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The report below is a summary of a gated WSJ piece.
Lots of commentators are saying that this time the protests in Iran are different. An attack on Saudi could quickly escalate and draw in Israel to take an opportunity.
Quote:
Tehran is reportedly preparing imminent attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia and northern Iraq that could put the US military at risk. Based on shared Saudi intelligence, the news has put the Pentagon on “high alert.” The US has 10 military bases and about 3,000 troops in Saudi Arabia and roughly 2,500 troops in Iraq. Riyadh says the plot is an attempt by the Islamic Republic to distract from the combustible situation at home, where nationwide protests – bordering on revolution – over the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini, 22, have consumed the country for more than six weeks. In recent weeks, Tehran has also bombarded Kurdish towns in northern Iraq that it blames for fomenting unrest in Iran (Amini was Kurdish). While many called for President Joe Biden to sever ties with Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman after Riyadh recently snubbed the US by cutting OPEC+’s daily oil production, this episode reveals that – for better or worse – Washington and Riyadh’s national security interests remain intertwined
^^^
It was the US experience with Ukraine prior to the invasion that prompted this thread.
US intelligence warned of invasion but were ignored.
I think a direct attack if it happens is a considerable step up from a proxy.*
Those "imminent attacks" will almost certainly come through proxies too, if they happen.
Russia and Ukraine happen to share a border hundreds of miles long. What's Iran gonna do, march through and maintain supply lines through Iraq and Kuwait?
Those "imminent attacks" will almost certainly come through proxies too, if they happen.
Russia and Ukraine happen to share a border hundreds of miles long. What's Iran gonna do, march through and maintain supply lines through Iraq and Kuwait?
Attack doesn't automatically mean invasion. During the eight year Iran-Iraq war although there was invasion they also lobbed a lot of missiles at each other, among other things.
If Iran does do it. I'd say the most likely first strike would be against Saudi oil tankers.
Directly? They'd have to be suicidal. Saudi Arabia doesn't have the greatest military, but their political alliances + wealth (not to mention religious significance) pretty much insulates them. If the US goes down, and they don't find another backer, totally different story
This would be a great time for the western powers to ask the Saudis nicely to pump more oil. When they agree then we park a big naval squadron in the Persian Gulf. Until they play nice with us again I say we let them sweat. The US is running out of diesel, half of Europe will freeze this winter. We need their help and it appears they need ours. A US/British fleet would go a long way to deter Iran. Saudi oil would go along way to help North America and Europe with our energy shortages while we are dealing with Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. Time for Saudi Arabia to get fully on board with the good guys.
This would be a great time for the western powers to ask the Saudis nicely to pump more oil. When they agree then we park a big naval squadron in the Persian Gulf. Until they play nice with us again I say we let them sweat. The US is running out of diesel, half of Europe will freeze this winter. We need their help and it appears they need ours. A US/British fleet would go a long way to deter Iran. Saudi oil would go along way to help North America and Europe with our energy shortages while we are dealing with Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. Time for Saudi Arabia to get fully on board with the good guys.
I would ask what Iran gains from attacking Saudi Arabia? I can't think of anything but absolute trouble. On the other hand, what would the U.S. gain from Iran attacking Saudi Arabia? The answer is the following
1) Convinces the Saudis to realign their interest with U.S. policy in a time when the Saudi government is making overtures to China and willfully shunning U.S. (pump more oil) request.
2) Allows the U.S. to take preemptive actions to target Iranian weapon making facilities, by saying Iran was going to attack the Saudis so we attacked first. Also allows them to help Ukraine by preventing Russia from obtaining Iranian weapons.
3) Continues region tension and making other Middle East nations fearful and therefore willing to give concessions to the U.S.
Look at the sources. They have no proof. Articles merely state "we have received credible proof." We have heard this line before (Iraq anyone). No one is falling for it. They really need to get a new playbook. The cold war tactics are stale. Same with the protest which are nothing more than Western based spy agencies covert attempts at destabilization.
I would ask what Iran gains from attacking Saudi Arabia? I can't think of anything but absolute trouble. On the other hand, what would the U.S. gain from Iran attacking Saudi Arabia? The answer is the following
1) Convinces the Saudis to realign their interest with U.S. policy in a time when the Saudi government is making overtures to China and willfully shunning U.S. (pump more oil) request.
2) Allows the U.S. to take preemptive actions to target Iranian weapon making facilities, by saying Iran was going to attack the Saudis so we attacked first. Also allows them to help Ukraine by preventing Russia from obtaining Iranian weapons.
3) Continues region tension and making other Middle East nations fearful and therefore willing to give concessions to the U.S.
Look at the sources. They have no proof. Articles merely state "we have received credible proof." We have heard this line before (Iraq anyone). No one is falling for it. They really need to get a new playbook. The cold war tactics are stale. Same with the protest which are nothing more than Western based spy agencies covert attempts at destabilization.
I am EXTREMELY suspicious of the whole "Iran is going to attack Saudi Arabia" line. Sounded like horse doodoo from the moment I read it. It has been interesting though to read all the US anti-Saudi sentiment now though in the states. Most people in the US seem to want Saudi Arabia to be attacked because they cut oil production.
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