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The question,
Are polls accurate in measuring fair sample of all voters?
Most if not all polls use land line phones to conduct the poll. This eliminates many if not all of a major group of voters.
McCain's voters tend to be older less mobile groups of people. They are more likely to have land line phones.
Obama's supporters are more likely to be younger, many have only mobile phones, never even having land line.
The percentage of people who do not land line phones.
25% ages 18 to 29, no landline.
12.4% ages 30 to 44, no landline.
6.1% ages 45 to 64, no landline.
1.9% ages over 65, no landline.
15.8% of all homes, no landline.
22.4% of poor, no land line
Haha well to make a poll the most fair you'd have to weight the pollsters against every. single. demographic.
18-25 = 0.25
white = 0.8
30k-50k = 0.3
the list goes on and on
That's why polls are rough approximations, especially with such a small gap like there is now, unless you basically conduct a census, and then only if it's the day before the election.
Haha well to make a poll the most fair you'd have to weight the pollsters against every. single. demographic.
18-25 = 0.25
white = 0.8
30k-50k = 0.3
the list goes on and on
What do your numbers represent?
While your point is well taken, there is over 15% of total population without land lines. You can make certain assumptions as in perfect as they are, it's what we have!
The land line users do seem to heavily weighted to the older groups, more likely McCain.
While younger tend to be mobile, more likely Obama.
While your point is well taken, there is over 15% of total population without land lines. You can make certain assumptions as in perfect as they are, it's what we have!
The land line users do seem to heavily weighted to the older groups, more likely McCain.
While younger tend to be mobile, more likely Obama.
Yeah OK I should've explained more.
The decimals were me guessing the voter turnout.
Like 25% of voters in the last election were people ages 18-25
80% were white
30% were in the 30k-50k income bracket.
So to make your poll accurate you'd have to categorize each person according to a big list of criteria in order to weight them according to the overall likelihood of them voting, according to demographics from the previous election.
The question,
Are polls accurate in measuring fair sample of all voters?
Most if not all polls use land line phones to conduct the poll. This eliminates many if not all of a major group of voters.
McCain's voters tend to be older less mobile groups of people. They are more likely to have land line phones.
Obama's supporters are more likely to be younger, many have only mobile phones, never even having land line.
The percentage of people who do not land line phones.
25% ages 18 to 29, no landline.
12.4% ages 30 to 44, no landline.
6.1% ages 45 to 64, no landline.
1.9% ages over 65, no landline.
15.8% of all homes, no landline.
22.4% of poor, no land line
This is just anecdotal of course, but everyone in my group of friends is an Obama supporter, and none have land lines. Another thing to keep in mind (anecdotal as well) is that I've found that more mobile people who have seen more in life and may have ventured outside their small towns tend to support Obama more and most of these people do not have land lines either.
I have a business VOIP line, and a cell. I have not had a landline in about 7-8 years.
I'm 29, and I'd say about 75% of people I know no longer have a landline, they just use their cell. If they do have a regular phone in the house, it's almost always a VOIP though a cable modem or DSL.
Crap, I'm an Obama supporter with a land line (of course I haven't answered it in two weeks, nobody calls me on it), now what
Another good point, if I DID have a land line I certainly wouldn't be answering it for unknown callers, let alone answering an unknown caller's questions about my politics!!!!!!!!!!
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