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Old 10-16-2020, 05:35 AM
 
Location: The Driftless Area, WI
4,753 posts, read 1,985,481 times
Reputation: 11299

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If you torture the numbers long enough & hard enough, you can get them to confess to anything.

All three of the papers cited conclude the same thing-- masks can SLOW the spread of the bug, not prevent it....I'm not so sure that should be our goal--The longer we have the bug around, the longer we have to deal with all the economic, social & psychological baggage it's producing.

Baseball lends itself so well to visualizing the meaning of statistics: Suppose we have a team with a line up of nine .333 hitters. That means in the next 100 team At Bats, we can expect 33 hits, or it can mean that for any given guy, in his own next 100 ABs he can expect 33 hits.--->

So masks that are 90% effective means that 100 people wearing masks and going out in public today where they are likely to be exposed to the virus, 10 can be expected to catch it, OR one guy going out in public 10 times can be expected to catch it at least once....How many times does one guy need to catch it?

The meta-analysis papers have to torture those numbers a lot in order to conclude that maybe masks help slow the spread. The way the papers hem & haw in the conclusions, I get the impression the authors are exhibiting more wishful thinking than sound analysis.

In regards WI
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/hosp-data.htm

We have ~11,000 hospital beds, with ~1800 empty and ~1000 being used by CoViD pts...Does that make us dangerously over-utilized?

BTW- 6% of healthcare workers have had CoViD;...170,000 total cases in WI with population 5.8M for a rate of 3%...How well do masks work?
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Old 10-16-2020, 07:05 AM
 
Location: Bay View, Milwaukee
2,482 posts, read 4,586,207 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guidoLaMoto View Post
If you torture the numbers long enough & hard enough, you can get them to confess to anything.
Does that also apply to the study you posted, or just to the ones that support mask-wearing?

Quote:
All three of the papers cited conclude the same thing-- masks can SLOW the spread of the bug, not prevent it....I'm not so sure that should be our goal--The longer we have the bug around, the longer we have to deal with all the economic, social & psychological baggage it's producing.
All three papers cited generally support wearing masks.

From a wide and overarching view of things, you may be correct that masks can only slow the virus and not prevent it, but at an individual scale, wearing masks may help ensure that the people who are best equipped to handle infection are generally more likely to contract the virus.

Additionally, slowing the spread of the virus via masks is supposed to help "flatten the curve." Sure, if there's no vaccine in sight, most people with any public interaction may eventually catch the virus, but most communities don't want this to happen all at once. Though Wisconsin hasn't quite seen the high spikes that NYC and Madrid and Northern Italy have seen, there are spikes nonetheless. Everyone should have a chance at a hospital bed and other remedies if needed, so slowing the spread of the virus can help in this regard.

This is what the CDC and others have been saying all along.

Quote:
Baseball lends itself so well to visualizing the meaning of statistics: Suppose we have a team with a line up of nine .333 hitters. That means in the next 100 team At Bats, we can expect 33 hits, or it can mean that for any given guy, in his own next 100 ABs he can expect 33 hits.--->

So masks that are 90% effective means that 100 people wearing masks and going out in public today where they are likely to be exposed to the virus, 10 can be expected to catch it, OR one guy going out in public 10 times can be expected to catch it at least once....How many times does one guy need to catch it?
Part of the point, though, is when the guy catches it and under what circumstances.

It's helpful to talk about pandemics from an abstract, statistical scale, but we're also talking about real human beings here.


Quote:
The meta-analysis papers have to torture those numbers a lot in order to conclude that maybe masks help slow the spread. The way the papers hem & haw in the conclusions, I get the impression the authors are exhibiting more wishful thinking than sound analysis.
Two of the documents are reports on studies, not the studies themselves. It would be impossible to judge the ultimate analytical quality of the studies without seeing them firsthand.

Quote:
In regards WI
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/hosp-data.htm

We have ~11,000 hospital beds, with ~1800 empty and ~1000 being used by CoViD pts...Does that make us dangerously over-utilized?

BTW- 6% of healthcare workers have had CoViD;...170,000 total cases in WI with population 5.8M for a rate of 3%...How well do masks work?
If the healthcare workers in question weren't wearing masks, perhaps 6.1% or 7% or +% would have the virus. We don't know, do we? And I'm not sure we ever could know, unless there's a legit way to set up a controlled experiment in which some healthcare workers aren't wearing masks, and others are.

At an individual level (not just speaking from a sweeping statistical point of view): Would you be okay interacting with healthcare workers who aren't wearing masks? I know I sure wouldn't be okay with that.

If you think that wearing masks doesn't make a difference, or if we're all going to get the virus anyway so we just shouldn't bother, then did you at any time consider contracting the virus on purpose? It seems like a misguided idea to me, but some people have been doing that.
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Old 10-16-2020, 05:43 PM
 
Location: The Driftless Area, WI
4,753 posts, read 1,985,481 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Empidonax View Post
If you think that wearing masks doesn't make a difference, or if we're all going to get the virus anyway so we just shouldn't bother, then did you at any time consider contracting the virus on purpose? It seems like a misguided idea to me, but some people have been doing that.
I've been saying for months that Americans under 45 y/o should go about their business as usual. It's kinda like volunteering for the military in WW II--only much safer. One million US casualties then...and ~6000 Covid deaths in the U45 demographic now. The word "patriotism" comes to mind, but we all know that's Politically Incorrect these days among The Intelligentsia.

OTOH- 80% of deaths have been in the 65+ group. We old fogeys never go out anyways, so sequestration is no big deal to us.

The sooner we get a high number of "recovered", the sooner everybody is safer.
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Old 10-16-2020, 11:00 PM
 
3,885 posts, read 1,746,276 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guidoLaMoto View Post
I've been saying for months that Americans under 45 y/o should go about their business as usual. It's kinda like volunteering for the military in WW II--only much safer. One million US casualties then...and ~6000 Covid deaths in the U45 demographic now. The word "patriotism" comes to mind, but we all know that's Politically Incorrect these days among The Intelligentsia.

OTOH- 80% of deaths have been in the 65+ group. We old fogeys never go out anyways, so sequestration is no big deal to us.

The sooner we get a high number of "recovered", the sooner everybody is safer.
You are far removed from the average rural Wisconsinite just by acknowledging coronavirus is real. Bars up north are packed with elderly maskless folk because the "China virus is a hoax." The Driftless area is the most sane rural region in the state luckily.
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Old 10-17-2020, 05:48 AM
 
Location: The Driftless Area, WI
4,753 posts, read 1,985,481 times
Reputation: 11299
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewjdeg View Post
You are far removed from the average rural Wisconsinite just by acknowledging coronavirus is real. Bars up north are packed with elderly maskless folk because the "China virus is a hoax." The Driftless area is the most sane rural region in the state luckily.

??? That doesn't explain the case distribution map. https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-...htm#rate%20map Dane, Milwaukee, Kenosha & Racine counties, where all the smart, mask wearing liberals live, are the hardest hit....Maybe it's all the histamine in the beer and calcium in the cheese that protects the rubes?

Don't forget obesity is a risk factor. We're political refugees here from IL. My lovely wife of 40 yrs, who could use a 60 lb tune-up herself, is referred to as Twiggy by the neighbors.
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Old 10-17-2020, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Bay View, Milwaukee
2,482 posts, read 4,586,207 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guidoLaMoto View Post
??? That doesn't explain the case distribution map. https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-...htm#rate%20map Dane, Milwaukee, Kenosha & Racine counties, where all the smart, mask wearing liberals live, are the hardest hit....Maybe it's all the histamine in the beer and calcium in the cheese that protects the rubes?
It couldn't be that because Wisconsin has the Mars Cheese Castle, and that area is surrounded by Covid cases!

But seriously, the case distribution seems to have much to do with population density, but there are some twists.

The map shows that some self-assured, anti-masker, conservative zones such as Washington County and the Fox Valley-Green Bay corridor have proportionately high caseloads.

These areas are not as high-density as Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha, but they are high density compared to the hamlets of rural Wisconsin.

(BTW, ultra-liberal Dane is shown in a lighter blue (2320.7), probably due to lower population density, physical distancing, and masking up.)

Did you check out the case load index for some of these counties?

Milwaukee's figure is 3605.1 per 100,000 people. Racine's is 3089.1. Kenosha's is 2534.3.

Now, let's look at some conservative counties with significant density clusters:

Brown County (Green Bay)-- 4945.6
Outagamie County (Appleton)-- 3943.6
Winnebago County (OshKosh)-- 4127.7

There are even some conservative, high-load counties that are less urbanized:

Calumet County-- 4384.8
Waupaca County-- 3594.2
Kewaunee County-- 4307.5

Some outright rural, conservative counties north/northwest of Green Bay-Fox Valley have similarly high caseloads:

Oconto County-- 4502.6
Forest County-- 4346.9
Shawano County-- 4486.8

In almost all cases cited here, the numbers exceed Milwaukee County's numbers.

Dane County's index is lower. The index for Kenosha and Racine is lower.

Perhaps these folks should have taken a cue from the liberals and masked up. It isn't hard to do.

Last edited by Empidonax; 10-17-2020 at 09:59 AM..
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Old 10-17-2020, 11:14 AM
 
Location: The Driftless Area, WI
4,753 posts, read 1,985,481 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Empidonax View Post
.... masked up. It isn't hard to do.
Actually the authorities in town here have been requesting for several yeas now that I wear a mask in public . I'm so ugly, the Boogey Man keeps a nite lite on in his room because he's afraid I'm hiding under the bed.
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Old 10-17-2020, 12:13 PM
 
Location: Rural Wisconsin
10,977 posts, read 3,243,743 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Justabystander View Post
The Wisconsin culture is well...............different. Fish fries, taverns everywhere, cheeseheads. Culver's. Walmarts full of guns and people in fatigues, and just dumb uneducated people in small towns who swear by Trump and his cult followers. Covid away!
Stereotype much?

Perhaps that is the way it is in SOME counties or communities. Not in mine. Not by a long shot!
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Old 10-17-2020, 12:53 PM
 
3,885 posts, read 1,746,276 times
Reputation: 3996
Quote:
Originally Posted by guidoLaMoto View Post
??? That doesn't explain the case distribution map. https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-...htm#rate%20map Dane, Milwaukee, Kenosha & Racine counties, where all the smart, mask wearing liberals live, are the hardest hit....Maybe it's all the histamine in the beer and calcium in the cheese that protects the rubes?

Don't forget obesity is a risk factor. We're political refugees here from IL. My lovely wife of 40 yrs, who could use a 60 lb tune-up herself, is referred to as Twiggy by the neighbors.
Check the per capita data champ.
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Old 10-17-2020, 05:06 PM
 
Location: The Driftless Area, WI
4,753 posts, read 1,985,481 times
Reputation: 11299
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewjdeg View Post
Check the per capita data champ.
Check the geographical distribution...Just what you'd expect from something like an infectious agent that spreads like electricity from one place to the adjacent places.

Going back to the new research I mentioned earlier here: coming in contact with an infected person & frequenting bars & restaurants was associated with a 2.5x higher risk of becoming infected, while mask wearing behavior was not associated with an increased or decreased risk in either the infected nor non-infected group.

If you go near the virus, the mask doesn't help.

Those Deplorables out in the boonies just like to party. The population density inside a country roadhouse on a Saturday night is as high as that in a Madison Starbucks at any time, I guess.

ps/ I choose to ignore the personal reference. I don't feel it's fair to get in a battle of wits with an unarmed man.
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