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View Poll Results: what price drop do you forsee in westchester over the next couple of years
price increase of over 20% yearly 2 3.57%
price increase of over 10% yearly 7 12.50%
price will stabilize not drop or rise 20 35.71%
price will drop over 5% yearly 13 23.21%
price will drop over 10% yearly 8 14.29%
price will drop over 15% yearly 6 10.71%
Voters: 56. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-06-2007, 11:57 AM
 
Location: Maui
150 posts, read 723,977 times
Reputation: 79

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sorry this is a dup

Last edited by Frangi914; 12-06-2007 at 12:09 PM..
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Old 12-06-2007, 12:07 PM
 
Location: Maui
150 posts, read 723,977 times
Reputation: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by house shopping View Post
Please don't get the wrong idea when I say this but... here is the classic example of a seller who refuses to get her head out of 2005 home boom. ITS OVER SORRY YOU MISSED THE BOAT! however, thank you for adding more air to the bubble Pleaaaase keep us posted next spring once you reduce your home price because you have to sell since you would be carring two mortgages. Just kidding I really don't know your home but from the sound of your comment your a dreamer like so many sellers our there.
I am sorry to tell you this...but YOU are out of your mind...I am not the one who said my house is to be put on the market for the price I quoted it was my real estate agent (three in fact, we shopped for a real estate agent) - You have no idea what my house looks like, how much land I own or anything about anything else, so how could you just make the assumptions you are right?????. Sorry it's you who are missing the boat by shooting off your mouth when you just don't know the facts. My house I was told MY REAL ESTATE AGENTS!!! could go for 1.5 but I am not going to hang around because I am moviing to Hawaii next year, that is why I am pricing the home to sell. So please unless you know the specifics of my home keep it on the silent Also since you know it all - I carry NO MORTAGE, and I'm actually moving to Hawaii debt free and I'll be paying cash for a new home there, not working and buying two new cars - Hmmm I wonder if you can say that??? - Let me tell you I worked hard for the past five years to be able to do this. Aloha than
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Old 12-06-2007, 12:26 PM
 
83 posts, read 345,132 times
Reputation: 22
no I have no idea what your home looks like and for all I know the real estate agents have it prices right telling you 1.25 mill instead of what "you belive" its worth (1.5). My comment was made to you base not on what your realtors told you but what you tell yourself. It matters not what sort of financial situation you or I are in. This has to do with delusional sellers and sometimes realtors. ultimatly the buyers determine what the selling price of a home is. please keep us posted when you sell wont you? whwill you ever do with yourself if you are not working? and if its hawaii you are heading to you should know MAHALO is better term to use than ALOHA. or you could also say "he mau ke aloha" I've been there plenty I should know xoxo
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Old 12-17-2007, 01:48 PM
 
4 posts, read 11,731 times
Reputation: 10
House shopping: I would just like to start by saying that you are a great example of brilliance and maturity. Message boards everywhere could use more folks who start a ‘what do you think?’ thread only to lambast all dissenting replies.

In today’s market, it is quite common to hear arguments that home prices will decrease. Unfortunately, most of the time the support for these arguments are a variety of the following:

* the economy is weak
* home prices have increased so much recently – they are bound to come crashing down

The above two statements are not completely worthless, but about as close to it as you can get. They both rely on average values for a data set that is far more general than what an individual is, in reality, going to be interested in. It is true that the economy is relatively weak right now – for the entire country of over 300 million people. It is also true that home prices have increased tremendously over the last decade – particularly in densely populated areas. It so happens that in densely populated areas – all of them – we have a very wide spectrum of homes to consider. Mashing everything in this spectrum together and taking an average is not terribly useful for an individual looking to buy or sell a home.

Let me offer a more focused assessment. First of all, we have to think about what determines home prices.

* supply and demand
* comps

Let’s start with supply and demand. Supply is very easy to assess. Westchester’s home inventory data is available at the Westchester County Board of REALTORS’ website, http://www.wcbr.net/, under ‘$ale$ $tat$’. As you can see, in the last few years inventory has been increasing slowly and steadily. Talking about demand is a little more difficult (perhaps someone here can assist?). As we don’t have any figures here let’s try to speculate. In this regard, I think it makes sense to think about how much money people are making. I don’t think it is terribly unreasonable to suggest that people in the area have seen modest increases in income over the last decade, and that it is very unlikely to see significant, if any at all, decreases.

Home prices are strongly related to comps – comparative sales. Therefore, it is reasonable to think about things going on that may impact comps in your area. Perhaps the most obvious thing at the moment is the ‘credit crunch’. Now, if you are interested in the 7 figure single-family market then this may not apply all that much. For the rest of us… Sub-prime lending has recently come to an abrupt halt. As such, what should we expect to see in the near future? It is reasonable to assume that there are around 6 quarters of sub-prime adjustable rate mortgages out there. Many of the folks with these mortgages will take one of the following paths in the next year and a half:

* refinance
* sell
* foreclosure

For our purposes here (e.g. talking about comps) we can at least acknowledge that the first path doesn’t do much while the last two support decreases in prices (motivated sellers). That said, I think it is reasonable to expect to see some relatively low comps over the next couple years. However, what should we expect to happen when all of these ARMs have vanished? How will the landscape change when low comps related to the ‘credit crunch’ come to a halt as abrupt as the ‘credit crunch’ itself? People in and around NYC tend to make a lot of money and this, my friends, is not something that is likely to change.

My ballpark estimate for Westchester: ~8% decrease in the next 2 years followed by a 4-8% increase in the following 2 years.
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Old 12-17-2007, 03:44 PM
 
31 posts, read 55,354 times
Reputation: 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by paul_esk View Post
My ballpark estimate for Westchester: ~8% decrease in the next 2 years followed by a 4-8% increase in the following 2 years.
you say 8% in the next two years. can you clarify? do you mean 8% each year for the next two or do you mean 8% in total (4+4%) over the next two years?

alot of good information there and pretty inclusive of most issues. but you left out one of the most important thing. this is that home prices may go down due to this demand that's left in the dark by your explanation.

you covered supply and you are right that its increased over the years. However, demand is just as easy to understand. it has to do with the buyers out there. remember that 70% +/_ in this country are now home owners. more than at any other time in history. cheap money sparked the buying spree. now we are left with the buyers out there who either can't afford a home or are on the sidelines waiting to see whats going to happen with the whole mess. either way they (the remaining buyers) are no longer willing to fuel the real estate boom by buying overpriced, overvalued homes. that folks is the missing demand that the real estate market faces today.

will prices go down. Yes. have they already? in such small amount that its not worth mentioning. will it continue? I like you think yes.
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Old 12-17-2007, 04:23 PM
 
4 posts, read 11,731 times
Reputation: 10
I meant 8% in two years -- not per year, same thing for the 4-8%.

You brought up a rough percentage of people in this country who are now homeowners. I understand what you are trying to say, but I don't think such a national average is helpful when talking about a county like Westchester.
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Old 12-18-2007, 01:10 AM
 
31 posts, read 55,354 times
Reputation: 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by paul_esk View Post
I meant 8% in two years -- not per year, same thing for the 4-8%.

You brought up a rough percentage of people in this country who are now homeowners. I understand what you are trying to say, but I don't think such a national average is helpful when talking about a county like Westchester.
ok... I understand what percentage you mean now. I happen to disagree and say it will probably be more like 8-12% but of course no one really knows.

as for the generalization of % of homeoners is actually something like 85% homeowners in westchester.

One of the main reasons that westchester has maintained its prices (really decreased a bit) compared to other locals is due to people from manhattan area with big bonuses moving into the area. I think that may very well change. Its basic economics. economic slowdown leads to higher unemployment, less bonus, less income. This takes time but its been slowing since mid 05. Westchester may never catch up to the price drops of other areas in the US. However, its not exactly immuned to drops in price either.

Only time will tell. I could be wrong.
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Old 03-02-2008, 12:10 PM
 
1 posts, read 2,815 times
Reputation: 10
A few weeks ago, I went down to a license renewal real estate course, in queens, to listen to a speaker by the name of Benjamin Katz. I'm not a real estate agent, but a close broker friend told me to go listen to what he had to say and to say the least it was very informative. I'll be brief and tell you folk one thing, he said, that pertains to what we are discussing now and was quite alarming. In 2007, the mortgage meltdown, which is still carrying over into 2008, caused many difficulties to say the least, but there is something else that it will cause. Something that has the potential to melt down the housing market and economy, in general, way more. Something, besides recession, that the government is keeping low right now. Where did most people turn to first, when in trouble with there mortgages? - Their credit cards. And what will happen, within the next year or so, when these folk have to pay back their credit card bills? They just lost there homes, where do you think they are going after they maxed out all there credit cards? Bankruptcy, regardless of the new bankruptcy laws we just saw a 28% rise in Bankruptcy's last quarter of 2007 -

[url=http://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2007/04/us_bankruptcy_f.html]Credit Slips: U.S. Bankruptcy Filings Back Over 1,000,000?[/url]

The same thing that happened to the sub-prime market will happen to the credit card companies, which are mainly held by banks, which give mortgages, etc... Get the point? The domino effect has the potential to be huge!
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Old 03-03-2008, 05:48 AM
 
19 posts, read 74,920 times
Reputation: 26
Default home shopping

i am no real estate expert, just someone out there actively looking for a starter house in yonkers, and take observations it for what its worth-

it seems that finally some sellers are starting to get realistic, want to move their homes quickly, and bringing their prices down and once it moves into the 500K range, the houses get snapped up.

one home in tibbets park area listed at 570K, relisted at 520K, sold at 500K once it was relisted within weeks. thats just an example. if you run a zillow comps check in zip codes 10703, 10710, quite a few homes have sold in the last two months. a lot of homes are being re-listed at new prices.

why buy now you may ask? why not wait? well, I live in Manhattan, and a 2 bedroom apartment in Manhattan is almost 3000 a month these days to rent!!! forget about buying, the foreigners are keeping even one bedrooms out of reach.

for those of us who saved up a few bucks, we can buy a nice home for 500K, the mortgage payment is less than that, we get the tax deduction, no NYC income tax (there is a yonkers tax but it is a LOT LESS and property taxes are low also in the area). from that perspective, you dont need great appreciation in the house, you come out ahead almost day one, with a house instead of a mouse infested apartment (:

i think as prices drop (I vote for an average drop of 10% versus peak in 2008) buyers priced out of Manhattan or are sick of Manhattan will provide the floor to home prices in 2009. the key however is availability of MORTGAGES at DECENT RATES (below 7%). I dont mean subprime, I mean 30 year fixed for borrowers with good credit and some money down.

By the way, Hillary's plan to freeze mortgage rates is LUDICROUS and will accomplish the opposite


my two cents.....
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Old 03-03-2008, 08:14 AM
 
19 posts, read 74,920 times
Reputation: 26
i mean to write "the mortgage payment is less than RENT"
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