs and use the companies we have here to supplement/supply that industry. It's likely a political issue though and those type of companies are probably seen as enemies of coal by certain officials, even though they aren't.
That's pretty much how I feel. Regardless of Cap and Trade, the trend has been moving to green technologies or low emission fuels for over a decade now. In certain areas, including corporate environments, if given the choice they opt for the cleanest technologies and in most cases, they're willing to pay a premium for it.
It's kind of hard to buck that trend. So the continued 'support coal' at any cost mentality becomes highly irresponsible in more than one way.
Not to mention it's a highly cyclical commodity, yadda-yadda. I've seen comments where people are blaming 'Cap and Trade' for layoffs that are occurring now- spoon fed by the company exec's. What utter B.S. It's the lack of demand for energy due to the economy.
So yeah- caps on carbon emissions will cost the coal industry, will cost the consumer, however the industry itself has NOT been a growing employment base (historically) and has been unpredictable, to say the least, for state revenue.
Why hasn't it been a growing industry?
Overseas markets, Perhaps...
In the 80's, we were flooded with the cheap worthless coal from Wyoming and Indian slave labor Columbia (Rockefeller Industires) That held a cap on this industry...and Oil only needs to be in the $52 range to make a substantial profit....not $70.
Solar Panels do not work here...they hardly work at all...Australia has done the studies in their deserts and given them a good look...they are sticking with the coal they have.
Our coal technology has followed the German Model...almost to the point of becoming robotic...and needs very few actual people to do the underground work.
Unpredictable?...
It was floundering when Bush 43 gave it a kick in the pants...that put a lot of people back to work and money in their pockets..
This thing is political and has nothing to do with economic strategies other than making other groups the recipients of the consumer money...they (the consumers) are the ones who suffer through these cyclic whims when they are changed.
Instead of leaving a stability of sorts to build on, chaos must be ordered. That is what we are seeing.
The commodity sees demand spikes for a multitude of reasons, as well as the normal declines. It's a commodity and influenced by economics, politics, war, fear, you name it. However as an employment base it's pretty much in decline, historically speaking.
The fact that WV relies on the commodity itself as the bedrock for income is insane. You have to make the political decisions, and have the political will to move forward. So where did we go? Well, of course there's gambling revenue, lol.
So much ire over cap'n trade, when there should so much ire directed elsewhere. It's just plain ironic.
That held a cap on this industry...and Oil only needs to be in the $52 range to make a substantial profit....not $70.
My cousin works as a chemical engineer at the refinery in Ashland and per a discussion about this with her, oil has to be at least $70 a barrel for coal gasification to compete or they would have to have more coal to gas refineries to make it cheaper. That explains why people were all about this when oil was high and things are calming down now that oil has dropped again.
This technology has been around since the 1940s and if it were really that cost effective, we would have seen it wide scale. Unless oil prices remain high though, the cost-benefit ratio isn't high enough for companies to take a chance. Here's a coal-gas plant that was dropped just this past month.
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