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Old 05-25-2021, 07:49 PM
 
Location: Yokohama, Japan
153 posts, read 112,606 times
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China is by far the most likely, we are already seeing the US military prepare for China in the coming decades, with them saying things like "complete victory is no longer a certainty" and stuff like this. Whether or not they will be able to dodge their incoming demographic crisis will decide if they can go to toe-to-toe with the Americans.

India has definite potential but they have far too many obstacles blocking them. Corruption, pollution, poverty, the wealth gap, desertification, religious tension, and many other issues are making it a lot harder for them to get to even regional power level. If they could magically fix all of these issues, then India could be a force to be reckoned with but I don't know if I have hope for this to happen in the near future. Even if they did become a superpower, they still have their rivals Pakistan nearby armed with a large army and nuclear weapons which will always be a huge issue for India, along with climate change messing up a lot of the seasonal river systems.
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Old 05-25-2021, 08:41 PM
 
10,513 posts, read 7,108,741 times
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Originally Posted by elnina View Post
NEXT potential superpower? No.
It will be most likely China.

China will be a failed state in about 10-15 years.
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Old 05-25-2021, 10:58 PM
 
Location: Yokohama, Japan
153 posts, read 112,606 times
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Originally Posted by MinivanDriver View Post
China will be a failed state in about 10-15 years.
What makes you say that? I have heard people say this for decades now.
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Old 05-25-2021, 11:58 PM
 
81 posts, read 94,275 times
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I'd rather eat tandoori, nasi/bami goreng or anything Indian than what they eat in China, however tasty. Too greasy and big on the MSG neurotoxin.
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Old 05-26-2021, 04:13 AM
 
1,002 posts, read 916,355 times
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Originally Posted by Yasmin35 View Post
Do you think India could become the next potential superpower.
No !!!
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Old 05-26-2021, 04:54 AM
 
10,513 posts, read 7,108,741 times
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Originally Posted by indigorunner View Post
What makes you say that? I have heard people say this for decades now.
Demographics that are terminal, stratospheric debt, malinvestment, and awful geography.
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Old 05-26-2021, 05:29 AM
 
1,830 posts, read 1,369,132 times
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Originally Posted by MinivanDriver View Post
Demographics that are terminal, stratospheric debt, malinvestment, and awful geography.
And corruption, corruption, corruption.

Yes, every nation of and by humans has degrees of corruption embedded in its society, but totalitarian government structures found in countries like China makes it harder to skim the scum that always arises to the top of any long-simmering society.

I’m surprised given the numbers of highly intelligent and productive elite Indians and those of Indian descent in the US and other countries that they don’t have a greater impact in shaping their native country, unless it’s so slow that it’s unnoticeable due to its massive size.
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Old 05-26-2021, 05:51 AM
 
10,513 posts, read 7,108,741 times
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Originally Posted by mingna View Post
And corruption, corruption, corruption.

Yes, every nation of and by humans has degrees of corruption embedded in its society, but totalitarian government structures found in countries like China makes it harder to skim the scum that always arises to the top of any long-simmering society.

I’m surprised given the numbers of highly intelligent and productive elite Indians and those of Indian descent in the US and other countries that they don’t have a greater impact in shaping their native country, unless it’s so slow that it’s unnoticeable due to its massive size.
One other factor for China? The fact that it's essentially a commodity economy where its commodity--labor--has become overpriced. Labor costs have risen by a factor of 11 over the past twenty years, suddenly making it cheaper to manufacture in Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and even the United States.

I think people are misinterpreting a lot of Xi's moves as those of strength. Instead, they are instances of weakness, anticipation of the country's coming convulsions. Cracking down on Hong Kong (Which, incidentally, is the conduit through which 75% of all foreign investment in China flows) is not exactly the smartest move if China were actually interested in economic vitality. Or basically putting the kibosh to Jack Ma. Or literally alienating every single trading partner over the past year.

To me, the greatest barometer of China's future is where Chinese are putting their money. Enormous capital flows overseas, first in the middle of the last decade and now in cryptocurrency, have been staunched by the Chinese government. Why? Because both were avenues to get money out of the country. If there was sufficient faith by Chinese in their country's future, they would be investing domestically. Instead, they'll put it into just about any asset class possible, no matter how low the return actually is.

As far as India is concerned, I have no idea.

Last edited by MinivanDriver; 05-26-2021 at 06:02 AM..
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Old 05-26-2021, 09:13 AM
 
75 posts, read 108,441 times
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I don't want to start a India vs China war I just want people to pay attention to east not just the west civilisation began in China India and the Middle East not is Europe or the United States so sometimes I wish for an Asian Union (AU) not just the (EU) European Union .
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Old 05-26-2021, 11:57 AM
 
185 posts, read 105,953 times
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You may never see China become a failed country I see too many ignorant Western men like you Live in your own world I'm a minority, I'm Tibetan and I'm Chinese too Because my ancestors have always lived in this ancient country There are 130 million ethnic minorities in China Even the Han people, in fact, their appearance and somatotype characteristics are very different I see too much fake news about China
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