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Old 12-11-2023, 09:27 PM
 
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I've generally been "that guy" in geopolitics who tends to correct my friends about the state of the world. Before 2020, there were fewer conflicts in the world and, as a result, fewer people dying from conflicts.

They would often watch the news and read internet site, full of their doom and gloom and hyperbolic headlines, and declare that the world was heading towards a disaster, even though every measurable stat said the opposite.

Since 2021 or so, we've seen an increase in the number of wars happening in the world, and their resulting (high) death tolls.

https://sundayguardianlive.com/inves...ce%20in%202022.

Israel and Palestine have always had their problems, but this time it's more serious.

Central Africa has also had its problems, but they've had several coups in a short time. Not to mention civil war in Sudan and ongoing conflicts in Ethiopia and Somalia.

Of course, the conflicts in Syria and Yemen continue, and Myanmar is seeing an increase in violence.

And now we're learning that Venezuela is looking to invade its neighbor.

etc etc etc.

With increasing wars and death count, should we start to be more concerned about the state of the world, or do you think this will pass and that we'll go back to the numbers we saw prior to covid?
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Old 12-12-2023, 08:22 AM
 
Location: Springfield, Ohio
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I feel like it has always been this way, we’re just becoming more aware of the smaller regional conflicts thanks to the internet and social media.Russia invading Ukraine and fighting a ground war the way they have is a throwback since most operations have been through drones and aircraft (like the US and its drones targeting terrorist figures).
What we have seen in the past 5-10 years is an increase in authoritarianism in democratic countries, which can lead to erosion of freedoms taken for granted, depending on the reach of the person in power. That concerns me more then regional conflicts which are pretty much always a given in certain parts of the world.
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Old 12-12-2023, 08:52 AM
 
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I've been around since WWII and it's always been like this. It'll never change.
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Old 12-12-2023, 09:33 AM
 
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You hit it on the head when you said "watch the news and read internet site, full of their doom and gloom and hyperbolic headlines...", and the article you quoted reinforces that by only comparing data for a limited number of years. Since 2021? That's just not enough data to prove any particular trend. That's a perfect example of the media misusing data for sensationalism.

Actually when you compare the trend after WWII the curve is downwards in terms of conflict deaths, with some spikes for the late 60s, early 80s, and today. The good news is conflicts between states have almost virtually ceased to exits (Ukraine/Russia the exception), most of the wars you see now are civil/interstate type conflicts. Likewise, most of the conflicts for the last 20 or 30 years reside in Africa with it's never-ending cycle of civil wars, revolts, coups, tribal warfare, etc. You don't even hear about them much.

Here is a good link, they also get data from UCDP:
https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace

Note the summary statement: "The absolute number of war deaths has been declining since 1946. "

Last edited by Johnny Wadd; 12-12-2023 at 09:42 AM..
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Old 12-14-2023, 11:34 AM
 
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I'm concerned about the increased rate of proxy conflicts. Such conflicts were the norm during the Cold War years, but after the fall of the Soviet Union, they appeared to die down with the U.S. going unchallenged with its actions in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Bosnian War, etc. The Syrian conflict, Yemen civil war, and current war in the Ukraine is showing that the U.S. will face challenges going forward. Other powers whether major or minor aren't going to sit on the sideline anymore.
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Old 12-15-2023, 05:46 AM
 
Location: Somewhere on the Moon.
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If the world has been the calmness since moden human civilizations exist, a simple nodge up will seem like a lot when in reality it isn't. I wouldn't worry about the current state of the world.
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Old 12-15-2023, 07:53 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_Major View Post
I'm concerned about the increased rate of proxy conflicts. Such conflicts were the norm during the Cold War years, but after the fall of the Soviet Union, they appeared to die down with the U.S. going unchallenged with its actions in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Bosnian War, etc. The Syrian conflict, Yemen civil war, and current war in the Ukraine is showing that the U.S. will face challenges going forward. Other powers whether major or minor aren't going to sit on the sideline anymore.
The big difference being is that the US is now the proxy sponsor instead of being hands on as was the case in Iraq, Afghanistan, and to a smaller degree in Bosnia. The other proxy sponsor side being Iran. We can blame recent political forces for visualizing that the US can ever find common ground with them.

But I see the opposite trend as it seems, although it's better than having our own "boots on the ground" with US casualties, US voters are getting more squeamish about using taxpayer funds to fund these proxy wars, and also realize that these olive branch offerings to these aggressor nations do not work.
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Old 12-15-2023, 06:18 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Wadd View Post
The big difference being is that the US is now the proxy sponsor instead of being hands on as was the case in Iraq, Afghanistan, and to a smaller degree in Bosnia. The other proxy sponsor side being Iran. We can blame recent political forces for visualizing that the US can ever find common ground with them.

But I see the opposite trend as it seems, although it's better than having our own "boots on the ground" with US casualties, US voters are getting more squeamish about using taxpayer funds to fund these proxy wars, and also realize that these olive branch offerings to these aggressor nations do not work.
Things need to be contextualised. Supporting Ukraine in its fight against a dictatorship trying to take it over is absolutely the right thing to do. Ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea is another important imperative. Making it clear to Venezuela that it needs to stay away from Guyana is also vital.

The US can also put pressure on Israel behind the scenes to get it to mitigate the level of damage it’s inflicting on Gaza, while still being willing to provide support where necessary.
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Old 12-15-2023, 07:09 PM
 
1,651 posts, read 869,929 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Wadd View Post
The big difference being is that the US is now the proxy sponsor instead of being hands on as was the case in Iraq, Afghanistan, and to a smaller degree in Bosnia. The other proxy sponsor side being Iran. We can blame recent political forces for visualizing that the US can ever find common ground with them.

But I see the opposite trend as it seems, although it's better than having our own "boots on the ground" with US casualties, US voters are getting more squeamish about using taxpayer funds to fund these proxy wars, and also realize that these olive branch offerings to these aggressor nations do not work.
True the U.S. public is more squeamish about using tax dollars; however, it's not translating into pulling funding. The Pentagon's budget continues to increase and they seem to always find ways to fund wars. What olive branch offerings have we given to the aggressor? Unless I missed something our response to real or perceived acts of aggression is to pump weapons into their enemies hand, and create or encourage destabilization efforts.
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Old 12-15-2023, 07:36 PM
 
711 posts, read 295,457 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_Major View Post
True the U.S. public is more squeamish about using tax dollars; however, it's not translating into pulling funding. The Pentagon's budget continues to increase and they seem to always find ways to fund wars. What olive branch offerings have we given to the aggressor? Unless I missed something our response to real or perceived acts of aggression is to pump weapons into their enemies hand, and create or encourage destabilization efforts.
The "olive branch" I was referring to was the release of money to Iran, the reaching out to Russia to "reboot" the relationship about a decade ago, the aid to Gaza, things like that... It's all contradictory and counterproductive when we find ourselves in a proxy war soon after, and in my opinion simply encourage future wars as it doesn't punish aggressor entities before actual shooting starts.

Pentagon budget is not a problem if the result is advancing weapons to use as a deterrent to war. If it's to buy $2,000 hammers, than yes it's a problem.
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