Which arctic port(s) will boom in the near future? (sale, buy)
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Consider: Canada's northern territories have scattered populations. Towns are small in Canada's north. The difference with Russia: For Canada, there has never been any forced repatriation of the indigenous people living there. Russia's got a different history altogether. One that has much more to do with politics than economics.
The large cities in the northern reaches of Russia's arctic are largely populated with people (that is: descendants of political prisoners) who were deported to those areas from outlying regions (ethnic minority enclaves) during the Soviet era, or even earlier during the "Russification" period of the last Russian imperial era. Hundreds of thousands of ethnic minorities were forced onto trains during the Stalin years, from as far away as Poland, Hungary, or Ukraine, to be sent into the gulag system or to fend for themselves in Siberia. People were literally left to starve, or freeze, or figure out how to survive in the Siberian wilderness--many survived only because of the kind altruism of indigenous people in those areas.
The Trans-Siberian Railway was built on prison labour. Novosibirsk, the third largest city in Russia, and the largest in Siberia, was built on prison labour. It's increasingly difficult for the smaller cities in the arctic Russian region to survive with the reduced state subsidies they receive in Russia's current economic situation. Russia's economy is shrinking by the day.
Canada's arctic lacks centralized populations in large cities of the scale of northern Russia. But it doesn't mean that a major port could not be built. Rather than forcing people to live in the region, it would be more natural for Canada to wait for the arctic routes to melt and allow summer shipping traffic. At that point, cooperation between Canada, the U.S., and other northern allies could allow for a useful, cutting-edge port to be constructed. People would not be forced to move there-- lucrative jobs would no doubt make the port a population magnet.
Consider: Canada's northern territories have scattered populations. Towns are small in Canada's north. The difference with Russia: For Canada, there has never been any forced repatriation of the indigenous people living there. Russia's got a different history altogether. One that has much more to do with politics than economics.
The large cities in the northern reaches of Russia's arctic are largely populated with people (that is: descendants of political prisoners) who were deported to those areas from outlying regions (ethnic minority enclaves) during the Soviet era, or even earlier during the "Russification" period of the last Russian imperial era. Hundreds of thousands of ethnic minorities were forced onto trains during the Stalin years, from as far away as Poland, Hungary, or Ukraine, to be sent into the gulag system or to fend for themselves in Siberia. People were literally left to starve, or freeze, or figure out how to survive in the Siberian wilderness--many survived only because of the kind altruism of indigenous people in those areas.
The Trans-Siberian Railway was built on prison labour. Novosibirsk, the third largest city in Russia, and the largest in Siberia, was built on prison labour. It's increasingly difficult for the smaller cities in the arctic Russian region to survive with the reduced state subsidies they receive in Russia's current economic situation. Russia's economy is shrinking by the day.
Canada's arctic lacks centralized populations in large cities of the scale of northern Russia. But it doesn't mean that a major port could not be built. Rather than forcing people to live in the region, it would be more natural for Canada to wait for the arctic routes to melt and allow summer shipping traffic. At that point, cooperation between Canada, the U.S., and other northern allies could allow for a useful, cutting-edge port to be constructed. People would not be forced to move there-- lucrative jobs would no doubt make the port a population magnet.
What are you talking about, Novosibirsk is no where near the arctic and it's climate isn't all that different from Canada's interior cities such as Edmonton (summers are hotter and longer though) and it was not forcefully populated, it's largest population influx came from at first refugees running away from the famines from Ukraine and south western Russia during the 30's and then again from WWII, Novosibirsk was in fact going to become the new capital if Moscow had fallen into German hands. Also all though Novosibirsk was founded in the late 1800's, the majority of Siberia cities were founded in the 1600's such as Irkutsk which was at one point called the Paris of Siberia. Anyways the minority people that you are referring to that were forcefully moved such as Crimean Tatars and Chechens were moved to central Asia, not Siberia, and certainly not the arctic. the majority ethnic group in Siberia to this day are ethnic Russians and Ukrainians, except for a few places where the local natives still out number or make up almost half the population such as the Sakha republic. Either way the population is free to move as they please and many arctic cities and towns have shrunken in size by a substantial amount, however those that have a large economy based on natural resource extraction such as oil are growing quite quickly especially those in northwestern Siberia. Such as Surgut which has grown by ~34,000 people in the past 5 years
340,845 (2015); 306,675 (2010) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surgut
according to this article Sabetta is going to boom. It's a port with an LNG plant soon to produce 17 million tons of liquified natural gas per year and a railroad will soon be constructed to it.
according to this Russian wiki page the population is also booming.
I would really like to see Canada develop Tuktoyaktuk as our main arctic port. They recently finished the extension to the Dempster highway there and being in the west, could be a quicker way to Asia than an eastern port like Churchill.
but if they want to get to Asia wouldn't it be much faster to just use Vancouver or Prince Rupert. I think that the Hudson bay is superior because https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churchill,_Manitoba has the fastest access to the inland provinces and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moosonee is the closest to the major populations centers of eastern Canada. shipping is much cheaper than trains, so for Tuktoyaktuk to become a major port they need to have a strong local economic driver for such an isolated spot, similar to how Sabetta is being developed because of the Yamal project, there is a lot of natural gas up there which is then being shipped out from the port.
but if they want to get to Asia wouldn't it be much faster to just use Vancouver or Prince Rupert. I think that the Hudson bay is superior because https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churchill,_Manitoba has the fastest access to the inland provinces and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moosonee is the closest to the major populations centers of eastern Canada. shipping is much cheaper than trains, so for Tuktoyaktuk to become a major port they need to have a strong local economic driver for such an isolated spot, similar to how Sabetta is being developed because of the Yamal project, there is a lot of natural gas up there which is then being shipped out from the port.
Tuk is actually slightly shorter distance to places like Tokyo than either Prince Rupert or Vancouver and so during the ice free season, it might make more sense to ship cargo from there instead of Prince Rupert or Vancouver. It is also quite close to ports like Tromso and Murmansk relatively speaking. The area around Tuk has a lot of oil and natural gas deposits but I think the government put a moratorium on extraction for now. Moosonee would be better than Churchill I agree for places like Toronto and Montreal and has a longer ice free season than Churchill. There is also a functional railway there which Churchill does not have at the moment but it will be fixed soon I think. I don't know why the government decided Churchill would be a better port than Moosonee. Maybe closer to the southern prairies which ship grain.
Tuk is actually slightly shorter distance to places like Tokyo than either Prince Rupert or Vancouver and so during the ice free season, it might make more sense to ship cargo from there instead of Prince Rupert or Vancouver. It is also quite close to ports like Tromso and Murmansk relatively speaking. The area around Tuk has a lot of oil and natural gas deposits but I think the government put a moratorium on extraction for now. Moosonee would be better than Churchill I agree for places like Toronto and Montreal and has a longer ice free season than Churchill. There is also a functional railway there which Churchill does not have at the moment but it will be fixed soon I think. I don't know why the government decided Churchill would be a better port than Moosonee. Maybe closer to the southern prairies which ship grain.
yep that is exactly the case, but now that you mention it, I've been toying around with google earth, and you are correct that Tuk is much closer than the pacific ports, Tuk is in a perfect location to facilitate trade between East/South Asia and the southern prairies, but Churchill is still useful for the middle east.
Also something I noticed is that the shortest route between India and Canada/US is to have goods transported by rail to Yamal peninsula / Sabetta and then shipped to Tuk. When India becomes developed I could see this route becoming quite busy and important.
But arctic ports are going to e a flash in the pan, when/if that ever happens. Because by the time it does, life on Earth will be quickly becoming unlivable. The arctic port phenom may last a generation, if that, but not much longer, IMO. Remember, the arctic, and this includes the coastal shelf of Siberia, and scientists there have documented and observed, will be belching methane chronically, which not only will throw global warming into high gear, it will make the environment around the ports unlivable, the air unbreathable, conditions unworkable, as methane is highly explosive.
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