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Old 08-28-2014, 01:28 AM
 
266 posts, read 674,504 times
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Europe has been multicultural for millennia (most famous example the Moors and Jews from the Middle East/ North Africa, Gipsies from India, Huns, Cossacks from present-day China etc) and been accepting immigrants from outside the continent for millennia also due to invasion, nomadism, tribes, trade routes and the age of empires. This is why many Europeans look the way they do, from Black haired natives in Scandinavia, to the large amount of African genes in northern England. The most recent gauges colonialism, post-colonialism and globalisation.

Au contraire Europe does assimilate it's immigrants fairly well (visit any European school for starters), but the initial generation will undeniably face problems from poverty to racism. One has to remember the extremism in the current geopolitical climate is a tiny fraction of the population, from either side. Remember Europe has nearly 60 million muslims, many of them living there for over 400 years since the Ottomans ruled the south - by comparison the US has 2.6 million.

Of the 550 terrorist incidents every year in Europe, the highest in 2009 was 4 were committed by muslims (0.7%). On average it's 0.4%. But of course those incidents are what gets all the headlines. In short The Bigger Picture.

France on the other hand... forced assimilation, social division, poverty correlating with race, ghettoism.
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Old 08-28-2014, 02:13 AM
 
Location: Phoenix
1,110 posts, read 1,380,011 times
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This could be one of the reasons why it was projected that China and India (or even Brazil) will dominate the economy in 2050.

Singapore is gearing towards baby bonuses as their means of enhancing their fertility rate however, most local couples would still prefer having 1-2 kids only. Singapore can always have PRC Chinese and India Indian immigrants to cover up the losses.
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Old 08-28-2014, 02:35 AM
 
14,611 posts, read 17,568,408 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smool View Post
In other words despite the fall in fertility, the planet will still have the 'hangover' period of rising populations for the next 2-3 generations, by which time we may come close to doubling in this period, and come close to extinction also (not so much too little, but too late).
In 1800 France had a population of 29 million, USA 5.3 million, England/Wales/Scotland 10.5 million.

So France was the first western nation to experience low fertility. In the 1890's for four years deaths outnumbered births. It wasn't until 1980 when in Hungary deaths began outnumbering births that this effect was repeated in the modern world. But of course, it didn't just last for four years, and Hungary now has the same population it has in the early 1960's.

By WWI,
France had a population of 39.6 million and 1.7 million people died.
United Kingdom had a population of 45.4 million and 1.0 million people died.
United States had a population of 92 million and 0.117 million people died.

What is interesting is that it doesn't really take a massive percentage of the population to emigrate to UK or Germany or France to completely change the demographics of those nations. The British Commonwealth of Nations is 2.328 billion people. The United Kingdom is only 2.75% if that group. So if only a small fraction of one percentage of the children of the Commonwealth want to emigrate, the UK will radically change.

Doubling our current population is a pretty extreme estimate. Most estimates are 50%-75% more. But long before then the incredible mismatch of aging populations, and young populations will be overwhelming.
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Old 08-28-2014, 02:54 AM
 
Location: Finland
24,128 posts, read 24,813,132 times
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One reason for the aging population are the post WWII baby boom generations who are retiring now en masse. The situation isn't really that bad in many European countries, but affects more or less dramatically only some, like Germany, Spain and Italy.

Europe isn't dying out.

For example:

USA: 2.1
Canada: 1.7

Iceland: 2.2
Ireland: 2.07
France, Sweden: 2.0
Norway: 1.95
UK: 1.94
Finland, Denmark: 1.87
Belgium: 1.84
NL: 1.79

...

Italy, Germany, Spain: 1.4

...

Hungary: 1.25
Latvia: 1.17
Bosnia: 1.15

BTW, the theory that "immigrants breed like rabbits" can't be proven. The birth rate of immigrants drop rapidly even within a generation. Having 8 kids in Somalia doesn't mean that a Somalian couple in Finland would have that number. It has been studied, and it's around 2.9 or something. INSEE has calculated that people born in Metropolitan France have a birth rate od 1.9 and immigrants around 2.15, equalling roughly the total 2.0.

It's all about healthcare and money. The richer the African countries get, the less children they have.
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Old 08-28-2014, 02:55 AM
 
16,431 posts, read 22,202,108 times
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Assimilation. Resistance is futile.
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Old 08-28-2014, 02:09 PM
 
3,065 posts, read 8,900,057 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greysholic View Post
Well I'm not surprised that these countries have the lowest birth rate.
When you can't see the future of where you're living in(except for maybe Germany I'd say),you don't want to have a baby.Having a baby would only ruin your own and the babies' lives.
Then there will be no child at all,so the future of these places are even darker,it's like a vicious circulation.

As for immigrants,it might work in Europe,but not in Asia.


The Asian countries listed are some of the top tourist destinations in the owrld and have large ex-pat enclaves. I'm sure they are more well off than the likes of Hungary and Serbia
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Old 08-29-2014, 12:50 AM
 
14,611 posts, read 17,568,408 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kent_moore View Post
Singapore is gearing towards baby bonuses as their means of enhancing their fertility rate however, most local couples would still prefer having 1-2 kids only. Singapore can always have PRC Chinese and India Indian immigrants to cover up the losses.
Any nation could theoretically make up population loss with immigration, but with Singapore at such an extreme position (below fertility rate of 1), even encouraging some couples simply to have a baby period would help their fertility rate to rise.

0.80 Singapore
0.93 Macau
1.11 Taiwan
1.17 Hong Kong
1.25 Korea,South
1.25 Virgin Islands,British
1.26 Bosnia and Herzegovina
1.29 Lithuania
1.29 Montserrat
1.30 Ukraine
1.32 Romania
1.33 Poland
1.33 Slovenia
1.35 Latvia
1.38 Andorra
1.39 Slovakia
1.40 Japan
1.41 Greece
1.42 Hungary
1.42 Italy
1.42 Serbia
1.43 Austria
1.43 Czech Republic
1.43 Germany
1.44 Bulgaria
1.45 Croatia
1.46 Cuba
1.46 Cyprus
1.46 Estonia
1.47 Belarus
1.48 Spain
1.49 San Marino
1.50 Albania
1.50 Thailand
1.51 Montenegro
1.52 Monaco
1.52 Portugal
1.54 Malta
1.54 Switzerland
1.55 China
1.55 Guernsey
1.56 Moldova
1.56 Saint Pierre and Miquelon
1.58 Saint Helena
1.59 Canada
1.59 Macedonia
1.61 Russia
1.63 SaintBarthelemy
1.64 Armenia
1.64 PuertoRico
1.65 Belgium
1.66 Jersey
1.68 Barbados
1.69 Liechtenstein
1.70 TurksandCaicosIslands
1.71 Palau
1.71 TrinidadandTobago
1.73 Denmark
1.73 Finland
1.74 Lebanon
1.75 Anguilla
1.75 Virgin Islands, U.S.
1.76 Maldives
1.76 Wallis and Futuna
1.77 Australia
1.77 Georgia
1.77 Luxembourg
1.77 Mauritius
1.77 Saint Lucia
1.78 Netherlands
1.78 Saint Kitts and Nevis
1.79 Brazil
1.80 Uzbekistan
1.81 Bahrain
1.81 SaintMartin
1.82 Brunei
1.84 Aruba
1.84 Chile
1.84 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
1.84 Uruguay
1.85 Iran
1.85 Vietnam
1.86 CaymanIslands
1.86 Norway
1.88 Iceland
1.88 Seychelles
1.88 Sweden
1.90 UnitedKingdom
1.91 Azerbaijan
1.91 CostaRica
1.92 Gibraltar
1.92 Qatar
1.94 IsleofMan
1.95 Bermuda
1.95 ElSalvador
1.95 FrenchPolynesia
1.96 Paraguay
1.97 Bahamas,The
1.98 Korea,North
1.99 NewCaledonia
1.99 Nicaragua
2.00 Ireland
2.00 Tunisia
2.01 NorthernMarianaIslands
2.01 Suriname
2.01 United States
2.02 Bhutan
2.03 AntiguaandBarbuda
2.05 Dominica
2.05 Jamaica
2.05 NewZealand
2.06 Greenland
2.07 Colombia
2.07 Libya
2.08 Curacao
2.08 France
2.08 Sint Maarten
2.08 Turkey
2.09 Grenada
2.10 Turkmenistan
2.13 Kosovo
2.13 SriLanka
2.14 Guyana
2.15 Morocco
2.17 SaudiArabia
2.18 Burma
2.18 Indonesia
2.22 Mongolia
2.22 Peru
2.23 SouthAfrica
2.25 Argentina
2.25 Namibia
2.27 CookIslands
2.29 Ecuador
2.29 Mexico
2.30 Nepal
2.34 CaboVerde
2.34 Kazakhstan
2.35 Venezuela
2.36 Dominican Republic
2.36 United Arab Emirates
2.37 Botswana
2.38 Faroe Islands
2.38 Guam
2.38 Panama
2.43 WORLD AS WHOLE
2.45 Bangladesh
2.47 Djibouti
2.51 Fiji
2.51 India
2.53 Kuwait
2.55 Micronesia,FederatedStatesof
2.56 Kiribati
2.58 Malaysia
2.62 Israel
2.66 Cambodia
2.68 Kyrgyzstan
2.68 Syria
2.76 Tajikistan
2.78 Algeria
2.78 Lesotho
2.79 Haiti
2.80 Bolivia
2.83 West Bank
2.86 Honduras
2.86 Oman
2.86 Pakistan
2.87 Egypt
2.88 Swaziland
2.90 Laos
2.93 Nauru
2.94 Samoa
2.98 American Samoa
2.99 Guatemala
3.02 Belize
3.03 Tuvalu
3.06 Philippines
3.22 Marshall Islands
3.24 PapuaNewGuinea
3.29 Jordan
3.36 SolomonIslands
3.36 Tonga
3.36 Vanuatu
3.41 Iraq
3.54 Kenya
3.56 Zimbabwe
3.63 Coted'Ivoire
3.76 Comoros
3.85 Gambia,The
3.92 Sudan
4.07 Mauritania
4.07 WesternSahara
4.09 Ghana
4.09 Yemen
4.14 Eritrea
4.24 GazaStrip
4.28 Madagascar
4.30 Guinea-Bissau
4.46 CentralAfricanRepublic
4.49 Gabon
4.52 Senegal
4.53 Togo
4.62 Rwanda
4.66 EquatorialGuinea
4.67 SaoTomeandPrincipe
4.68 Chad
4.73 Congo(Brazzaville)
4.80 Congo(Kinshasa)
4.81 Liberia
4.82 Cameroon
4.83 SierraLeone
4.93 Guinea
4.95 Tanzania
5.04 Benin
5.11 Timor-Leste
5.18 Malawi
5.23 Ethiopia
5.25 Nigeria
5.27 Mozambique
5.43 Afghanistan
5.43 Angola
5.43 SouthSudan
5.76 Zambia
5.93 BurkinaFaso
5.97 Uganda
6.08 Somalia
6.14 Burundi
6.16 Mali
6.89 Niger

Quote:
Originally Posted by kent_moore View Post
This could be one of the reasons why it was projected that China and India (or even Brazil) will dominate the economy in 2050.
The relationship between wealth and fertility rate is complex. It is believed that the most important reason why China has a healthier economy than India is that their fertility rate is sub replacement. Same for Brazil.

Generally nations with fertility rate higher than India are poor, except for the oil rich arab nations.
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Old 08-29-2014, 06:13 AM
 
Location: Tucson/Nogales
23,223 posts, read 29,051,044 times
Reputation: 32632
Incredible! Nicaragua/El Salvador/Costa Rica all fallen below 2.0.

These arrogant employers, with that attitude (Don't like your job/employer? Fine! I'll replace you with an eager immigrant!) may have to change their tune before long!

Could it be, one day, we'll be bidding for immigrants?
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Old 08-29-2014, 06:32 AM
 
14,611 posts, read 17,568,408 times
Reputation: 7783
Quote:
Originally Posted by tijlover View Post
These arrogant employers, with that attitude (Don't like your job/employer? Fine! I'll replace you with an eager immigrant!) may have to change their tune before long!

Could it be, one day, we'll be bidding for immigrants?
The census bureau predicts that by 2050 the US fertility rate will be higher than all but a handful of Western Hemisphere countries (Haiti, Bolivia, Guatemala, ...). Many of these countries have urbanized a great deal in the last few decades.

Because it is the most immediate impact on the USA the different growth rates in northern Latin America vs US and Canada is what most people view as the world growth issue. In reality it is a fairly minor blip compared to the skyrocketing rates in sub-saharan Africa, the Arab world, and the Indian subcontinent. These areas will stay high for half a century at least.


Even though fertility rates are dropping it takes a long time to stop the momentum. The average age is very young in these countries, and it will be decades before the reach zero population growth.

The Southern Cone (Chile, Argentina, Uruguay) and Brazil believes that their population growth is now stable enough that they should be able to join the European Union countries and Japan in being able to visit USA without a visa. The so called "visa waiver nations". Chile joined the Visa Waiver Program beginning March 31, 2014, and Argentina will be admitted soon.
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Old 08-29-2014, 09:43 AM
 
1,300 posts, read 961,140 times
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Some projections have the overall global population peaking at about 9 million around mid century and then declining.



World population to peak by 2055: report
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