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Status:
"“If a thing loves, it is infinite.”"
(set 11 hours ago)
Location: Great Britain
27,160 posts, read 13,444,010 times
Reputation: 19454
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hans63
Yes, of course. London is the capital of the British Empire, which, uh... never mind.
By the way, I read some article about finance executives moving from London to Frankfurt.
A number of academics and business leaders believe Brexit will actually be good for the UK and indeed London.
The problem the EU has with the UK, is it has a massive trade surplus, and as Professr Minford points out, if Britain takes down all barriers and we go for what is known as a hard brexit, then EU goods will be in direct competition with cheap goods and services from across the globe. This would hit many EU countries economies extremely hard, so a no deal situation is certainly not in the EU's own interest.
There are however a number of options, we could approach this as a so called hard brexit, or we could soften the negotiations and seek a Swiss or Norway, EFTA kind of approach. Britain was after all one of the founders of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) back in 1960, long before we joined what is now the EU in the 1970's.
Lets also be quite clear that things are far from rosy between East and Western Europe, the EU has even threatened to remove Polands voting rights in relation to judicial independence and it's right not to take migrants, and Poland is backed by Hungary and many East European EU members.
The UK's Balance of Trade with EU Countries - 2015.
A number of academics and business leaders believe Brexit will actually be good for the UK and indeed London.
The problem the EU has with the UK, is it has a massive trade surplus, and as Professr Minford points out, if Britain takes down all barriers and we go for what is known as a hard brexit, then EU goods will be in direct competition with cheap goods and services from across the globe. This would hit many EU countries economies extremely hard, so a no deal situation is certainly not in the EU's own interest.
There are however a number of options, we could approach this as a so called hard brexit, or we could soften the negotiations and seek a Swiss or Norway, EFTA kind of approach. Britain was after all one of the founders of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) back in 1960, long before we joined what is now the EU in the 1970's.
Lets also be quite clear that things are far from rosy between East and Western Europe, the EU has even threatened to remove Polands voting rights in relation to judicial independence and it's right not to take migrants, and Poland is backed by Hungary and many East European EU members.
The UK's Balance of Trade with EU Countries - 2015.
Brexit is very idealistic because it would mean UK has a significant position of force somewhere to negociate in the World outside of EU.
This is what Brexiters don't understand, negociating with EU is a game compare to China or India. If China can eat you entirely, they will. Even brother USA... "Business is business!". C. even tries to eat Germany.
IRL you face China/ future India (3Billion people together vs say 70M in 10 years, (43 times more) ) that will be in position of force to negociate whatever they want. Because UK is dust, peanuts, nada compare to the China of 2020/2025. Even USA start to be carefull with China, an economy 7 times bigger than UK.
Where is the levar for UK to negociate with the world in the future? Financial services? Lol
China is already agressive with EU/USA/Japan, UK alone? I don't want to see that.
For these articles,
If all tariffs fall, it's a sword in the foot of UK's industry, oh yea it ll bring imported purchase power at the price of a destruction of jobs, people will love to eat cheap beef from Brasil, not british farmers.
UK is trapped and doesn't know what to do and where to go, that's more or less how T.May feels.
"He argues that the UK could unilaterally - before a reciprocal deal is in place - eliminate trade barriers for both the EU and the rest of the world and reap trade gains worth £80bn a year.
The report foresees a further £40bn a year boost from deregulating the economy, as well as other benefits resulting from Brexit-related policies."
Poor British, like a tsunami, this would be the sea slowly leaving before the real hit. Let's open the country even more to globalization and competition impossible to face, what people fought with the vote.
I ll add that the sum of trade surplus is "impressive" with UK, yet it's not massive at all. And it will certainly not jump to 0B£ , that's again very very naive...So the power in the hands of UK, humhumhum...no.
Status:
"“If a thing loves, it is infinite.”"
(set 11 hours ago)
Location: Great Britain
27,160 posts, read 13,444,010 times
Reputation: 19454
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokitobounto
Brexit is very idealistic because it would mean UK has a significant position of force somewhere to negociate in the World outside of EU.
This is what Brexiters don't understand, negociating with EU is a game compare to China or India. If China can eat you entirely, they will. Even brother USA... "Business is business!". C. even tries to eat Germany.
IRL you face China/ future India (3Billion people together vs say 70M in 10 years, (43 times more) ) that will be in position of force to negociate whatever they want. Because UK is dust, peanuts, nada compare to the China of 2020/2025. Even USA start to be carefull with China, an economy 7 times bigger than UK.
Where is the levar for UK to negociate with the world in the future? Financial services? Lol
China is already agressive with EU/USA/Japan, UK alone? I don't want to see that.
For these articles,
If all tariffs fall, it's a sword in the foot of UK's industry, oh yea it ll bring imported purchase power at the price of a destruction of jobs, people will love to eat cheap beef from Brasil, not british farmers.
UK is trapped and doesn't know what to do and where to go, that's more or less how T.May feels.
"He argues that the UK could unilaterally - before a reciprocal deal is in place - eliminate trade barriers for both the EU and the rest of the world and reap trade gains worth £80bn a year.
The report foresees a further £40bn a year boost from deregulating the economy, as well as other benefits resulting from Brexit-related policies."
Poor British, like a tsunami, this would be the sea slowly leaving before the real hit. Let's open the country even more to globalization and competition impossible to face, what people fought with the vote.
I ll add that the sum of trade surplus is "impressive" with UK, yet it's not massive at all. And it will certainly not jump to 0B£ , that's again very very naive...So the power in the hands of UK, humhumhum...no.
It's a lot easier to do Trade deals outside the EU than as part of it, indeed Switzerland seems to do very well and to be able to make such Trade Deals. Furthermore if the UK wanted it could go back to being a member of the European Free Trade Area (EFTA), Britain was a founder member back in 1960 long before joining the EEC which is now the EU.
In terms of China and India, both countries have a large market for British Luxury goods, and we have a whole host of allies and commonwealth nations that we can make very good trade deals with.
The problem with the EU is that it has problems making Trade Deals, just look at the failed US Trade Deal or the fact that every nation has to sanction a trade deal, an d this can even include regions raising objections.
As for the people writing these reports they are well known Professors of Economics, such as Professor Minford who is very well versed in how trade works, as do the other Professors from highly respected universities and institutions as well as business and legal representatives.
Yes, of course. London is the capital of the British Empire, which, uh... never mind.
By the way, I read some article about finance executives moving from London to Frankfurt.
I am glad you mentioned Frankfurt.
Frankfurt is one of the great commercial centers in the world. But it is still not the capital of Germany. The capital of Germany is Berlin because it is the political capital of Germany because that is where the German government has its official seat.
The capital of Brazil is not Rio, its Brasilia.
The capital of Canada is not Toronto or Montreal, its Ottawa.
The capital of China is not Shanghai, its Beijing.
The capital of the USA is not New York, its Washington DC. New York may be one of the largest economic and cultural centers in the world, but it is still not the capital of the USA.
But New York is the home to the United Nations, which makes it the closest city we have to a World Capital. The other things people mentioned like art, culture, finance, economics, etc. are all important but they are not what makes a city a capital. And even if they were, New York matches or surpasses most international cities in those categories anyway.
It's a lot easier to do Trade deals outside the EU than as part of it, indeed Switzerland seems to do very well and to be able tro make suvch Trade Deals.
In terms of China and India, both countries have a large market for British Luxury goods, and we have a whole host of allies and commonwealth nations that we can make very good trade deals with.
The problem with the EU is that it has problems making Trade Deals, just look at the failed US Trade Deal or the fact that every nation has to sanction a trade deal.
As for the people writing these reports they are well known Professors of Economics, such as Professor Minford who is very well versed in how trade works, as do the other Professors from highly respected universities and institutions as well as business and legal representatives.
"British Luxury goods". You will have to convince 99.99% of british people that after Brexit, the economy will be stable and healthy thanks to these exports to China and India. Because it's a marginal part of the exports. Really, it's seriously marginal.
Nothing compare to Switzerland...which is a tiny country (8.5M ppl) that produce luxury goods, high technologies medical stuffs. You don't drive a country with 67 million people and the (financial) health [private + public debt] isn't the same at all. The margin of maneuver and inertia isn't the same at all too.
Besides british economy is quite finance-oriented which is not very good when you are alone. Singapore is the only exception, an exception thanks to an exceptionnal fiscality for traders and being near the most dynamic part of the world. UK cannot be a giant Singapore, it won't work...because it already doesnt. OEC - Switzerland (CHE) Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners OEC - United Kingdom (GBR) Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners
"we have a whole host of allies and commonwealth nations that we can make very good trade deals with"
Economy is the law of the jungle, there's not friends, nobody will save you from sinking if you do so, and companies will always try to take the space that appeared after you failed. Super friends will lend you money and be happy to help you with juicy interest rates. It's like that. India will not be sweet with you just because you are UK. Nor anyone. If they can press you like a lemon, they will do a fiesta to do it.
You won't make a commercial war with EU and save yourself with New Zealand and Australia. Turn back to your main importer (EU) would be... a suicidal move because it's around 45% of your exports. The german exports problem with UK seems suddenly quite small.
"The problem with the EU is that it has problems making Trade Deals, just look at the failed US Trade Deal or the fact that every nation has to sanction a trade deal." Went well with Canada, Japan as well as several other projects (specially Australia, Chile and New-Zealand). It's actually dynamic, not limited to the TTIP fail. For the EFTA, Norway doesn't want to lose its leadership and refuses UK lol.
For economists, they are always wrong, except when we agree with them... What about all the others that are well respected and ignored by Brexiters and constantly pressing the alarm button ?
Inflation continues to eat the purchasing power of households (wage growth rate lower than inflation rate), growth is now slow. Tant pis, selling R&Rs in Hong Kong will not help to finance trains and hospitals in the future.
As usual middle class will the variable of adjustment. It's the same everywhere in the world after all. But this time it's their fault.
Let's be honest, UK wanted to get rid of immigration that's all. British were happy with free circulation of people and free trade area within EU.
Back to London, I don't know by what miracle it could be capital of the World...World of finance yes, but the crown might fall sooner than expected. Before capital of the world it should be capital of the western world, but the core of West is NY.
Last edited by Pokitobounto; 08-22-2017 at 11:39 AM..
Status:
"“If a thing loves, it is infinite.”"
(set 11 hours ago)
Location: Great Britain
27,160 posts, read 13,444,010 times
Reputation: 19454
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokitobounto
"British Luxury goods". You will have to convince 99.99% of british people that after Brexit, the economy will be stable and healthy thanks to these exports to China and India. Because it's a marginal part of the exports. Really, it's seriously marginal.
Nothing compare to Switzerland...which is a tiny country (8.5M ppl) that produce luxury goods, high technologies medical stuffs. You don't drive a country with 67 million people and the (financial) health [private + public debt] isn't the same at all. The margin of maneuver and inertia isn't the same at all too.
Besides british economy is quite finance-oriented which is not very good when you are alone. Singapore is the only exception, an exception thanks to an exceptionnal fiscality for traders and being near the most dynamic part of the world. UK cannot be a giant Singapore, it won't work...because it already doesnt.
What do you think the Swiss economy is, it's also quite finance driven, furthermore like Switzerland the UK has a major Pharma, Bio-Tech and Chemicals Industry, we also produce numerous niche products from jet engines through to clothing and food and drink, and our luxury brands are world famous.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokitobounto
"we have a whole host of allies and commonwealth nations that we can make very good trade deals with"
Economy is the law of the jungle, there's not friends, nobody will save you from sinking if you do so, and companies will always try to take the space that appeared after you failed. Super friends will lend you money and be happy to help you with juicy interest rates. It's like that. India will not be sweet with you just because you are UK. Nor anyone. If they can press you like a lemon, they will do a fiesta to do it.
You won't make a commercial war with EU and save yourself with New Zealand and Australia. Turn back to your main importer (EU) would be... a suicidal move because it's around 45% of your exports. The german exports problem with UK seems suddenly quite small.
What are you going on about, we already have numerous trade deals in the offing, and already trade globally indeed the majority of our trade is already outside of the EU, something which we clearly want to expand. In terms of the EU we have a number of options and are currently in negotiations, so you are suggesting that we can't negotiate a trade deal or look at options such as EFTA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokitobounto
"The problem with the EU is that it has problems making Trade Deals, just look at the failed US Trade Deal or the fact that every nation has to sanction a trade deal." Went well with Canada, Japan as well as several other projects (specially Australia, Chile and New-Zealand). It's actually dynamic, not limited to the TTIP fail. For the EFTA, Norway doesn't want to lose its leadership and refuses UK lol.
For economists, they are always wrong, except when we agree with them... What about all the others that are well respected and ignored by Brexiters and constantly pressing the alarm button ?
Inflation continues to eat the purchasing power of households (wage growth rate lower than inflation rate), growth is now slow. Tant pis, selling R&Rs in Hong Kong will not help to finance trains and hospitals in the future.
As usual middle class will the variable of adjustment. It's the same everywhere in the world after all. But this time it's their fault.
Norway has never said anthing of the sort and we can still trade with the EU even if it comes down to WTO Rules, just as China and the US trade with the EU. Not being part of the EU doesn't mean you can't trade.
Let's be honest, UK wanted to get rid of immigration that's all. British were happy with free circulation of people and free trade area within EU.
Back to London, I don't know by what miracle it could be capital of the World...World of finance yes, but the crown might fall sooner than expected. Before capital of the world it should be capital of the western world, but the core of West is NY.
The UK was never willing to accept all the moves to union or all the requirements of the EU, we kept our difficult relationship going with a series of opt-outs from the currency, the borders, from full freedom of movement, from defence union and from parts of the foreign policy and criminal justice arrangements.
Our national soveriegnty was always the issue, so we have sensible left something that we were never fully going to intergrate with, and allowed the EU to get on with it's European Project without us holding them up.
We will continue to contribute in areas such as defence and security, and will seek to maintain as close a trading relationship as possible, whilst expanding our trade beyond Europe.
Houston, because that's where the petrochemical industry is, therefore the control of the raw material.
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