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Hey, Quilter, you asked for the info. I didn't say you would like it.
It's impossible to convey everything that Celente has said, because he's been doing trends for 20 years. Those were just his latest trends for 2011. He constantly comes out with new information for subscribers.
Corporations use him as a consultant because he's been more right than wrong. He predicted the rise of the "clean foods movement" and predicts it will become more mass market. He is also predicting the rise of a viable third party, which will be Progressive Libertarian.
Actually, he is not completely devoid of hope. He has predicted a second American revolution and renaissance. It's just that we're going to go through hell to get there, because there's no way to avoid the fallout of the mess we've gotten into.
Last edited by Shooting Stars; 02-03-2011 at 02:48 PM..
The Daily Reckoning web site and the Trends Research web site have managed to gain my respect in part because they called the bubble when everyone else was insisting we didn't have one.
They looked at the underlying fundamentals and called it like they saw it.
Thanks to them and others, we avoided personal disaster in real estate and invested in metals to protect ourselves against the devaluing of the currency.
While I'm not preparing for the end of the world in 2012, looking at where I have my retirement and savings money invested, I clearly am not betting on some amazing comeback, either. In fact, I am betting on more devaluation of the currency. The comparisons to Japan in the 90's are pretty alarming, and we are enthusiastically doing the exact same things we (rightly) criticized them for doing. I know a lot of people who idealize about us moving toward a European social welfare model, exactly while that model is failing.
Like SS, I pay a lot of attention to what the Mises Institute has to say. Jstubspt sounds like he reads similar things. In a world of Keynesian economists foundering around, an Austrian view is quite refreshing, and I dare say a lot more accurate in understanding the causal factors of what is happening. Many of the Austrian school economists have been forecasting the current slump for some time, some with uncanny accuracy. The warnings started coming out of the woodwork in the 2005-2006 time frame. The good news is most don't think this is hopeless, but the plan for getting out of this is about exactly the opposite of what we have been doing.
When I am evaluating the economy and how to position the Mules to best survive/prosper, I don't want happy and magic fairy dust. I prefer facts, trends, historical comparisons and rational thinking, even if it hurts. Rational thinking is not to be confused with popular thinking. It sometimes leads you in directions you had hoped you would not go.
Before I get in over my head.... here's a quick question before we get too far off track on the Keynesians and the Austrians.
Would you purchase a home in this market or advise a friend or family member to do so, realizing that no one can predict where the bottom is, and it would be prudent to buy when the combination of prices and low interest is financially favorable to find a great deal. Even if your new house doesn't appreciate at 10% a year, will you be happy with your decision even if the market remains at let's say a slow but steady 2% appreciation for the next 5 to 8 years? (Recognizing that this scenario would best apply to first time buyers, and retirees looking to downsize.)
Or are you more interested in your house "making money" for you?
Last edited by QuilterChick; 02-03-2011 at 03:40 PM..
Reason: typo
I don't look at a house as an investment. I look at it as a place to live.
I'm not worried about big gains as long as the house keeps up with inflation. My worst fear would be ending up upside-down - the house worth less than I can sell it for.
My ex-husband owned a condo he bought in 1982 at the height of the market in his city. By the time I came along, that condo was not worth half of what he paid for it. We were forced to live there because it would cost too much to pay the difference between the mortgage and what it would sell for. It was a hardship because that condo was too small for two people. To this day, it has never regained the value he paid for it.
I will NEVER be in that position again.
I'd have to consider the whole picture - how is my business going and what is it's future?, how does the future look for the town?, how does the house's price compare in the current market and a possible worse market?, and most importantly - would I be happy in the house (and town) forever if I couldn't sell it?
I am not adverse to buying a house; but I am cautious. I no longer think of real estate as entirely liquid these days. If I buy a home, you can be sure that I will consider it a "forever home".
Personally, the first thing I'm going to be working on is making sure I'm located in a town I want to stay in. If I stay here in Hiawassee, then my ideal house would be lake view. Even prime lakefront lots have taken a beating here, but they will hold more value than anything else.
Like SS, I pay a lot of attention to what the Mises Institute has to say. Jstubspt sounds like he reads similar things.
In a world of Keynesian economists foundering around, an Austrian view is quite refreshing, and I dare say a lot more accurate in understanding the causal factors of what is happening.
That's it.
I trust advice with the Austrian view, but most talking-head economists have a Keynesian view, and that view has dominated U.S. policy.
Quilter, you won't get in over your head. Just read at The Daily Reckoning and The Mises Institute web sites. It will all become very very clear.
I'm always open to new information and willing to test it's accuracy. These sites make economics and the market interesting. My friend says what he learned about it in college was useless anyway.
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That's it.
