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Old 07-04-2020, 02:50 PM
 
1,117 posts, read 827,133 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by usuariodeldia View Post
We don’t know that yet, look at the numbers in Peru, Mexico, Chile. There are people dying from the virus and starving from the economic crisis, where would u rather be right now? In those countries or in. Thailand and Vietnam? These two countries could allow traveller's from countries that don’t have crazy numbers of cases.
If there’s never a vaccine, those countries will end up experiencing a wave sooner or later, unless they stay shut down forever
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Old 07-04-2020, 03:04 PM
 
1,184 posts, read 1,355,025 times
Reputation: 1698
Quote:
Originally Posted by usuariodeldia View Post
You need to update. Because the problem with covid is that there is no long term immunity. So countries that already f#cked up the first time will probably have second and more waves.
This is a strong statement. Where did you find that there is no long term immunity? Obviously no country has yet had most of its population infected, so even though many people are immune due to previous infection, most of them are not.


Anyway, you only need one case under the radar to spread out the virus to a free area.

The point is that unless the virus is eradicated -and this ship has already sailed a while ago-, the world will have to manage to develop a sustainable coexistence with it until there is either a vaccine or the famous herd immunity is completed, for which we might have to wait many years.

More or less strong lock-downs can be useful to contain severe outbreaks, to prepare the health care system, and adapt the lifestyle to the sustainable coexistence, but they can’t last forever, hence the challenge of finding the balance.

Indefinite isolation is not an option. There are/will be areas free from COVID-19, but it’s just matter of time until the virus gets there for the first, second, nth time.
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Old 07-04-2020, 03:09 PM
 
22,923 posts, read 15,370,240 times
Reputation: 16962
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mhc1985 View Post
This is a strong statement. Where did you find that there is no long term immunity? Obviously no country has yet had most of its population infected, so even though many people are immune due to previous infection, most of them are not.


Anyway, you only need one case under the radar to spread out the virus to a free area.

The point is that unless the virus is eradicated -and this ship has already sailed a while ago-, the world will have to manage to develop a sustainable coexistence with it until there is either a vaccine or the famous herd immunity is completed, for which we might have to wait many years.

More or less strong lock-downs can be useful to contain severe outbreaks, to prepare the health care system, and adapt the lifestyle to the sustainable coexistence, but they can’t last forever, hence the challenge of finding the balance.

Indefinite isolation is not an option. There are/will be areas free from COVID-19, but it’s just matter of time until the virus gets there for the first, second, nth time.
They are already reporting that people are catching this thing for the second time around, ergo; immunity is not lasting.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/coronav.../#53e4dee210c4

And:

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...tibodies-67650

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/asymp...d-19-1.5629172

https://www.forbes.com/sites/william.../#2161cda772e1

Pinning your hopes on "herd immunity" is perhaps not wise.
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Old 07-04-2020, 06:48 PM
 
Location: Sydney Australia
2,164 posts, read 1,423,732 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manolopo View Post
If there’s never a vaccine, those countries will end up experiencing a wave sooner or later, unless they stay shut down forever
You sound like you are trying to justify the American response!

Our government are working under the assumption that there well may be a vaccine or effective treatment developed in the next year.

Meanwhile, everywhere but in Melbourne life is nearly normal. There certainly are differences such as the need to get a Covid test when one has a cold, just in case. Restaurants are less crowded but many people prefer that anyway. I do not even own a mask.

If we get to 2021 and there is no vaccine in sight then they will need to work out procedures to deal with the lack of overseas travel.

That is not really a new issue here. Australia was in both WW1 and WW2 right from the beginning to the end. Recreational travel overseas did not happen for years on end. My own parents never visited Europe in their lives.

People who feel they really need to travel overseas may have to put up with quarantine on their return, which is what is happening now for people who can get exemptions to travel.

There is more to life than overseas travel. In our current isolation we are able to do most things we want.

I
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Old 07-04-2020, 11:03 PM
 
1,117 posts, read 827,133 times
Reputation: 312
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarisaAnna View Post
You sound like you are trying to justify the American response!

Our government are working under the assumption that there well may be a vaccine or effective treatment developed in the next year.

Meanwhile, everywhere but in Melbourne life is nearly normal. There certainly are differences such as the need to get a Covid test when one has a cold, just in case. Restaurants are less crowded but many people prefer that anyway. I do not even own a mask.

If we get to 2021 and there is no vaccine in sight then they will need to work out procedures to deal with the lack of overseas travel.

That is not really a new issue here. Australia was in both WW1 and WW2 right from the beginning to the end. Recreational travel overseas did not happen for years on end. My own parents never visited Europe in their lives.

People who feel they really need to travel overseas may have to put up with quarantine on their return, which is what is happening now for people who can get exemptions to travel.

There is more to life than overseas travel. In our current isolation we are able to do most things we want.

I

Well all of this is based on assumptions. Most people assume there will be a vaccine, but that's not guaranteed. We also assume that most people who get infected develop immunity- again not guaranteed. I'm just posing the question, which countries will be best/worst off if there's no vaccine but there is immunity. I mean, I could ask the question assuming that there's no vaccine and no immunity- but that's a world I don't want to imagine. That would be a disaster.



And what you said applies to Australia, and I think they'll survive with that kind of set up. I'm just worried about the countries that rely heavily on mass tourism and haven't had a large wave of Covid yet.

Last edited by manolopo; 07-04-2020 at 11:12 PM..
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Old 07-04-2020, 11:11 PM
 
1,117 posts, read 827,133 times
Reputation: 312
Quote:
Originally Posted by BruSan View Post
They are already reporting that people are catching this thing for the second time around, ergo; immunity is not lasting.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/coronav.../#53e4dee210c4

And:

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...tibodies-67650

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/asymp...d-19-1.5629172

https://www.forbes.com/sites/william.../#2161cda772e1

Pinning your hopes on "herd immunity" is perhaps not wise.
Herd immunity is not guaranteed, but neither is a vaccine. And the fastest a vaccine has ever been developed is 4 years. I'm just asking, assuming there is immunity but no vaccine, how would the world look? I mean, we can assume there's no vaccine and no immunity, but that would be a disaster I don't want to think about.


Some promising new news about immunity..



"Immunity to COVID-19 is probably higher than tests have shown"

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...her-shown.html
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