High Rise Future Directions
Posted 12-28-2009 at 01:40 PM by olecapt
I have been asked about where the high rises are going in the future and specifically about where the City Center entries may end up.
Here us a chart we have used before updated to late December.
[IMG]http://www.donohueteam.com/Realtor/Hi%20Rise/Graphic1.jpg[/IMG]
[I]Disclaimer. Note this charts has gotten caught up in some MLS changes. Basically some of these developments have been moved to the new vertical building class. This has resulted in the splitting of some development entries between the old condo class and the new vertical. In general the price numbers are fine...but some of the volume numbers may be off a few percent. The analysis requred to fully reconcile the chart is more than I am willing to do...so understand that it is only roughly accurate on volume. [/I]
[B]Messages[/B]
Some things are now selling reasonably well. MGM Signature at around $290, Panorama at $220 and the lofts and the various mid rise condos at about $100 to $120 psf.
Note that both the MGM Signature and Panorama show a wide range of pricing plus or minus around $100. This is likely due to such things as height, strip views and balconies.
Nothing much sells above $400 psf.
[B]Sales of the High Rise[/B]
The following chart shows the sale of the new vertical category. We have as well highlighted the sale of the MGM Signature, Panorama and the downtown lofts.
[IMG]http://www.donohueteam.com/Realtor/Hi%20Rise/High%20Rise%20Sales%201227091.gif[/IMG]
[I]Disclaimer. Again note that this chart is effected by the recent changes in the MLS. In general the first half of the year numbers are understated. The price lines however are pretty good. [/I]
[B]Messages[/B]
There is clearly some stability in the sales of all three listed properties.
In general most of the properties are still high priced. There appears very little if any market above $400 psf. We would expect that most properties will come to that level in time.
Note that the condo thing is probably ending. It appears that Cosmo and Fontainebleau will go straight hotel. So it may well turn out that these properties do well long term. They may how ever drop a lot more before they head up.
[B]Implications for City Center Properties[/B]
Perhaps Mandarin Oriental can get a high premium. Very hard to see however how that will be much above $500 to $600 psf. So they are likely priced high by a factor approaching two.
While VDara and Veer may manage a slight premium it would seem unlikely the either will average above $400 psf.
And note that all the City Center Properties are likely to drop sharply once MGM marketing is out of the act.
Are they a good buy ten years down the road? Maybe. But they will be a lot better buy as they change hands initially in the resale market.
Here us a chart we have used before updated to late December.
[IMG]http://www.donohueteam.com/Realtor/Hi%20Rise/Graphic1.jpg[/IMG]
[I]Disclaimer. Note this charts has gotten caught up in some MLS changes. Basically some of these developments have been moved to the new vertical building class. This has resulted in the splitting of some development entries between the old condo class and the new vertical. In general the price numbers are fine...but some of the volume numbers may be off a few percent. The analysis requred to fully reconcile the chart is more than I am willing to do...so understand that it is only roughly accurate on volume. [/I]
[B]Messages[/B]
Some things are now selling reasonably well. MGM Signature at around $290, Panorama at $220 and the lofts and the various mid rise condos at about $100 to $120 psf.
Note that both the MGM Signature and Panorama show a wide range of pricing plus or minus around $100. This is likely due to such things as height, strip views and balconies.
Nothing much sells above $400 psf.
[B]Sales of the High Rise[/B]
The following chart shows the sale of the new vertical category. We have as well highlighted the sale of the MGM Signature, Panorama and the downtown lofts.
[IMG]http://www.donohueteam.com/Realtor/Hi%20Rise/High%20Rise%20Sales%201227091.gif[/IMG]
[I]Disclaimer. Again note that this chart is effected by the recent changes in the MLS. In general the first half of the year numbers are understated. The price lines however are pretty good. [/I]
[B]Messages[/B]
There is clearly some stability in the sales of all three listed properties.
In general most of the properties are still high priced. There appears very little if any market above $400 psf. We would expect that most properties will come to that level in time.
Note that the condo thing is probably ending. It appears that Cosmo and Fontainebleau will go straight hotel. So it may well turn out that these properties do well long term. They may how ever drop a lot more before they head up.
[B]Implications for City Center Properties[/B]
Perhaps Mandarin Oriental can get a high premium. Very hard to see however how that will be much above $500 to $600 psf. So they are likely priced high by a factor approaching two.
While VDara and Veer may manage a slight premium it would seem unlikely the either will average above $400 psf.
And note that all the City Center Properties are likely to drop sharply once MGM marketing is out of the act.
Are they a good buy ten years down the road? Maybe. But they will be a lot better buy as they change hands initially in the resale market.
Total Comments 1
Comments
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Do you have an update on these statistics or could you point me somewhere that does?Posted 07-14-2010 at 12:34 PM by geetee
