[BelleFontaineMan]

The new Vintage 2021 State Population is in

Alabama only gained 15k residents since July 1, 2020 from 5,024,279 to 5,039,877.... Which is utter garbage, I am not convinced for a single minute that Alabama only gained 15k, that's a growth rate of just .3% compared to a yearly average of .5% in the 2010s, which the current Alabama economy is producing twice as many jobs and twice as many homes since that time.

I supposed it is worth noting that Alabama lost 16k residents since the start of the pandemic.


Some Statistics: The U.S had a .13% population growth from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021
In Numerical Growth, Alabama Ranked 16th in the country
In Percentage Growth, Alabama Ranked 20nd in the country

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by BelleFontaineMan

The new Vintage 2021 State Population is in

Alabama only gained 15k residents since July 1, 2020 from 5,024,279 to 5,039,877.... Which is utter garbage, I am not convinced for a single minute that Alabama only gained 15k, that's a growth rate of just .3% compared to a yearly average of .5% in the 2010s, which the current Alabama economy is producing twice as many jobs and twice as many homes since that time.

I supposed it is worth noting that Alabama lost 16k residents since the start of the pandemic.


Some Statistics: The U.S had a .13% population growth from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021
In Numerical Growth, Alabama Ranked 16th in the country
In Percentage Growth, Alabama Ranked 20nd in the country

Woops - I didn't notice your post.

15,000 is probably about right. It's only a little over a year, from the end of April 2020 to July 1, 2021 (14 months), so if anything it might be optimistic. It'll be interesting to see how the number splits with the county estimates in March and the city estimates in May. Of course, by then it'll almost be time for the July 2022 estimates (no idea why it takes them so long to calculate and release the numbers). Just a guess, but I suspect Madison, Baldwin, and Lee will continue to be the dominant counties.

Mississippi dropped about 12,000 and California lost about 300,000 (so there really is something to the notion that people are leaving that state).

[Chris_NorthHSV]

No estimates between now and 2030 are going to be correct. They were 100,000 short on the 2020 census estimates.

[steveklein]

Keep in mind about 10,000 died in that timeframe from COVID. Granted, some of those people would have died anyway, but I imagine there were something like 6-8k deaths over expectation.

I'm not sure why people think Alabama is growing so much. It's like people have never been to areas where there is serious growth going on. The number of large development projects absolutely dwarfs what we have here.

[Mississippi Alabama Line]

Originally Posted by steveklein

Keep in mind about 10,000 died in that timeframe from COVID. Granted, some of those people would have died anyway, but I imagine there were something like 6-8k deaths over expectation.

I'm not sure why people think Alabama is growing so much. It's like people have never been to areas where there is serious growth going on. The number of large development projects absolutely dwarfs what we have here.

I tend to agree with this. All I've heard over the last few years is this astronomical growth in Huntsville and Baldwin County. Then I would go, and while there was 'new' growth, let's just say it wasn't Austin.

Still solid places with plenty of good things happening. I made money on Huntsville real estate after the 2008 crash, that should tell you something.

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by steveklein

Keep in mind about 10,000 died in that timeframe from COVID. Granted, some of those people would have died anyway, but I imagine there were something like 6-8k deaths over expectation.

I'm not sure why people think Alabama is growing so much. It's like people have never been to areas where there is serious growth going on. The number of large development projects absolutely dwarfs what we have here.

If you'll look back through posts over the past few years, you'll find many qualifications that the growth is "good for Alabama". I don't think anybody is pretending it's anywhere near that of Austin, DFW, Houston, and many other areas in the country, including Nashville. It's just rapid for Alabama.

[BelleFontaineMan]

Originally Posted by steveklein

Keep in mind about 10,000 died in that timeframe from COVID. Granted, some of those people would have died anyway, but I imagine there were something like 6-8k deaths over expectation.

I'm not sure why people think Alabama is growing so much. It's like people have never been to areas where there is serious growth going on. The number of large development projects absolutely dwarfs what we have here.

All you have to do is look around you.

In my personally experience,
where I grew in South Mobile County, I rarely ever saw a house under construction growing up, maybe like 2 or 3 during the most of 2010s. Then suddenly in 2019 homes have just starting popping up. Bellefontaine where I grew up (a very small area only about a square mile or two in size) only produced a single home in the 2010s. Since 2020 about 6 new homes have been built, a subdivision is currently being planned in the CDP, land is being sold as quickly as they go up. a few businesses are popping up. Farther down on Mon Louis Island another subdivision is being built. About 15 waterfront homes have been built between Bellefontaine and Dauphin Island. Go west and there are two subdivisions being built on half mile rd. In irvington homes are popping up in basically any open lot available, not sure how many have actually built. In the heart of Theodore they are building a massive subdivision that could be as much as 300-400 new homes (if you have ever been to Theodore, it is not a place you would have thought they would build a subidivison)

Keep in mind that these are areas where I had only seen a total of 2-3 houses be constructed for most of the 2010s


We can go statistical as well: Year over Year home production has grown 11%. Home production has grown 25% between 2020 Census and what's happened so far in 2030 census. In 2019 Alabama was ranked 18th in home production and now in 2021 has gone up to 15. In 2020, Alabama had the among the highest imbound vs outbound migration pattern in the country. Alabama was among just 7 states to actually have job growth during the Pandemic. In 2020 Alabama was ranked 11th in terms of total number of investment projects, only 2 behind Pennsylvania to be in the top 10.

Of course no single place is booming more than another, Alabama is one of the few states without 10+ million residents that has multiple places to move to. You have Huntsville, Mobile, and Birmingham that are all growing almost equally as well as several growing smaller metros like Montgomery, Auburn, Tuscaloosa, Dothan etc. Most states our caliber don't have (also Alabama is not Texas)

[RocketDawg]

To put things in perspective - Travis County (Austin), TX had 27,110 building permits in 2020. The state of Alabama had 19,982.

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by BelleFontaineMan

Of course no single place is booming more than another, Alabama is one of the few states without 10+ million residents that has multiple places to move to. You have Huntsville, Mobile, and Birmingham that are all growing almost equally as well as several growing smaller metros like Montgomery, Auburn, Tuscaloosa, Dothan etc. Most states our caliber don't have (also Alabama is not Texas)

Mmm- not sure that's true.

[BelleFontaineMan]

Originally Posted by RocketDawg

Mmm- not sure that's true.

Very true, in terms of home production. Mobile, Huntsville, and Birmingham have had 5,386; 6,666; 5,418 building permits respectively so far in the 2030 census, which is not that far apart from each other