I'd say you're looking at 40 minutes without traffic, but I'd leave a full hour just in case.
The Saw Mill is definitely more direct, as it runs directly southwest-northeast (precisely from Yonkers to Katonah); but other than due to flooding or a major accident, it rarely gets backed up. The only plus to 684 is the higher speed limit (65 rather than 55 on the Saw Mill), but you'd still have to get through White Plains one way or another (even if you took the Hutch to the Cross County). The Saw Mill would help you to avoid the White Plains-bound traffic completely.
Your worst headache will probably be all the lights along Yonkers Avenue from the Saw Mill to the waterfront. That area gets very congested, especially in the afternoons. In any case, I'd go with the Saw Mill.
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