If there's never a vaccine, which countries will be worst off? (ski resort, luxury)

[manolopo]

A vaccine may never be developed, so which countries will be worst off when the world reopens?


-The countries that were the worst affected during the first wave: Italy, Spain, Brazil, U.S., India, etc.

-Or the countries that reacted quickly and had a low amount of Covid cases: Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, New Zealand, etc.

[Milky Way Resident]

That's hard to tell because things can always take a turn for the worse in any place.

[saibot]

I think the island countries will be the worst off, because they will remain afraid to let anyone on or off the island for fear of introducing new cases. They will want to stay isolated. Countries that haven't had the luxury of easily closing their borders will be more prepared to roll with the punches.

[manolopo]

Originally Posted by saibot

I think the island countries will be the worst off, because they will remain afraid to let anyone on or off the island for fear of introducing new cases. They will want to stay isolated. Countries that haven't had the luxury of easily closing their borders will be more prepared to roll with the punches.

Yeah and those countries rely most on tourism, so they cannot stayed closed for much longer. Thailand too, even though it's not really an island country. They've handled it very well so far, but I'm wondering if they'll end up worse off if there's no vaccine.

[manitopiaaa]

Smaller (by population) countries and those who rely on cross-border trade will be worst off. Tourism economies as well.

Countries like Brazil, China, Russia and the USA, ironically enough, will be better off since they have massive internal economies - so keeping closed borders doesn't cause as much economic stress. The long-term damage to the economy will be the real fear if a vaccine isn't developed.

[elnina]

Poor countries aka Third World.

[manolopo]

Originally Posted by elnina

Poor countries aka Third World.

What about poor countries that have already been ravaged by Covid? If there's immunity, they'll actually be better off than countries that weren't as affected by Covid. If a vaccine isn't developed, then all countries are bound to experience a wave of Covid sooner or later, so I think the countries that have already experienced it will be better off in the end.

[euro123]

The west, just look at the very last developments there...with the protests in America the cases increased from 30k to close to 50k, in western europe being even worse - consider the case of the migrant eating cats, they're getting closer to the Black Death, forget covid. Basically the whole thing is just reflection of politics: the virus started in europe since a small ski resort in Austria knew that group of tourists had it but nevertheless took zero measures when it wasn't a big thing...so for as long as the west likes $ from china it will get worse.

[MarisaAnna]

Originally Posted by manolopo

A vaccine may never be developed, so which countries will be worst off when the world reopens?


-The countries that were the worst affected during the first wave: Italy, Spain, Brazil, U.S., India, etc.

-Or the countries that reacted quickly and had a low amount of Covid cases: Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, New Zealand, etc.

Well they are already looking at developing travel bubbles between countries with things under control. A bubble between Australia and New Zealand will greatly help both countries. But the federal Australian govt will not open the international borders until the state borders are all open. That has been held up by the surge in cases in Melbourne.

I do not think that the world will “open up”, rather it will be a gradual process. Perhaps the worst affected will have a bubble too.

I would expect that even if there is no vaccine there will be improvements in testing. We are having lots of testing here as the cold virus is raging, being mid winter here. Fortunately the flu is way way down but I know several people who have had tests because of having a cold. It is very quick compared to three months ago and the results are coming back next morning.

But how do you measure worse off?

[manolopo]

Originally Posted by MarisaAnna

Well they are already looking at developing travel bubbles between countries with things under control. A bubble between Australia and New Zealand will greatly help both countries. But the federal Australian govt will not open the international borders until the state borders are all open. That has been held up by the surge in cases in Melbourne.

I do not think that the world will “open up”, rather it will be a gradual process. Perhaps the worst affected will have a bubble too.

I would expect that even if there is no vaccine there will be improvements in testing. We are having lots of testing here as the cold virus is raging, being mid winter here. Fortunately the flu is way way down but I know several people who have had tests because of having a cold. It is very quick compared to three months ago and the results are coming back next morning.

But how do you measure worse off?

Travel bubbles are great, but long-term, I don't think travel bubbles between just a few countries are sustainable. The world will go back to being entirely inter-connected. If there's no vaccine, all countries will experience a Covid outbreak sooner or later. I'm worried about the countries that have shielded themselves from the virus all this time. Since they haven't developed an immunity, Covid will likely affect them worse than countries that has already had extensive Covid outbreaks


But this is assuming 2 things:
That a vaccine is never developed
That most people develop immunity after surviving Covid