Has prices of Alpharetta/Johns Creek gone up more than East Cobb over the last ten years (Atlanta: real estate)

[fzx]

We are at the initial phase of looking for a property (400k-500K) with a good public system. By just browsing the properties online, it seems to me that the properties in Alpharetta/Johns Creek doubled from late 90s or early 2000s while the ones in East Cobb have not gone up that much. Obviously I am comparing oranges to apples because the properties in the North are newer. However, if we plan to stay for 15yr+ (to put our current toddlers through college), the age wont matter that much then. So here are my two questions:

1. Has the prices of Alpharetta/JC up more than E.Cobb?
2. What will you think the prices for both areas in the next decade and why?

[red92s]

What's the stock broker line? "Past performance does not guarantee future results"? Something like that?

Point is, I wouldnt try and draw any real trend lines from real estate values over the past two decades and draw meaningful purchasing advice from it. What happened back then has no bearing on buying a house now, or selling it again in the future. Current day, both are well regarded, desirable areas. If this is a 15+ year purchase for you, forget about return on investment, and go with the home that offers the location and resources that will allow you and your family to live your "best life". The difference in "extra" equity two decades from now between those locations won't be life-changing money, so you might as well go with what bests fits your budget, wishlist, and lifestyle now.

[Clayton white guy]

Good advice above. I must point out additionally that many (if not most) of the homes in East Cobb are older (I am not talking historic properties here, but built in the mid to late 80's) much like much of the Roswell area (lots of 70's and 80's era homes there outside the downtown Roswell core). Much of Alpharetta and Johns Creek (particularly east of 400) are new builds or much newer builds. That being said, that does not make the older homes terrible. Being in more affluent areas they have undoubtedly been updated over time. Kind of like how many of the exclusive Intown areas have all the latest finishes in a 80-100 year old home. The bigger trade-off may come with floor plans. I would wager you would find less "open kitchens" and more formal living rooms in some of these older homes. If I were you I would pick the neighborhood that is closer to your job. Commute time is golden here in the congested metro-Atlanta area. Best of luck on your search.

[fzx]

Thanks for the suggestions above. We are more open to E.Cobb at this point since obvious newer homes carry premiums. Although I somewhat can predict where I am going to work (fingers crossed), my husband's job may change over time. He is an IT programmer so it is safe to bet he works either in Alpharetta or Midtown at some point. That is the reason we are just loosely looking.

We are ok with older floor plans from the entertainment perspective, but we do hope that at least 3bdr on one floor so we can live closer to our kids.

[bellhead]

Which ever one gets a Marta line expansion first is going to have a higher rate of return. This is based upon housing values in other cities in the US facing the same circumstances. 400 is more than likely to get a connection to Alpharretta than Cobb is to Kennesaw, this will give people a much better commuting option into the perimeter...

[Tarzanman]

If you really want bang for your investing buck then you should live in the middle of the city. There is no way to tell what real estate in Alpharetta or Cobb will do.

Both areas have their own particular political/logistic/economic baggage. The lack of density (compared to other large cities) within the city of Atlanta will probably keep areas as far out as east Cobb or Alpharetta from getting too ridiculous. Public school quality is probably as good an indicator as anything else as to how desireable these areas will be in 15 years.

I don't see a MARTA line as having much of an effect unless Atlanta's economy picks up considerably.

[Clayton white guy]

If you prefer the bedrooms on the same floor, the older homes in East Cobb are also less likely to have "masters on main". That seems to be a "newer" feature. I have seen a "guest bedroom/ office" on the main floor in some Reagan Era Homes, though.

[robogeek]

I live in Alpharetta and have seen prices/values, post 2008, rising nicely, and what we're seeing now is a lot of new $500K-600k subdivisions which is pulling up the values of the $400k-500K houses. I see a lot of potential upside in Alpharetta, they just built a new City Hall complex, the new Avalon mixed use complex, and several other similar projects.

For me the selling point, besides the schools, the parks, and the location is the quality of services such as police/fire/ems. Alpharetta has fire stations no more than three miles apart and they have a well funded, and a professionally managed department of public safety with a unified command structure. Bottom line is, if you look at sites like CrimeReports dot com, the incidence of crime here is very low, and the responsiveness of the police, fire, and EMS is very good.