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Old 06-22-2017, 01:51 PM
 
Location: Cannes
2,452 posts, read 2,394,684 times
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So most sources says that by 2050 both China and India will surpass the US in terms of GDP. I can see that happening with China but India....Not so sure, yes India has and is experiencing a higher growth than China, but it is still way behind both China and the US.
So by 2050 nominal GDP would be as:
China
India
US
Indonesia
Brazil( only with a miracle as it is in deep trouble right now)

Source:
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/eco...d-in-2050.html
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Old 06-22-2017, 03:58 PM
 
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Both are extremely overhyped, all these measures are based on their current growth...you know if you throw a stone and measure its speed to be 10 km/hour, this doesn't mean the stone will be still moving at 10 km/hour after 50 years.
By 2050 Western powers will have less power than today, that's for sure but the key players won't be China and India.
The hype about China/India will end at some point in the 20s and by the 30s. 40s other coutries will be rising.

Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia and Israel will be far richer and more important together with some possible inclusion of some Eastern European countries as well as maybe Turkey.

There is even one guy who is known for his accurate political predictions who predicted that WW3 will start by 2050 from Turkey and Japan as coalition, obviously for such thing to be feasible they should be more powerful than what they are today. I won't be surprised about new "ottoman-like union, but led by Israel and not so much from Turkey.
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Old 06-22-2017, 06:20 PM
 
2,631 posts, read 2,061,026 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euro123 View Post
Both are extremely overhyped, all these measures are based on their current growth...you know if you throw a stone and measure its speed to be 10 km/hour, this doesn't mean the stone will be still moving at 10 km/hour after 50 years.
By 2050 Western powers will have less power than today, that's for sure but the key players won't be China and India.
The hype about China/India will end at some point in the 20s and by the 30s. 40s other coutries will be rising.

Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia and Israel will be far richer and more important together with some possible inclusion of some Eastern European countries as well as maybe Turkey.

There is even one guy who is known for his accurate political predictions who predicted that WW3 will start by 2050 from Turkey and Japan as coalition, obviously for such thing to be feasible they should be more powerful than what they are today. I won't be surprised about new "ottoman-like union, but led by Israel and not so much from Turkey.
There's nothing in this post that I agree with.

If you throw a stone at 10 km/hr it will continue moving at that rate of speed for infinity unless it is acted upon by another force.

China and India have the largest populations in the world. Barring famine, nukes or a deadly pandemic they are bound to have the largest GDPs in the world. China first and then India.

Japan's population is rotting on the vine. Sadly, a great culture is bleeding out. Korea will continue to grow, but will be limited by its size and limited natural resources. Saudi Arabia is an oil economy and not particularly well educated. Once the oil gravy train runs, they'll be something like a more extremist version of Jordan. Israel will continue to be the world's brain trust, joined at the hip to the US.

Japan and Turkey have no reason to form a coalition. Cockamamie conjecture.
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Old 06-23-2017, 03:45 AM
 
Location: Plague Island
779 posts, read 599,562 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euro123 View Post
Both are extremely overhyped, all these measures are based on their current growth...you know if you throw a stone and measure its speed to be 10 km/hour, this doesn't mean the stone will be still moving at 10 km/hour after 50 years.
By 2050 Western powers will have less power than today, that's for sure but the key players won't be China and India.
The hype about China/India will end at some point in the 20s and by the 30s. 40s other coutries will be rising.

Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia and Israel will be far richer and more important together with some possible inclusion of some Eastern European countries as well as maybe Turkey.

There is even one guy who is known for his accurate political predictions who predicted that WW3 will start by 2050 from Turkey and Japan as coalition, obviously for such thing to be feasible they should be more powerful than what they are today. I won't be surprised about new "ottoman-like union, but led by Israel and not so much from Turkey.
Well if that is the case then #MakeIstanbulCosntantinopleAgain.
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Old 06-23-2017, 05:40 AM
 
5,214 posts, read 4,050,481 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Return2FL View Post
...
All nations with low GDP will exhibit fast growth in the beginning.
China and India grow because the salaries are low and Western companies outsource there.

Also Japan can easily solve their problems (and is already starting to do so). By 2045 they plan massive tourism boost when they plan to build the world's tallest building as well as possibly "space elevator". Another way to solve their housing problem is with artificially built islands, which they're already building.

Their biggest issue is aging population and work force whih they can fix if they import more foreign workforce. Can Western nations try this "new idea" (import foreigners?) when they've been doing this for centuries...

Israel can survive without US help and studies show that the future generation of America (millenials) support Palestine (the "liberal view that illuminati jews steal land from innocent isis muslims"...).

Turkey currently rely too much on one person...Erdogan, of course the same argument can be made about Russia but I don't see a way for Russia to drop their over-reliance on oil economy even if more sane guy succeeds Putin.
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Old 06-23-2017, 12:07 PM
 
2,631 posts, read 2,061,026 times
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Japan will need a huge cultural shift if they are going to engage in large scale immigration. It's difficult to see that happen any time soon.

Yes, Israel can survive without the US but both sides benefit from the relationship. As such, it will continue. I hate to generalize because one size does not fit all, but the Millenials are an outlier group in regard to their politics. The generation behind them is more conservative and appalled by their "snowflakiness". Running around in vagina hats and demanding penis cakes from bakeries has really bad optics to those watching.

I still don't see where Turkey and Japan are any kind of a marriage.
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Old 06-23-2017, 12:09 PM
 
Location: Cannes
2,452 posts, read 2,394,684 times
Reputation: 1620
Quote:
Originally Posted by euro123 View Post
Both are extremely overhyped, all these measures are based on their current growth...you know if you throw a stone and measure its speed to be 10 km/hour, this doesn't mean the stone will be still moving at 10 km/hour after 50 years.
By 2050 Western powers will have less power than today, that's for sure but the key players won't be China and India.
The hype about China/India will end at some point in the 20s and by the 30s. 40s other coutries will be rising.

Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia and Israel will be far richer and more important together with some possible inclusion of some Eastern European countries as well as maybe Turkey.

There is even one guy who is known for his accurate political predictions who predicted that WW3 will start by 2050 from Turkey and Japan as coalition, obviously for such thing to be feasible they should be more powerful than what they are today. I won't be surprised about new "ottoman-like union, but led by Israel and not so much from Turkey.
I think Japan has reached such an incredible level of development that it just can't grow enough with the top 5 in the future. Korea, SA, and Israel they don't even come close to the big dogs
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Old 06-23-2017, 12:16 PM
 
412 posts, read 512,527 times
Reputation: 271
Quote:
Originally Posted by euro123 View Post
Both are extremely overhyped, all these measures are based on their current growth...you know if you throw a stone and measure its speed to be 10 km/hour, this doesn't mean the stone will be still moving at 10 km/hour after 50 years.
Ding ding ding! We have a poster with a brain here...
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Old 06-23-2017, 12:25 PM
 
5,214 posts, read 4,050,481 times
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Originally Posted by survivingearth View Post
I think Japan has reached such an incredible level of development that it just can't grow enough with the top 5 in the future. Korea, SA, and Israel they don't even come close to the big dogs
It depends in my opinion - Japan before WW2 had empire on mainland Asia and in the Rainassance Marco Polo I think described them as the most advanced coutry not only in Asia but also in the world. Today they're top 3 in Asia among China and Korea but certainly not top in the world, more like top 20 in terms of salaries, GDP, HDI.

SA have everything necessary to become world power: Vast land, populous, popular language, strong military, natural resources. What they need is diverse economy and forming union other than the Arab league to have control over UAE and Bahrain, Kuwait, with goal to be having single currency (similar to the euro in the EU, possibly just called "Dirham").
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Old 06-23-2017, 01:53 PM
 
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Quote:
SA have everything necessary to become world power: Vast land, populous, popular language, strong military, natural resources.
They have everything except brains and work ethic.
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