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For the U.S., I think that its projected growth rate which you mention (33%) is for 2060, rather than for 2050.
Personally, I would prefer high population growth rates for the near future for countries which might very well be able to sustain much more people (including with technological advances), such as the U.S., Canada, Russia, et cetera. However, for countries which are already arguably overpopulated, such as Bangladesh, I would prefer a population decline, though probably at a slower rate/pace than Ukraine and Japan. As for the world in general, I don't necessarily have a problem with the current population growth rate and trends in the world in itself/themselves, but I do have a program with the population growth/decline rate in some of the areas and countries in the world.
I personally think the world has just about got enough people and would like to see growth near Japan, in reality of course it's not going to happen.
As for Australia, I am not sure? Right now the population is growing quite rapidly, it went up 8.3% in 5 years from 2006 to 2011, a rate well above the world average, and about 2.5 times above the average of the OECD countries, if that keeps up we would be looking at 75-90% population growth up to 2050, again that is not going to happen.
Obviously oz is still a small sparsely populated country, however almost all the population growth is going into Brisbane/Gold Coast, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. For one I would like to see it spread out a bit more, no reason at all why Australia could not get a large city to it's north, with plenty of rainfall, and being much closer to our major export markets it would make a lot of sense if cities like cairns or Darwin became major population centres.
Last edited by danielsa1775; 11-01-2013 at 09:52 PM..
For the U.S., I think that its projected growth rate which you mention (33%) is for 2060, rather than for 2050.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dunno what to put here
The population of the UK is expected to be 70 million by 2027
I tried to be consistent in using one database maintained by US census department. But I recognize that it does conflict with other sources of information. The US census has had very little luck in projecting population changes from one census to another, in the 1990's it couldn't have anticipated the illegal immigration.
Ukraine is usually the country of over 30 million that is losing population the fastest. Japan for a country over 100 million. Hungary was the first country to stabilize population in the modern era (circa 1981).
Italy is the largest country that will stabilize having nearly the same population in 2050.
Most of the larger countries will continue to get larger. Ranked by population change from 2013-2050 (according to database).
Change - Country - Population 2013
-15.75% Japan 127,253,075
-11.84% Germany 81,147,265
-8.84% Russia 142,500,482
-3.40% China 1,349,585,838
...
12.24% United Kingdom 63,395,574
15.57% Brazil 201,009,622
19.52% Indonesia 251,160,124
20.22% Vietnam 92,477,857
25.11% Turkey 80,694,485
25.28% Iran 79,853,900
27.26% Mexico 116,220,947
33.44% United States 316,668,567
...
35.69% India 1,220,800,359
50.51% Pakistan 193,238,868
52.86% Bangladesh 163,654,860
61.64% Egypt 85,294,388
62.66% Philippines 105,720,644
....
91.78% Congo(Kinshasa) 75,507,308
130.61% Nigeria 174,507,539
142.94% Ethiopia 93,877,025
145.71% Tanzania 48,261,942
168.93% Uganda 34,758,809
Many people are surprised to know that Latin America is stabilizing, albeit not for decades. The USA will become the population growth leader in the Western Hemisphere (still fueled by immigration)
India will grow at the same rate as the US?! Country is way overpopulated as it is, though.
Same percentage rate, but the country is almost four times as large. Keep in mind that while the USA has replacement level fertility (unlike Europe) it's real growth is driven by immigration. India has a negative net migration.
Births in India are 24.7 million per year at present and are predicted to drop to 22.0 million by the year 2050 .
Births in USA are 4.33 million per year at present and are predicted to rise to 5.38 million by the year 2050 .
Population growth doesn't matter. The world can easily accommodate double its present population, and it is generally held that the population will stabilize before that.
What matters is how wealth, food, health care, etc. is distributed to the population. The current model is not doing a very good job, as even the enlightened USA is currently experiencing a wealth-distribution crisis, in which even a stable population would have more and more people falling off the economic cliff.
In the past couple of decades alone, human technology has created the capacity to feed and care for five billion more people, but the population has increased by only one billion, and the resources have barely been able to reach even that billion, through inefficient (if not intentionally misdirected) distribution of assets.
The children represent the margin of population expansion, and are being systematically excluded from the wealth expansion. It is possible that there is not a single nation to be found on the planet, in which people who are raising children are seeing their wealth increase apace with people who are not raising children. Exacerbated further by the fact that a disproportionate number of children are being raised by the families who are economically marginalized, condemning them to a repetition of poverty.
I think having a population pattern like Japan is most ideal. The world has too many people, but I do not believe in draconian measures to curb population growth. If societies naturally experience population decline, that is the most ideal in my mind.
By the way, PacoMartin, what is this "zero population growth" business? Just call it as it is, population decline. No need for Newspeak
By the way, PacoMartin, what is this "zero population growth" business? Just call it as it is, population decline. No need for Newspeak
The phrase ZPG was popular in the early 1960's. Birth control techniques and abortion were not major players in world demographics and humanity was experiencing the highest growth measured by percentage in it's history before or since.
The concept of population decline without warfare or famine was unknown. ZPG was a theoretical ideal. It wasn't until the 1980's when Hungary peaked in population and began to decline that it was considered as a possibility. More Eastern European countries began peaking in the 1990's, and it began to gain some serious consideration as a factor in world politics.
At the time the term ZPG was invented it was conceived of as a long term status that a country could enter where total fertility rate was 2.1 for an indefinite amount of time. I don't think anyone understood that society would evolve to the point that TFR would crash through the replacement level.
While TFR in the USA is roughly 2.1 it went much lower by 1975, and has come back up because of immigration.
The major country predicted to be as close as possible to it's 2013 population in the year 2050 is Italy. However, it won't be the way the 1960's thinkers viewed ZPG. It will be because immigration will balance out the sub-replacement fertility of the people that live there now.
Many thinkers think that the societies with TFR = 1.3-1.4 will suffer a social backlash and increase their TFR. However, it won't reach replacement levels, but get back to 1.7 .
The idea of a world in demographic balance, where every country or region has a TFR of 2 give or take 20% may never happen.
There is a possibility of a Malthusian disaster in Africa that will make every other world war, famine, or plague in history look minor in comparison.
Country with a population crisis? Haiti is one of the worst.
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