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Old 05-11-2016, 07:48 PM
 
569 posts, read 549,448 times
Reputation: 286

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gentoo View Post
I'm not sure how it would not be a landslide if his main support is coming predominantly from white men and this wouldn't even be all white men. He has alienated white women, most Blacks, almost all Latinos and Middle Easterners. Asian voting patterns closely follow those of other minorities. I don't see how it could not be a landslide.
There is a difference between the brutal-honesty and brutal-twisting. I think Trump is the former.

Last edited by CPPU12345; 05-11-2016 at 07:56 PM.. Reason: English

 
Old 05-11-2016, 07:50 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
46,009 posts, read 53,324,806 times
Reputation: 15179
Quote:
Originally Posted by CTDominion View Post
April-May is around the time when presidential matchup polls start to gain predictive value.

I had fun reading the rest of your post.
Yea, however that Quinnipac poll was a bit of an outlier and has a tendency to get a Republican lean and a demographic skew . It shouldn't be dismissed but focusing on it by itself is misleading. Looking at the median poll is better.

Looking at state-by-state polls can be fun, but states generally move in sync with the national average. It's only for a very close race that the electoral college can have an effect. If Trump is losing or even tying Georgia, he's losing badly nation-wide. The average state poll shows a consistent swing of about 3 percentage points less Republican than 2012, about the same as 2008. With two big exceptions:

1) Utah has a wide shift to being much more Democratic. Only one poll, but it has Clinton winning narrowly. Mormons really hate Trump.
2) New York is more Republican than usual perhaps because it's Trump's home state. But it's so Democratic, he still loses by 20 points

Trump expands the battleground…to Utah and the Deep South

This article goes through a list of states that could switch for Trump. It argues that it'd be hard for Trump to win any of them; he's likely to lose as many Republicans as he could gain Democrats.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/11/up...ald-trump.html

Trump's election tactics are unusual, most likely they'd hurt him in an election but he could do some random that'd help him. He has little lose.
 
Old 05-11-2016, 07:54 PM
 
Location: San Diego, California Republic
16,588 posts, read 27,325,602 times
Reputation: 9048
Quote:
Originally Posted by CPPU12345 View Post
There is a difference between the brutal-honesty and brutal-twisting. I think Trump is the first one.
Your reply has nothing to do with the post you quoted.
 
Old 05-11-2016, 07:57 PM
 
Location: San Diego, California Republic
16,588 posts, read 27,325,602 times
Reputation: 9048
Quote:
Originally Posted by CTDominion View Post
Predictive value doesn't mean 100% accurate. It's an estimate that factors in contingencies like timed news events.
These polls change and will not reflect what will be even next week. There are debates which haven't taken place yet and those always influence polls. Your statement is just wrong.
 
Old 05-11-2016, 07:59 PM
 
569 posts, read 549,448 times
Reputation: 286
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gentoo View Post
Your reply has nothing to do with the post you quoted.
I was taking the quote as a reference of the brutal honesty from him.
 
Old 05-11-2016, 08:18 PM
 
Location: United Kingdom
969 posts, read 823,109 times
Reputation: 728
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gentoo View Post
These polls change and will not reflect what will be even next week. There are debates which haven't taken place yet and those always influence polls. Your statement is just wrong.
You've still not taken aboard what is meant by predictive value here.

The predictive value assigned to a poll, based on the time of year that it is undertaken, is based on retrospective analysis. This means that it factors in what would count as uncertainties from a purely anterospective perspective, such as an October Surprise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Yea, however that Quinnipac poll was a bit of an outlier and has a tendency to get a Republican lean and a demographic skew . It shouldn't be dismissed but focusing on it by itself is misleading.
Sure, we can broaden our data set. This Reuters poll seems to be the most congruous with it.


http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM6...60510/type/day

Last edited by CTDominion; 05-11-2016 at 08:49 PM.. Reason: Merge response
 
Old 05-11-2016, 08:27 PM
 
Location: Manchester NH
15,507 posts, read 6,400,865 times
Reputation: 4831
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gentoo View Post
Unfortunately, spring time polls don't elect the president in the fall. having said that, let me dissect this a bit:

The middle class was destroyed in the 80's with trickle-down economics, not in the 90's when NAFTA was created. The economy was stronger in the 90's then at any point in recent history and the middle class did well.

Ok, I agree that money should be spent at home first. But spend it on what? Sure we can do some highway repair provided they are interstates and US highways. Certainly, some of them need it trust me on that. But then what else? Education? That by and large is not up to the federal government as schools fall under state jurisdiction. This is why the state and condition of schools varies widely across the country. We Americans don't like the idea of helping other Americans, we consider this a free hand-out so it won't be spent there.

Cutting corporate tax rates won't stop them from leaving. They'll leave when the next demand they make isn't met. I do agree with penalizing them when they do leave however.

Agree.

Yeah we've tried that in California and it ain't workin' out too well LOL. High speed rail is one infrastructure project Asia and Europe have that Californians have been dead set against. With the exception of Texas, it would take several states to be on board with this in the rest of the country to make it happen and I don't see this taking place. Switch and change are two things Americans don't like to do.
good to see you agree so much. Hillary will work her hardest to go against all your counter-arguments so welcome to the Trump train. Also you didn't address my mention of the poll change after Trump crushes her in a debate.
 
Old 05-11-2016, 09:12 PM
 
Location: San Diego, California Republic
16,588 posts, read 27,325,602 times
Reputation: 9048
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winterfall8324 View Post
good to see you agree so much. Hillary will work her hardest to go against all your counter-arguments so welcome to the Trump train. Also you didn't address my mention of the poll change after Trump crushes her in a debate.
I agreed with a couple of your points because few people are all one side or another so don't get too excited.

I've already addressed the whole poll exaggeration.
 
Old 05-11-2016, 09:15 PM
 
Location: San Diego, California Republic
16,588 posts, read 27,325,602 times
Reputation: 9048
Quote:
Originally Posted by CTDominion View Post
You've still not taken aboard what is meant by predictive value here.

The predictive value assigned to a poll, based on the time of year that it is undertaken, is based on retrospective analysis. This means that it factors in what would count as uncertainties from a purely anterospective perspective, such as an October Surprise.



Sure, we can broaden our data set. This Reuters poll seems to be the most congruous with it.


Reuters Polling
I noticed you're in the UK. How many of our elections do you see in the detail we see here? You're still not taking into account that polls change, sometimes in a pronounced way after debates which again, haven't happened yet.
 
Old 05-11-2016, 09:41 PM
 
Location: Finland
24,144 posts, read 24,735,183 times
Reputation: 11103
I wish someone would come and make Finland great again too.
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