Western/Northern Europe vs. Canada for lower income (tax, place to live)
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Roll your eyes all you want...You were the one who said the bubble will burst now you're saying it could be a 'slow decline' ... A slow decline or soft landing is what many are predicting and isn't a burst..
No, a burst hurts a lot but a slow decline hurts just as much. We are experiencing a slow decline over here and things are a mess and are getting worse. People even think a burst would have been better because then a country knows what it is up to and can recover after that. A slow decline may last a decade and things gradually get worse for that time before a recovery can start. Also see what happened to the Japanese economy when their bubble slowly emptied, they are speaking about 'two lost decades' already.
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Originally Posted by florian73
That's funny, because I like the dutch people for their honesty, directness, and openness. Yes, it's rude, but I love it. It took a long time to me to understand it. I like the dutch modesty. The lack of curtains. They dress better than Germans. And very important they don't wear that often those stupid bike helmets. There are so many securitiy maniacs in Germany, terrible.
I dislike their tendency to be louder, I really love quietness. Dutch truck drivers are great, but there are more bad car drivers than in Germany.
I agree we dress better but for the rest Germany is really my favorite country in every aspect. The rudeness and loudness of Dutch people really bothers me. I have lived abroad for 10 years and it really surprised me it is that bad after moving back. I am also planning to move to Germany in a year or so, not only because I prefer the German people but for the space, political system, health care system and costs of living too.
No, a burst hurts a lot but a slow decline hurts just as much. We are experiencing a slow decline over here and things are a mess and are getting worse. People even think a burst would have been better because then a country knows what it is up to and can recover after that. A slow decline may last a decade and things gradually get worse for that time before a recovery can start. Also see what happened to the Japanese economy when their bubble slowly emptied, they are speaking about 'two lost decades' already.
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We don't know how much of a decline we are going to face, how long it will be or even if we are in a decline. The housing market is still very strong and has been for awhile.. You mention other smaller European countries and Japan but these aren't corollary comparisons to Canada.. Canada is a huge country with a relatively small population but is resource rich. We have the 3rd largest proven oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela and also have a sound banking system with solid fundamentals (something the U.S did not). The most comparative country to Canada is actually Australia.. Both Canada and Australia are large countries in area, growing at a similar clip, similarly sized large cities and number relative to their overall population, resource rich with solidly consistent stable economies (always seem to have something the world needs and it is a constant demand for those resources), small populations relative to size in area but 'over' valued housing markets.. Guess what, Economists from outside Australia are predicting their housing bubble will burst and guess what the Australian Economists are saying - exactly the same as Canadian economists are about the Canadian housing market...
Either Canadian and Australian economist know their economy best or they are in lockstep together - completely delusional.. I think i'll go with the former.
@fusion2 Dutch economists also said Dutch house prices would never decrease and came up with all kinds of arguments and theories why that would be the case, population growth, strong economy, scarcity of land. And now those same economists are predicting prices will increase again when they are still dropping. Relatives of mine have been looking at an apartment two weeks ago which dropped nearly 50% in price from what it was sold for 5 years ago.
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Originally Posted by viribusunitis
As in lack of "Vorhänge"? What the hell are you talking about?
True and very strange. Dutch houses have huge street facing windows usually without curtains and you can just look inside and watch the people in the house. Really bizarre. I don't do it myself, we have curtains which make it impossible to look inside.
@fusion2 Dutch economists also said Dutch house prices would never decrease and came up with all kinds of arguments and theories why that would be the case, population growth, strong economy, scarcity of land. And now those same economists are predicting prices will increase again when they are still dropping. Relatives of mine have been looking at an apartment two weeks ago which dropped nearly 50% in price from what it was sold for 5 years ago.
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That's one of the key differences between Australia and Canada Vs countries like the Netherlands and Japan for instance... I'm pretty sure in Australia's case and definitely in Canada's case it is one of the very very few first world countries that is a net exporter of energy.. There isn't scarcity of land we have tons of it with Oil, production of hydroelectricity and abundance of minerals and resources the world needs and not to mention along with Brazil the top two or three countries with the most fresh water in the world..
Water: the oil of the future - Canadian Business - Since Canada was discovered by members of your own continent and pulled away from the biggest nature lovers in the world - it has always had resources the world needs and that will continue for a long long time to come...
We naturally have growing cities and some unique cases like in Canada where a city like Toronto is surrounded by green areas so we choose to densify instead of destroying it but its a choice.. The governments in Canada could instantly defuse the rising cost of housing by relaxing densification practices which isn't difficult for a country that is the second largest in the world lol.. think about it. There are solid fundamentals with Canada's growing housing market. A strong resource rich economy, political practices that fuel densification not the other way around and growing cities where people want and choose to live for lifestyle and jobs!! With due respect to the Netherlands it is a small country and doesn't have the almost endless supply of various natural resources that Canada and Australia has. What this means is that as long as these countries are resource rich and able to export things the world needs, maintain good financial management practices, and continue to have stable and good political governance, there is no reason to think that this won't continue. It will have natural cycles of stronger and weaker periods but those weaker periods won't be as pronounced as smaller countries which don't have the same fundamentals.
Think about it, If some or many of your own economists can't get it right than why would some anonymous posters on an internet forum who don't know all the nuances of the housing market of countries like Canada and Australia trying to find a one size fits all approach, why would they be the final authority on the matter?
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Originally Posted by viribusunitis As in lack of "Vorhänge"? What the hell are you talking about?
True and very strange. Dutch houses have huge street facing windows usually without curtains and you can just look inside and watch the people in the house. Really bizarre. I don't do it myself, we have curtains which make it impossible to look inside.
Most people in Germany believe that an old curtains tax is the reason for the lack of curtains in the Netherlands. Dutch people told me that it has to do with the calvinism in the Netherlands. In this branch of protestantism modesty is very important. So the people will show that they don't have something to hide. Look in our house, we don't have any luxury in it. From the street you can often look through the whole living room to the backyard. Most homes are very well furnished. Very nice. As far as I know this tradition depends slightly on the region. I am not sure how many dutch people today live calvinism virtues, but independently from that they are proud about the calvinism.
True and very strange. Dutch houses have huge street facing windows usually without curtains and you can just look inside and watch the people in the house. Really bizarre. I don't do it myself, we have curtains which make it impossible to look inside.
Good place to attract peeping Tom's I guess lol...
I don't see the context between the stability of the housing market and the abundance of energy and natural ressources. The house prices increase much stronger than the income. In 1997 the average house price was 4.9 times the average pretax income. In 2013 this number rised to 7.8. The wages increased by 2.6 per cent, but the house prices gone up 5.4 per cent per year. Do you believe that this is a good development? The people have to work longer and longer to afford a house. And of course this leads to less money for other spendings.
The object of a house is to live in. And it is sad when the people have to work more and more to live in a house. You mentioned that the value of the houses increase and the people get wealthier. They only get richer when they are able to sell their houses. If more people want to sell their houses than the house prices will fall. The value of the houses and the wealth of the people exist only on the paper. Ultimately a house is only a house and the only object of a house is to live in.
You mentioned the net energy exports of Canada and the wealth of natural ressources. But despite that Canada is unable to manage a trade surplus. Canada's net international investment position in 2012 was -252 Bil C$. That's about 14% of GDP? Canada as a whole lives beyond its means. And there must be a reduction of domestic goods consumption in the future (in relation to GDP).
The Netherlands in contrast has constantly trade surpluses and their net inernational investment position reach 50.9% of their GDP. But that doesn't protect them for being slip in the housing crisis.
Of course there will be a contrary movement in canadians house prices in the future. I don't know how this change will look like. A bursting bubble? a slow decline over several years or below average price escalations over two decades? I really don't know. But there will be a course correction, that's clear.
I don't see the context between the stability of the housing market and the abundance of energy and natural ressources. The house prices increase much stronger than the income. In 1997 the average house price was 4.9 times the average pretax income. In 2013 this number rised to 7.8. The wages increased by 2.6 per cent, but the house prices gone up 5.4 per cent per year. Do you believe that this is a good development? The people have to work longer and longer to afford a house. And of course this leads to less money for other spendings.
The object of a house is to live in. And it is sad when the people have to work more and more to live in a house. You mentioned that the value of the houses increase and the people get wealthier. They only get richer when they are able to sell their houses. If more people want to sell their houses than the house prices will fall. The value of the houses and the wealth of the people exist only on the paper. Ultimately a house is only a house and the only object of a house is to live in.
You mentioned the net energy exports of Canada and the wealth of natural ressources. But despite that Canada is unable to manage a trade surplus. Canada's net international investment position in 2012 was -252 Bil C$. That's about 14% of GDP? Canada as a whole lives beyond its means. And there must be a reduction of domestic goods consumption in the future (in relation to GDP).
The Netherlands in contrast has constantly trade surpluses and their net inernational investment position reach 50.9% of their GDP. But that doesn't protect them for being slip in the housing crisis.
Of course there will be a contrary movement in canadians house prices in the future. I don't know how this change will look like. A bursting bubble? a slow decline over several years or below average price escalations over two decades? I really don't know. But there will be a course correction, that's clear.
The housing market in Canada is tremendously linked to places like Toronto and Vancouver. These are places people want to live in and so supply and demand will prevail as will location. I don't think you are going to find that in Toronto you're going to get a bubble bursting. Again it is a growing city that has geographic constraints that are imposed by the government and people choose to live in these places for lifestyle and jobs. No Toronto is not NYC but even in the meltdown of 2008 the city was still a desirable place to live and I don't think in any long term manner was the city's position as a global hub that attracts people to it compromised in disastrous terms. NYC is still growing like a weed and even though people pay truly outrageous prices for rent and a mortgage they do and why? They choose to.. they could commute from further afield but they choose to live where the action is. Does this mean NYC's real estate market is going to blow.. prolly not and I think you'll find that in Toronto that will be the case as well. Corrections always happen and there is already a slowdown in new highrise proposals in the city (NYC has ebbed and flowed in that regard as do all places) and Developers are taking a wait and see approach (but make no mistake there are still proposals and new building approved for construction). At the end of the day, the investment made in Real estate in places that people desire to live and work will still over the life of the debt and interest incurred in that investment pay off and the person will be better off and increase their net worth as a result.
The overall economic conditions and what a country has in resources and potential resources is very important to long term economic prosperity for its citizens. It means JOBS!! Even when one industry starts to ebb another crops up and creates flow - that is called a dynamic economy and that is what Canada has.. It is the cycle of things.. Again Canadians consume more and take on debt more because they choose to and can sustain it.. You don't seem to understand that. You may think its sad that people work more for that house but that is their choice. Many take in a student or boarder to offset that high mortgage payment, mommy and Daddy will help to pay for that new condo for their son or daughter who has taken their first job in the city - or a retiree who has the cash to spend on it will buy it because they want to be close to live theatre and culture, or an investor from another country or even within will buy it and rent it out.. These things aren't so malleable as you contend..
I spend more now than I did at any point in the past. In terms of percentage of my income, I save less than I did before. I make good money and I simply spend a lot more. I can afford to take on debt as long as my overall net worth puts me in the green over time. Sometimes you have to consume more than what you expend to prosper so Canada doesn't need your accounting analysis on trade surpluses vs deficits lol.. It is an inescapable fact that Canada is a resource rich country that will always have things the world needs.. If we choose to consume more because we can than that is our choice and it has been sustained this way for decades.. Why do you thing everything is going to blow like a supernova... people like you have been throwing this fear mongering around for a long long time... We shall see now won't we but don't be surprised that in 10, 15, 20 and 30 years places like Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Montreal will have a middle class that is amongst the most prosperous in the world and that our RE market will still be expensive but will still offer buyers an excellent value proposition over time. Wow, some people in Europe are far more concerned about the finances of Canadians than Canadians are and think they have the country and its citizens all figured out....
btw Canadians don't just have the richest Middle Class in the world due to paper value.. It is based on Median Incomes..
Now excuse, me it is Saturday and as a Middle to Upper Class income earner - I am going to go out shopping... for things that I can AFFORD lol.. wants yes not needs... WANTS.... because I can and don't worry, I contribute and have an healthy/diversified investment portfolio.
@fusion2 Dutch economists also said Dutch house prices would never decrease and came up with all kinds of arguments and theories why that would be the case, population growth, strong economy, scarcity of land. And now those same economists are predicting prices will increase again when they are still dropping. Relatives of mine have been looking at an apartment two weeks ago which dropped nearly 50% in price from what it was sold for 5 years ago.
True and very strange. Dutch houses have huge street facing windows usually without curtains and you can just look inside and watch the people in the house. Really bizarre. I don't do it myself, we have curtains which make it impossible to look inside.
I think it's normal in very wet climates. I've noticed the same phenomenon in Vancouver and it's not necessarily like that in English Canadian communities situated in dryer regions. Maybe it's an instinct to maximize sunlight.
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but for the rest Germany is really my favorite country in every aspect. The rudeness and loudness of Dutch people really bothers me. I have lived abroad for 10 years and it really surprised me it is that bad after moving back. I am also planning to move to Germany in a year or so, not only because I prefer the German people but for the space, political system, health care system and costs of living too.
