Wyoming 2018 Governor Race (Cheyenne, Laramie, Sheridan: bill, best, money)

[TNT25]

Today’s mail had the final “dark money” flyer of the campaign. Another Mark “GreenPeace” Gordon past donation highlight again. I think these groups have mostly wasted a lot of money, particularly in light of a 6 person primary. The latest UW polling numbers have Gordon inching up towards the 25-26% range, which is the likely outcome. They should probably save their money for the future, when there’s perhaps only 3-4 primary goers. At least in that scenario it would likely have a larger impact. With the diluted primary we have now, the power of moderate and independent voters goes up exponentially, rendering a “dark money” campaign largely moot. Or maybe I’ll be proven wrong tomorrow!! But I doubt it.

[WyoNewk]

Yeah, I kinda hate it when there are so many vying to get on the ticket. I think that's how Trump made it through the Republican primary 2 years ago. He had some enthusiastic backers, but the majority were for other mainstream candidates, none of whom were able to break out and get more primary votes than Trump. I know some of you were probably for Trump from the beginning, but I had to pinch my nose to vote for him. Still would -- vote for him and pinch my nose while doing it.

I hope tomorrow's primary gives us a good Republican for the gubernatorial race. We've had lots of Democratic governors over the years, but I can't recall exactly why. Ed Hershler, the last time he ran, announced just before the election that he wanted to give homeowners an exemption on their property taxes. That was enough to get a few more votes than John Ostlund, his Republican opponent. I was a newspaper editor at the time, and when I saw that (homeowner's exemption proposal) come over the wire, I knew it would likely propel him past Ostlund, someone from Gillette who I knew well and thought would make a great governor. Not that Hershler was bad. In fact, none of our Democratic governors have been that bad.

Whatever, tomorrow's the big day, so vote early and vote often!

[TNT25]

FYI, apparently mass robo-calls have gone out all day today targeting both Hageman and Gordon, labeling them “Never-Trumpers.” Supposedly this is being organized by the Friess campaign...

[Wyoprairie]

Finally the day arrives, thank goodness. Yeah, the last couple of days have been particularly weird. Wish I had been out of state, but instead fielding poll calls and robo-calls like the one TNT mentioned. Yeah, "Friends of Coal" would have a reason to attack Harriet Hageman? "Sensible Solutions" is going after both Mark Gordon and Harriet. So it would seem like these have to be Uncle Foster operatives.

Listened to radio a bit driving to Douglas yesterday. Dave Dodson running ads now on the theme of don't worry about party, you know, vote for the person. I think the coded message is "hey, you are switching to Rep in order to alter the Governor's race, so give me hand with the Senator race as well since you are already there anyway" I still think it would be fabulous if so many D voters are gonna switch over to R that Rex Wilde (whose entire campaign spending is 830 bucks of his own dough) edged out Mary Throne. In November, would still be the same result, but I bet she would be very unhappy. I would prefer to discover that the switch strategy didn't actually find enough takers to be the determination.

I don't remember previously such a last minute, throw out there everything you can type of finish. We are getting more national attention because of Foster-I had never heard of him before, but around the country, he has a higher profile than the rest-who are probably unknown outside the region. I did see a system called "ranked voting" or "instant runoff" being promoted for these crowded primaries....don't know exactly how it works or whether it would thwart the (ever more out-in-the-open) manipulations being deployed.

Update-Wyo Mining Assoc out with a release warning everyone that this "Friends of Coal" is a shady operative from outta state.

[Crazy4Chickens]

I voted early this morning. First time voting in this wonderful state. It's nice voting in a state where my vote can actually mean something. Now I'll just wait and see what happens.

[3rdIQ]

ELECTION UPDATE

AP is reporting that the Wyoming Secretary of State's Office reports that 32,147 ballots were cast in advance of Tuesday's statewide primary election, and mentioned that 90% of the absentee ballots went out were returned.

Trump tweets late endorsement for Foster.

[Wyoprairie]

Originally Posted by 3rdIQ

ELECTION UPDATE

AP is reporting that the Wyoming Secretary of State's Office reports that 32,147 ballots were cast in advance of Tuesday's statewide primary election, and mentioned that 90% of the absentee ballots went out were returned.

Trump tweets late endorsement for Foster.

Stats time ha ha....weather has me fooling around today. So I wonder-of the 10 percent that didn't come back-did they vote today or just blow it off, or both, I suppose?

To sorta look at what impact the absentee's might have, I looked at the SofS website for 2010 and 2014 results: In 2014 primary, 97884 Republicans voted and 17791 Democrats voted for a total of 115,675.

In 2010 primary (which has been compared to this year due to number of candidates), 105780 Republicans voted and 22851 Democrats voted for a total of 128,631.

So I guess those 32,147 ballots already cast could be 25 to 28 % of the total (if it is D's and R's combined)depending on which prior year we most resemble this year. If it is R's only or predominantly R's (since there is more action in the R primary) then those early ballots could theoretically be 30 to 33 % of total ballots cast. I would assume turnout strong this year.

[3rdIQ]

I would think the 32,147 count was for all ballots.

Over the noon hour I got 4 robo calls, all advertising Foster.

[Wyoprairie]

Polls closed...and they're off at last. Here's some predicts, be interested in seeing yours.

Gordon: wins Johnson, Albany, Carbon, Teton by a good margin. Probably wins Laramie in a close one. Also wins Crook, Fremont, Hot Springs, Washakie, Park, Sweetwater, Sheridan, Sublette. Union vote not that big a deal in Wyo but Gordon snags it. Simpson endorsement could be trouble some places in Wyo, but goes over big in Park. Friess is from Teton, but not their style. Dahlin is from Sheridan, but Gordon still edges him out. Gordon, Hageman, Galeotos all live in Cheyenne-so Laramie County will split, but Gordon by a nose. Makes it hard to see how Gordon doesn't take the whole thing.

Friess: I can't figure out where his support is-all over the state? Can't see any real stronghold, but I'm thinking he wins in Lincoln and Uintah, with Bighorn a possible third. Platte and Goshen are sort of the Bible belt of Wyo, but they are also ground zero for Hageman and will go that way. He might be the one I haven't read at all. How big Trump endorsement?

Hageman: the Hageman wall will go up along I-25. She wins Platte, Goshen, Converse, Niobrara, Weston. I think she has good prospects in Campbell and Natrona, so what the heck, I'm tossing them in too.

Which leaves zero counties for Galeotos, Haynes, and Dahlin. Yeah, Galeotos will do good in Laramie and should do better than Gordon in Natrona, but I don't see any counties won.

(I think Barrasso gets a scare from Dodson but prevails, and can anybody even name who is running against Liz? Mary Throne easily wins Democrat nomination)

[TNT25]

Half of Campbell County precincts in. Really close:

-Hageman, 31%
-Friess, 28%
-Gordon, 26%