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Old 01-03-2024, 04:42 AM
 
284 posts, read 331,384 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Wadd View Post
Edit: Ukraine, sad to say, has turned into a war of attrition. Ukraine does not have the manpower to sustain that for much longer, and Putin/Russia has plenty of manpower and no regard for casualties. Ukraine should negotiate terms while it still can do from a position of relative strength. Sadly, this means losing some land.
Surprised many did not see this coming. Attrition warfare and defence in depth is and has always been Soviet and Russian military doctrine. That's how they fought WW2 against the Nazis. It didn't help that Ukraine and the West boasted about a coming counteroffensive for 9 months before it began, and gave Russia 9 months to dig in. I was afraid it sounded too much like a Kursk 1943 2.0 in the making.

From mid 1943 onwards in WW2 everyone could see Germany would lose, but one motive for the Germans to keep fighting was that they wanted to fight on for a better position on the negotiating table, for when the talks had to start. I understand each war is different but it did not work well for the Germans. For the Ukraine war I think it would have been better if a deal could have been reached in Istanbul during March/April 2022.
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Old 01-11-2024, 08:39 PM
 
1,226 posts, read 501,182 times
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Old 01-12-2024, 08:39 AM
 
Location: San Diego CA
8,494 posts, read 6,900,248 times
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The joint US and UK strikes in Yemen as highlighted by the previous poster. As the situation escalates we may see further strikes into Iran. We see oil tanker activity reduced with ships diverting to longer transit routes for safety. Already crude oil prices are on the rise prompting the threat of higher gas prices. And here in California we’re already paying five dollars a gallon for regular.
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Old 01-12-2024, 09:49 PM
 
1,651 posts, read 869,355 times
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The recent events in the Red Sea can certainly spiral out of the control. The Houthis have been getting bombed for over a decade so nothing new to them. The question is what will be the response, and then what will be the response from the other side after that. These small in nature situations have the propensity to escalate out of control. In the grand scheme of things it appears the existing world order is being challenged. This was supposed to the U.S. century, but other players seem to have other plans in mind.
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Old 01-14-2024, 07:02 AM
 
711 posts, read 294,420 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_Major View Post
The recent events in the Red Sea can certainly spiral out of the control. The Houthis have been getting bombed for over a decade so nothing new to them. The question is what will be the response, and then what will be the response from the other side after that. These small in nature situations have the propensity to escalate out of control. In the grand scheme of things it appears the existing world order is being challenged. This was supposed to the U.S. century, but other players seem to have other plans in mind.
The Houthis don't take a sh*t without Iran telling them to. As with the theme of this thread, Iran is the driving force behind all this. In turn, China and Russia are giving their political support because it destabilizes the west.

Don't want to dive into too much into politics but as I also mentioned earlier the mistakes with these misplaced "olive brances", the Biden administration removed Houthis from the terrorist designation list in 2021. And here we are. It's a foreign policy mistake just as trying to ease tensions with Iran was. They aren't our friends, never will be. It causes more, not less conflict.

Many of these conflicts were actually not U.S. vs. Iran proxy wars, but Saudi Arabia vs. Iran, it's been going on for years as you hint at. Let Israel clean house in it's backyard, and hopefully it will turn into a S.A. vs. Iran/Shia vs. Sunni regional (not global) proxy war again.
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Old 01-19-2024, 10:46 AM
 
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Old 01-19-2024, 12:36 PM
 
1,651 posts, read 869,355 times
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Originally Posted by Luisito80 View Post
Take this with a grain of salt. Certain countries want continual support for Ukraine, so they have to beat up the "war is coming" card. As long as Russia and NATO field the capabilities to launch nuclear strikes and deadly conventional weapons strikes, their will be no direct war.
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Old 01-19-2024, 12:52 PM
 
1,651 posts, read 869,355 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Wadd View Post
The Houthis don't take a sh*t without Iran telling them to. As with the theme of this thread, Iran is the driving force behind all this. In turn, China and Russia are giving their political support because it destabilizes the west.

Don't want to dive into too much into politics but as I also mentioned earlier the mistakes with these misplaced "olive brances", the Biden administration removed Houthis from the terrorist designation list in 2021. And here we are. It's a foreign policy mistake just as trying to ease tensions with Iran was. They aren't our friends, never will be. It causes more, not less conflict.

Many of these conflicts were actually not U.S. vs. Iran proxy wars, but Saudi Arabia vs. Iran, it's been going on for years as you hint at. Let Israel clean house in it's backyard, and hopefully it will turn into a S.A. vs. Iran/Shia vs. Sunni regional (not global) proxy war again.
What's interesting about the Iran proxy situation, is they set up these networks (or at least greatly expanded them) while the U.S. was busy in Iraq. In many respects we did them a big favor by invading Iraq. Once again bad U.S. policy in the region causing more trouble then in solves. They really need to get some new blood in the CIA, State Department, and other foreign relations services. A course not you since, you seem to think of ME countries (at the least the ones not friendly to U.S. interest) as unworthy of approach. The world is changing but unfortunately our leaders seem to be stuck in a 90's mindset.
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Old 01-19-2024, 01:22 PM
 
3,215 posts, read 1,679,883 times
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I don't think there's more or less conflicts. It's all about having more reporting today than before. The US has conducted operations in Yemen for decades. Nothing new just recent turmoil caused more fighting to get reported.

Most people forgot the last Israel invasion into Gaza, same thing tanks rolled in and innocents getting killed but nobody here cared. It wasn't newsworthy.

Today all sorts of social media and news coverage. Most people don't study history.

There's no more or less conflicts, it's the same. Ukraine and Russia had fighting in 2014 but Obama was smart enough to not interfere than waste resources and human lives.
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Old 01-20-2024, 08:06 AM
 
711 posts, read 294,420 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MKTwet View Post
I don't think there's more or less conflicts. It's all about having more reporting today than before. The US has conducted operations in Yemen for decades. Nothing new just recent turmoil caused more fighting to get reported.

Most people forgot the last Israel invasion into Gaza, same thing tanks rolled in and innocents getting killed but nobody here cared. It wasn't newsworthy.

Today all sorts of social media and news coverage. Most people don't study history.

There's no more or less conflicts, it's the same. Ukraine and Russia had fighting in 2014 but Obama was smart enough to not interfere than waste resources and human lives.
We all agree I think, no more or less conflicts.

I see the Israeli current action in Gaza more like what occurred in 2006 when Israel went into Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah (after various attacks and incursions against Israel). The difference being that Israel gave into international calls for a cease fire and pulled it's troops out before it could finish the job, UN peacekeeping forces moved in, an international arms embargo was promised. The results was that Hezbollah rearmed and violated the terms of the truce again and again, rockets and mortars continued firing into Israel, UN troops were more than useless with Hezbollah actually using there bases for staging areas. Today Hezbollah is ten times stronger than what it was and armed to the teeth.

Israel learned it's lesson regarding international calls for a cease-fire. Never again.
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