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I can not say that there is great dissatisfaction with the government. Putin deftly directed discontent in the West. Sanctions, support for the Nazis in Kiev, strong anti-Putin propaganda - all this is now profitable to Putin. His support is very high.
Ways out of the economic crisis in Russia:
- Wait for higher oil prices. Very low prices are not profitable and also the United States, as the cost of shale gas is high enough. US can not long keep a very low price.
- Russia must gain access to the Chinese loans at favorable interest rates. Until then, the central bank should use their own savings.
- The central bank should calm down itself and calm the market.
- We need to develop more own market, not to depend on oil prices. For example, Russian farmers have to use retaliatory sanctions that prohibited the sale of products from Europe.
- Putin announced capital amnesty, which was illegally taken out of Russia. Perhaps someone wants to get the money back in the Russian economy.
2015 will be very difficult for the Russian economy. Prices will rise. But I do not think that there will be some kind of social or political turmoil. Level of trust Putin is very high.
Add:
1. Putin playing nice with the West and Ukraine
2. Putin acknowledging the downing of Malaysia Air
3. Putin giving Crimea back to Ukraine
There was a small chance to remove Putin from power in 2012, when the Russian economy was at the peak of the rise and society to talk about corruption, liberalization, etc. After the events in Ukraine, the matter is closed. Russia needs a strong hand to overcome the crisis. Military coup in Ukraine - the most stupid thing that the West has done lately.
Ukraine is now in the West?
I know democracy sucks right? How dare people rise up to get a rid of a tyrant. Too bad not everyone can be obedient Putin drones with no brains.
What is going on? Why more US sanctions now, when Russia is beaten down already?
Quote:
Obama has decided to sign legislation imposing further sanctions on Russia and authorizing additional aid to Ukraine, despite concerns that it will complicate his efforts to maintain a unified front with European allies, the White House said on Tuesday.
A cornered Putin could prove dangerous, as Russia's neighbors know well.
Sweden's defense minister went on TV a few days ago to announce new military readiness measures in response to Russia's military maneuvers.
The Baltic states, whose NATO membership commits the United States and others to intervene in their defense, worry Russia may make a move in their territory. Russian agents captured an Estonian official a few months ago. The Baltics -- Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia -- have fresh memories of being annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940.
Moscow's military muscle-flexing has not been limited to border states. Britain's Royal Air Force has intercepted several Russian bombers as they neared UK airspace. Norway, too, has intercepted Russian bombers. NATO says it has intercepted more than 100 Russian aircraft since the crisis over Ukraine started.
Kadyrov is not such "sociopath" as you might think and he is not "only tolerated" by Putin; in fact I think that he is hand-picked, and I'll explain to you why;
There is only one way to integrate such place as Chechnya into Russia - the Soviet way, with abolition of religion all over the place ( that includes both Chechnya and Russia,) which Russia can't afford at this point, because her own revival of Orthodoxy is needed for the support of the current government.
So the only other solution to this situation is to appoint a "moderate" muslim, loyal to Moscow, who would keep the radicals at bay.
One could always make a desert, call it peace, and send in the missionaries to bring the survivors into line. Such a strong handed move would be one Islamic extremists would hate but respect and fear more than simply trying to stamp out all religions.
Xenophobia towards the Oriental world is so deeply culturally ingrained that you (and the Prof) fail to appreciate it. Suggest to the Russians to replace their idolized Hermeses ans Land Cruisers with - I don't know- Bono Jiang or Huaiwei - they will laugh in your face. Xenophobia makes the Russians at this very moment hurl ethnic jokes towards the woman-head of the state bank. Sure, generally, this idea of reorientation is very good. Any other ethno-neutral country like Canada would just get down to work. With the Russians, the underwater part of the cultural iceberg would have to be melted at first.
Sorry, everything you describe here is not a valid argument.
Russians can easily re-orient their economy if circumstances will dictate them to.
Sorry, everything you describe here is not a valid argument.
Russians can easily re-orient their economy if circumstances will dictate them to.
To some extent. In the long term trends are pulling against them. India and China ultimately have competing interests. Russia and China have competing interests though the thinness of actual Russians on the ground in the east make it less easy for Russia to be vocal about this.
More importantly, Chinese and Indian factories want cheap commodities to help keep their manufactured goods. Russia needs high commodity prices.
The end result is that in the long run if Russia is isolated from the West, it falls more and more into China's pocket as it will lack any international partners as counterweights. Russia's current defense ties with India can last only as long as the Chinese are unwilling to press the issue of Russian control of its Far East. If that ever happens while Russia is isolated from the West it will have a great deal of trouble maintaining ties with anyone other than China.
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