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I've been watching houses in the Asheville area over the past couple years. I basically watched the prices drop and drop and drop on those houses willing to be sold. Of course there are lots of delusional people with '07 and '08 prices on their homes and those houses sit until the people wake up and seriously drop the price or take them off the market.
One comes to mind in South Asheville. It would have sold for over $400,000, perhaps as high as $450,000, at the peak of the market. It recently sold for the very low $300,000s - pushing $300,000 flat. That would be a sale of about 2/3, perhaps a hair more, of it's top value - a 1/3 drop in value.
From what it appears, the $300,000+ market is slow when compared to the $200,000 and lower market in the Asheville area. However, the $400,000 and up, especially the $750,000 and up area, is especially slow or even nearly dead.
What do you think about the future for real estate values in the Buncombe County region? Does anyone's crystal ball have a prediction for the near, mid and long-term real estate future in the greater Buncombe County area.
BTW, I thought I'd add my prediction. For the near-term, I think there may still be a little fat that can be trimmed from the prices, but the bulk has already been removed. I would estimate that there might be another 5% to 10% at most available for a drop. I would suggest that prices might bounce down and up within that range between now and the next selling season.
Then, I would hope that prices remain flat, perhaps up a little one month, down a little the next month, but remaining in a trading range for another year or two.
That would bring us to late 2012 or 2013 where modest and sustainable price appreciation would come into play. I would hope that it falls into the 3%-5% annual range on average.
Does anyone think I'm crazy, delusional or just wearing my rose-colored glasses? Again, what do you think of Asheville's real estate future?
You're being too rosy. We've got a massive credit bubble to deflate, and there are other systemic factors such as job creation and the movement of Boomers from the prime spending years of their lives to more savings as they approach retirement. Housing market may be dead for a decade; and the insane appreciation of the last decade was merely an aberration.
Here's some more grist for the mill. Can anyone contradict his methodology?
If true that can't be good for Jim Anthony and the other high end speculators in our region.
Edit: Seems Rosenberg's methodology was a bit off by reading some of the comments further down the thread; still very enlightening on the overhang of high end homes. My thesis is that prices will continue to fall in the upper ranges which will put downward price pressures on the lower end home market. That 300K+ home could easily drop to 250k +/- or lower still.
Last edited by jstubbspt; 08-26-2010 at 09:45 PM..
I think it will be a few more yrs before homes start to appreciate again. People still want to live here. I give it a few more yrs though - although I dont see prices dropping much more than they currently are.
BTW, I thought I'd add my prediction. For the near-term, I think there may still be a little fat that can be trimmed from the prices, but the bulk has already been removed. I would estimate that there might be another 5% to 10% at most available for a drop. I would suggest that prices might bounce down and up within that range between now and the next selling season.
Then, I would hope that prices remain flat, perhaps up a little one month, down a little the next month, but remaining in a trading range for another year or two.
That would bring us to late 2012 or 2013 where modest and sustainable price appreciation would come into play. I would hope that it falls into the 3%-5% annual range on average.
Does anyone think I'm crazy, delusional or just wearing my rose-colored glasses? Again, what do you think of Asheville's real estate future?
You are looking at further declines in the 20%-30% (minimum) on the higher end homes, especially if they are 2nd homes (that era is all but dead). There is no way prices will 'bounce' up in the next 3-5 years- and if you see it, that is a clear sign that your agent is clueless.
Appreciation? You'll be lucky to hold what you got in a couple of years - more like for a decade. The Option ARMs and Alt As won't clear the marketplace until 2013 at the earliest and then it will take a while for the banks (govt most likely) to clear all their foreclosure inventory.
Unfortunately, the RE market going to get a lot worse over the next couple of years in WNC...there is just too much risk.
You're being too rosy. We've got a massive credit bubble to deflate, and there are other systemic factors such as job creation and the movement of Boomers from the prime spending years of their lives to more savings as they approach retirement. Housing market may be dead for a decade; and the insane appreciation of the last decade was merely an aberration.
Here's some more grist for the mill. Can anyone contradict his methodology?
If true that can't be good for Jim Anthony and the other high end speculators in our region.
Edit: Seems Rosenberg's methodology was a bit off by reading some of the comments further down the thread; still very enlightening on the overhang of high end homes. My thesis is that prices will continue to fall in the upper ranges which will put downward price pressures on the lower end home market. That 300K+ home could easily drop to 250k +/- or lower still.
Rosie needs to do a better job of 'splainin' what he meant - obviously there were NEW homes >$750K which sold (but not more than 499 in total). The govt does not consider anything less than .5% as statistically significant -
No amount of money in the world could compare to the happiness of living in WNC the past 5 years! The joy of fixing up an old farmhouse is PRICELESS!!!! You truly can't put a price tag on living in Heaven!
I thought that I'd revive this thread as I just closed in NYC. Price appreciation there has been at breakneck speed. Asheville is my home now and so I cashed in and did a 1031 exchange into 2 properties here and looking for a third. I will be living in one of the properties and renting the other two. This will allow me to live rent free and have an income to suppliment my pension.
I am hoping that the Asheville market will remain solid into my golden years. Anybody care to comment on the future of the Asheville real estate market?
I'll let others comment on the state of things in the city of Asheville but the market in Black Mountain is starting to resemble the good old bubble days of 2006. Multiple offers on houses the day they hit the market, bidding wars, etc. Next we will probably see sellers refuse to allow inspection contingencies and banks offering no-doc mortgages. Black Mountain has always been a bad value despite its inherent cuteness so I'm going to look somewhere else (if it exists) where the laws of rationality still apply.
i'll let others comment on the state of things in the city of asheville but the market in black mountain is starting to resemble the good old bubble days of 2006. Multiple offers on houses the day they hit the market, bidding wars, etc. Next we will probably see sellers refuse to allow inspection contingencies and banks offering no-doc mortgages. Black mountain has always been a bad value despite its inherent cuteness so i'm going to look somewhere else (if it exists) where the laws of rationality still apply.
ok.
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