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Old 02-07-2023, 03:30 AM
 
Location: SE UK
14,820 posts, read 12,037,971 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herenow1 View Post
Yet in the last 40 years there is been a huge rise in wealth in Asia. Plus within the next 10 yeas China economy will surpass the USA. India on the other hand is expected to overtake the UK in being the 4th largest economy in a few years.

Plus there is a massive rise in Middle Class in Asia. Between 2020 and 2030, the middle-class population in Asia Pacific is forecast to swell from 2.0bn to 3.5bn people https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/...bal%20growth1.
Well that's not saying much! India has a population / marketplace of 1.408 BILLION, the UK has, in comparison, a tiny population of 67 million! India has 21 times as many people living there! In theory it should have an economy 21 times bigger than the UK!
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Old 02-07-2023, 03:43 AM
 
Location: Phoenix
30,394 posts, read 19,191,759 times
Reputation: 26297
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daywalk View Post
DEPENDS if you use Nominal or PPP:

NOMINAL
ASIA: 41%
NORTH AMERICA: 28%
EUROPE: 23%
REST OF THE WORLD: 9%

PPP
ASIA: 48%
EUROPE: 21%
NORTH AMERICA: 20%
REST OF THE WORLD: 12%
Good point, I think they both have value for different reasons. PPP is a good measure of how one can live on a certain income level, but it doesn't help in defining who is able to buy goods priced on the global market.
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Old 02-07-2023, 05:06 AM
 
1,764 posts, read 1,028,472 times
Reputation: 1943
Quote:
Originally Posted by cachibatches View Post
China's economy will never surpass the US, and I would have thought everyone would have figured that out by now.

It was supposed to happen in 2008, but then the excuse the was the great recession. It was bumped up to 2016...then there was another excuse...can't remember it. Then 2020...didn't happen.

Now it is supposed to be 2035. There is a lot of time for excuses in there.

This is now being projected to happen 27 years...let me repeat...27 years after initially forecasted.

It isn't going to happen. Ever. Especially now that theier population is officially in decline, and we keep growing ours though immigration.

It is just plain foolish to believe this rubbish, now.
There are things with China now have certainly caught up with and even matched the USA and West. Especially with scientific research.

W
Quote:
ell today China has overtaken the US in world leader in both scientific research output and “high impact” studies, according to a report published by Japan’s science and technology ministry.

The report, which was published by Japan’s National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTP) on Tuesday, found that China now publishes the highest number of scientific research papers yearly, followed by the US and Germany.

The figures were based on yearly averages between 2018 and 2020, and drawn from data compiled by the analytics firm Clarivate.

The Japanese NISTP report also found that Chinese research comprised 27.2% of the world’s top 1% most frequently cited papers. The number of citations a research paper receives is a commonly used metric in academia. The more times a study is cited in subsequent papers by other researchers, the greater its “citation impact”.

The US accounted for 24.9% of the top 1% most highly cited research studies, while UK research was third at 5.5%
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...esearch-output

Quote:
Today, China is second only to the U.S. in how much it spends on science and technology. Chinese universities now produce the largest number of engineering Ph.D.s in the world, and the quality of Chinese universities has dramatically improved in recent years.
https://theconversation.com/china-no...ineering%20Ph.

Sure China will eventually over take the USA as the country with the largest economy, however even when it does it wont match the living standards of the USA, and it will take a long time yet to match it.
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Old 02-07-2023, 12:31 PM
 
Location: Katy,Texas
6,476 posts, read 4,080,626 times
Reputation: 4522
Quote:
Originally Posted by easthome View Post
Well that's not saying much! India has a population / marketplace of 1.408 BILLION, the UK has, in comparison, a tiny population of 67 million! India has 21 times as many people living there! In theory it should have an economy 21 times bigger than the UK!
Not really. If India had the same GDP per capita as the UK, even though it wouldn’t be the wealthiest country in the world by per capita, it would have the wealthiest people and would dominate. It would have 65 trillion dollars roughly, 40% of the worlds GDP although there is a good chance that if India was that rich, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tibet, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand’s GDP would probably at least double and most of Asia increase significantly from being in India’s orbit. Places like Nepal and Bhutan would probably have their GDP increase 10x from simple tourism. So it probably would be lower than 40% of the worlds GDP in reality.

But culturally we would watch Bollywood films like Hollywood, even moreso likely. Hindi would probably be as popular as English. Given the scenery in India some cities like Darjeeling and Namchi would be considered the most beautiful cities in the world, as Sikkim is already a relatively rich state it would be an Indian Norway but even nicer. Hell I wouldn’t be surprised in a world like that if Bangladesh, Tibet, Bhutan and Nepal were part of India. It would probably have enough money to build a gorgeous and efficient road next work through the Himalayas something that’s largely impossible today because the money simply doesn’t exist even though it’s feasible.

To feel wealthy rich people would wear Indian clothes etcetera.

Mumbai and New Delhi would be like 2 Tokyos/London’s or NYC’s in the same country. Both cities would have bigger economies too. Somehow Uttar Pradesh would still be relatively poor on the local scale. But people would have the mobility to leave and go to Indias rich cities and southern coast as well as pleasant mountain areas.

Basically what I’m trying to say is India having UK’s GDP per capita matters much more than vice versa. Numbers matter and overall GDP matters so it isn’t anything to snuff at when India eventually becomes the worlds 3rd or 2nd largest economy in the future.
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Old 02-07-2023, 04:59 PM
 
Location: Sydney Australia
2,308 posts, read 1,528,077 times
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We first visited China in 1988 and have returned several times, especially when my sister lived there. The changes are unbelievable, the growth in the standard of living and infrastructure. Same for Singapore, where we first stayed in 1977 and found it to be a fairly poor city state. Look at it now.

Of course Asia will keep on developing and at a faster rate than other regions.
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Old 02-07-2023, 05:35 PM
 
Location: In the heights
37,160 posts, read 39,451,107 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herenow1 View Post
Today, the Asian share of global GDP is over 45%, whereas Europe and North America combined now account for a bit less: about 44%. An extraordinary change in a remarkably short space of time. Clearly mostly a result of the furious growth seen in China and India over the period, but mirrored by rapid growth in many other Asian nations.

If GDP growth differentials between the continents continue at anything like the rate established between 2011 and 2021, Asian GDP is likely to account for over half of global GDP by 2030. https://www.worldeconomics.com/Thoug...-is-asian.aspx

No longer it is the Western world dominates the world's economy. Sure what will happen in Wall Street and London is very important, however as time goes on, the world economic activity will be more concentrated in Asia.
That GDP is very, very unevenly spread, and there's not much of a joint Asian identity or remotely unified alliance in terms of Asia as a continent.

I think it's probably more sensible to sort of split these as regions as, after all, Europe and Africa are all part of the same landmass. There's Central Asia, Western Asia, Southern Asia, Southeast Asia, and East Asia. Perhaps they should all get names? The Middle East is easy. Central Asia can be the Steppes? Or the Stans maybe? Or combine with Western Asia?

Southern Asia's tempting to call Greater India though that'd anger some people just as Indochina would probably not be too pleasing to many or the Sinosphere.
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Old 02-07-2023, 06:03 PM
 
2,230 posts, read 1,335,158 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarisaAnna View Post
We first visited China in 1988 and have returned several times, especially when my sister lived there. The changes are unbelievable, the growth in the standard of living and infrastructure. Same for Singapore, where we first stayed in 1977 and found it to be a fairly poor city state. Look at it now.

Of course Asia will keep on developing and at a faster rate than other regions.
They did the right thing - first class infrastructure, affordable housing for the first-time home buyers, and free public education for the first 10 years and beyond.
I find it a novel idea, that their police stations with the sign of "serving the people."
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Old 02-07-2023, 08:41 PM
 
4,660 posts, read 4,124,578 times
Reputation: 9012
Quote:
Originally Posted by herenow1 View Post
There are things with China now have certainly caught up with and even matched the USA and West. Especially with scientific research.

Whttps://www.theguardian.com/world/20...esearch-output

https://theconversation.com/china-no...ineering%20Ph.

Sure China will eventually over take the USA as the country with the largest economy, however even when it does it wont match the living standards of the USA, and it will take a long time yet to match it.
Your reply in no way addresses anything that I said.
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Old 02-08-2023, 04:13 AM
 
284 posts, read 331,463 times
Reputation: 208
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarisaAnna View Post
We first visited China in 1988 and have returned several times, especially when my sister lived there. The changes are unbelievable, the growth in the standard of living and infrastructure. Same for Singapore, where we first stayed in 1977 and found it to be a fairly poor city state. Look at it now.

Of course Asia will keep on developing and at a faster rate than other regions.
There's this youtube channel I watch once in a while with walks and drives around various places in China.



Yes there's still some way to go with air quality, but compared to even 10 years ago it's visibly improved. Watching the place transform from Maoist China to today, and continues to transform, has been remarkable.
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Old 02-08-2023, 05:19 AM
 
Location: SE UK
14,820 posts, read 12,037,971 times
Reputation: 9813
Quote:
Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare View Post
Not really. If India had the same GDP per capita as the UK, even though it wouldn’t be the wealthiest country in the world by per capita, it would have the wealthiest people and would dominate. It would have 65 trillion dollars roughly, 40% of the worlds GDP although there is a good chance that if India was that rich, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tibet, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand’s GDP would probably at least double and most of Asia increase significantly from being in India’s orbit. Places like Nepal and Bhutan would probably have their GDP increase 10x from simple tourism. So it probably would be lower than 40% of the worlds GDP in reality.

But culturally we would watch Bollywood films like Hollywood, even moreso likely. Hindi would probably be as popular as English. Given the scenery in India some cities like Darjeeling and Namchi would be considered the most beautiful cities in the world, as Sikkim is already a relatively rich state it would be an Indian Norway but even nicer. Hell I wouldn’t be surprised in a world like that if Bangladesh, Tibet, Bhutan and Nepal were part of India. It would probably have enough money to build a gorgeous and efficient road next work through the Himalayas something that’s largely impossible today because the money simply doesn’t exist even though it’s feasible.

To feel wealthy rich people would wear Indian clothes etcetera.

Mumbai and New Delhi would be like 2 Tokyos/London’s or NYC’s in the same country. Both cities would have bigger economies too. Somehow Uttar Pradesh would still be relatively poor on the local scale. But people would have the mobility to leave and go to Indias rich cities and southern coast as well as pleasant mountain areas.

Basically what I’m trying to say is India having UK’s GDP per capita matters much more than vice versa. Numbers matter and overall GDP matters so it isn’t anything to snuff at when India eventually becomes the worlds 3rd or 2nd largest economy in the future.
You seriously think everybody will start speaking Hindi, start watching Bollywood films, start wearing sari's and go to Namchi for there Summer holidays instead of Benidorm!?
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