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Atlanta is one of my favorite cities but I don’t live there so feel free to skip reading or take my thoughts fwiw. I live in LA and when I visit Atlanta it seems very underpopulated to me. Not trolling but to my eyes parts of the city appear rural to me and many areas outside the perimeter look rural to my eyes. Not what some might expect for a legit big city, which Atlanta certainly is.
Atlanta can grow in two ways. One way is to fill in gaps as mentioned in the OP and the other way is to densify areas near transit. Atlanta has lots of room to do both and could add 50% to its population and still have much of the same feel that it has now. I personally hope that it does both, but the “we full” crowd aka NIMBYs is very strong and prevalent in Atlanta and I’m not sure that changes anytime soon.
Atlanta proper could very easily get to a 1mil population city, and without even remotely losing its leafy-green, lower-density character and charm that gives it that whole Atlanta feel. It doesn't need to be anything even remotely like NY, LA, Chicago, or any other city, at all. Just a better version of the Atlanta that we all know. With more smart type density that increases QOL.
I think they should take that Glenwood Park development (that everyone raves about, even the urbanists), and copy/paste something like that, with its townhome-style homes with tastefully hidden parking, all around the immediate vicinity of the Lakewood, Oakland City, West End, Hamilton Holmes, West Lake, Ashby, Vine City, Inman Park, Edgewood, and East Lake MARTA stations. In a way that tapers down from 5-story street-facing apartments gradually into the single family homes.
Those areas are never going to be high-rise districts with a ton of density, and they don't need to be. But they also shouldn't be suburbs of Atlanta, with big surface parking lots. They should be urban neighborhoods of in-town Atlanta.
And then all the MARTA station vicinities between Garnett and Buckhead, should be densified to the max, including on top of the stations. They could easily build like 3 40-story mixed-use towers on top of Arts Center station, integrated into it.
I agree 100%. But why do you think the city is so underpopulated? Is it just that people are unreasonably scared of the City of Atlanta (particularly the south and western sides of the city)? Or are we still just a little city with dreams of making it big?
In the comment sections of publications like the AJC, it seems suburbanites either diss or generally express an acute fear/apprehension toward the City of Atlanta every chance they get. This is often with some unfounded political slant. Do you think we can shake that stereotype in the foreseeable future?
I’m very confident the city will continue to grow, but I’m not sure if we’ll see the growth of other comparable cities in our lifetime. I hope so…
If you're a reader and a history/planning nerd, I would recommend reading Crabgrass Frontier by Kenneth Jackson (published in 1985). Though the author clearly expresses negative views of modern American suburbia, he does an excellent job of describing the conditions which led to its existence and through the 1980s. If you're not a reader, then this Wikipedia article about the book provides a quick summary.
But in short... I think the appeal of suburbia is more for suburbs and less against cities. Given the results of a century of federal, state, and local policy, given American cultural preferences, given new technological innovations, and given economic conditions... suburbs and suburban-style neighborhoods have more appeal to more Americans (and Georgians) than more urban neighborhoods. Most households act rationally, and in the case of Atlanta, suburbia is typically the most logical choice for most households. Sure, unfounded fear of cities and fearmongering by news media contributes to the equation, but I strongly doubt it's the primary driver of decision-making for most.
Anyway, below is my rough timeline of the events of the past century (summarized in part from Crabgrass Frontier) which turned Atlanta into the world's least-densely-populated major metropolis:
1890s: Atlanta's streetcar network begins to develop, and its residents now have another method of transport besides walking or horse-and-buggy. The first suburbs begin to form -- now neighborhoods just outside of Downtown such as Inman Park, West End, Adair Park, Grant Park, etc. Households with means begin to move to these "streetcar suburbs" in part to get away from the filth and noise of the city ("city" being what is now Downtown Atlanta).
1900s to 1920s: Most new population growth occurs along the new streetcar lines in more distant "streetcar suburbs": Kirkwood, Oakhurst, Virginia-Highland, Ansley Park, Westview, etc. Atlantans of means continue to prefer the new housing and "rural character" offered by these outer neighborhoods, even at the expense of a streetcar fare and longer commutes.
1930s: The gasoline-powered car starts to become widely-accessible to the wealthy, and eventually, the middle-class. The wealthy quickly adopt the new technology. Cars provide more freedom of movement, and people with cars no longer are constrained to walkable neighborhoods or neighborhoods along streetcar lines. In Buckhead -- a tranquil, hilly, forested, formerly unproductive rural area upstream of Atlanta -- the wealthy begin building car-dependent country estates away from the Peachtree Road streetcar line and the hustle and bustle of Atlanta, but still benefit from easy access to Atlanta by car. The Buckhead way of life quickly becomes the aspiration of most middle-class families in Atlanta. On the other side of the coin, the Great Depression takes its toll on the poor, and the first public housing developments ("the projects") are built.
1940s: Homeownership becomes widely-subsidized via mortgage insurance and mortgage interest deductions, signaling a preference among lawmakers for new suburban developments. "Redlining" occurs, and the government refuses to insure mortgages in "hazardous" neighborhoods. Coincidentally, all of the "hazardous" neighborhoods are old (and at this point, African-American) neighborhoods near Downtown -- lowering demand to live in those older neighborhoods. Balloon framing of wooden houses makes new houses on the outskirts much easier and cheaper to construct. World War II happens. The veterans return home and begin creating families; VA home loans make the purchase of these new mass-produced houses easy and cheap. Modest middle-class neighborhoods begin to grow rapidly primarily in suburban DeKalb County (North Decatur, Belvedere Park, Chamblee, what's now Brookhaven, etc.); nearly all of the population growth in Metro Atlanta occurs in these neighborhoods. With lobbying from carmakers such as Ford and GM, lawmakers rip out the streetcar tracks, and streetcar service stops (it was mostly replaced by "trackless trolleys" aka buses).
1950s: The entire middle class has cars now. The enclosed shopping mall surrounded by a sea of parking (which is difficult to access without a car) takes off and becomes the norm. Businesses begin to relocate out of aging Downtown Atlanta and into suburban shopping malls. The Eisenhower administration devises the Interstate Highway system. "Urban Renewal" takes place in Atlanta, and entire "undesirable" (typically Black) neighborhoods (Washington-Rawson, part of Summerhill, part of Home Park, Sweet Auburn, Buttermilk Bottoms, etc.) are cleared to make way for freeways, highways, expressways, Civic Centers, and stadiums. This forced depopulation of central Atlanta further decimates commercial businesses in Downtown, and more public housing is constructed in car-dependent neighborhoods on the outskirts of south and west Atlanta to accommodate those who lost homes (despite most of these people not being able to afford cars -- who thought that was a good idea?). At a time of heightened racial tensions, freeways have a secondary purpose of enforcing segregation. Downtown's fate is now sealed.
1960s: The Civil Rights movement happens, and legal racial segregation ends. Schools are integrated, and "White Flight" ensues as White parents don't want their children to attend schools with Black children. Depopulation of the City of Atlanta begins, driven by middle-class and working-class Whites leaving for new suburbs outside of Fulton and DeKalb Counties. An ever-expanding Black middle-class begins moving into formerly-White neighborhoods, particularly in Southwest Atlanta. Nearly all-White Cobb County becomes a preferred destination of middle-class Whites, and nearly all-White Clayton County becomes a preferred destination of working-class Whites; rapid suburban growth begins to shift away from DeKalb County and towards Cobb and Clayton Counties. Wealthy and influential whites in Atlanta -- most of whom reside in Buckhead -- largely continue to enroll their children in exclusive private schools, and as a result, most stay in Buckhead (some move into adjacent unincorporated Fulton County, now Sandy Springs). The depopulation begins to lower the tax base and hurt finances in the City of Atlanta.
1970s: Globalization and automation take off, and companies begin laying off workers, shutting down, or moving operations outside of the United States. This phenomenon begins to hurt blue-collar Atlanta neighborhoods such as Pittsburgh, Mechanicsville, and Cabbagetown, which experience rapid increases in poverty due to lack of available jobs. Simultaneously, white-collar service-industry work begins to take off in car-dependent suburban office parks along interstate highways. Some companies near Downtown Atlanta relocate their operations to the suburbs. The growth of Buckhead, Cumberland, and Perimeter as jobs hubs begins. The economy of central Atlanta declines, further contributing to depopulation. Atlanta tax revenues decline further, and aging infrastructure begins to deteriorate while taxes increase. The old, aging infrastructure and higher taxes further encourage movement to the suburbs. The City is unquestionably in decline at this point. Crime begins to increase, and poor youths begin to form street gangs. Also, Highway 400 opens as an economic development project meant in part to connect North Fulton and Forsyth Counties -- then a rural, poor, "Appalachian" area -- to jobs; the suburbanization of this area began slowly as Cobb County (and to some extent, Gwinnett County) were seen as more desirable and established (remember, there is no railroad in North Fulton).
1980s: Crime in the city increases rapidly, mostly as a result of increasing poverty plus declining infrastructure and blight ("broken windows" theory). The crack epidemic doesn't help, and blighted neighborhoods such as "The Bluff" (Vine City + English Ave) become known as drug-dealing hotspots as well as violent crime hotspots (drug wars/turf wars between gangs occur). This crime increase -- along with failing schools -- triggered what I'll call "Black Flight" out of Atlanta, where middle-class and working-class Blacks began leaving the City of Atlanta for the suburbs. Eastern and Southern DeKalb County was often the landing spot of choice for these families -- the White families who moved to this area of DeKalb County a generation earlier opted to move farther out into brand-new "swim-tennis" subdivisions in rapidly-growing, nearly all-White Gwinnett County, leaving this area of DeKalb County with a glut of relatively-new, relatively-nice, and relatively cheap housing. Poorer Black families who couldn't afford DeKalb often chose the more affordable and working-class Clayton County (the expansion of the Airport provided decent jobs in Clayton too). In many blighted, impoverished Atlanta neighborhoods, the only people left were those who couldn't afford to leave -- the very poor and unemployed, often living in public housing. To improve the tax base, the City of Atlanta began recruiting corporations to relocate (with incentives) in exchange for future economic growth.
1990s: Clayton County, DeKalb County, and South Fulton County flip from majority-White to majority-Black, triggering what I'll call "White Flight 2.0" -- White Flight from suburbs to exurbs. Conservative White residents of Clayton, DeKalb and South Fulton begin leaving for nearly all-White and exurban Paulding, Douglas, Coweta, Fayette, Henry, Rockdale, Newton, and Walton Counties, as well as certain areas of Cobb and Gwinnett Counties. Meanwhile, the freeway revolts against the proposed I-485 on the east side of Atlanta (Inman Park, Virginia-Highland, Morningside, Midtown, etc.) were successful, and gentrification/revitalization started to begin there as these neighborhoods were a small stronghold of political/cultural progressivism in an era of overwhelming southern conservatism. Additionally, at this time, Highway 400 was widened, and new Fiber Optic cables (internet) were laid in the Alpharetta area... this jumpstarted the rapid growth of North Fulton County's tech economy and population. Nearly all-White North Fulton quickly became the most desirable suburban area of Atlanta (instead of Cobb/Gwinnett) due to its high-paying jobs and its nice, new, big suburban homes in large "swim-tennis" neighborhoods. International immigration increased, and certain older inner-suburbs (Chamblee, Doraville, North Decatur) were revitalized a bit by immigrants.
2000s: New suburbs and exurbs all around Atlanta began to grow rapidly due to massive domestic migration (transplants) as well as international migration (immigrants); these families were seeking the good suburban life at an affordable price, and the coasts were getting expensive -- all possible due to corporate relocations and white-collar job growth. Perceptions of Atlanta also changed after the Olympics (from "southern" to "global"), which further contributed to migration at the fringes of Atlanta by skeptical northerners. Meanwhile, the City of Atlanta was now much safer than it had been a decade earlier (economic growth helped a lot, as well as the removal of public housing projects and the dispersal of their residents elsewhere), and interest in living intown started to pick up as there were lots of nice but cheap older homes in nice neighborhoods which just needed some TLC. Worsening traffic, more jobs intown, and a younger, more community-oriented, "neighborly", progressive culture intown also contributed to increased interest. The revitalization of the eastside is well underway by the end of the decade.
2010s: The massive Millennial generation -- most of whom were raised in the "boring" suburbs -- begins to express an increased preference for city living, making them the first generation in well over a century to do so. After the recession, Atlanta's economy improved, and many young people chose to live in "fun", walkable, convenient neighborhoods near their Downtown, Midtown, and Buckhead workplaces. The first segments of the Beltline Trail open, and population growth intown skyrockets. Housing prices intown are still relatively reasonable, and the "millennial lifestyle subsidy" funded by venture capital makes app-based services convenient and reasonably-priced. Atlanta's urban neighborhoods and suburban/exurban neighborhoods increase in population at roughly the same rate for the first time in a over a century. Traditional car-dependent suburban institutions (like malls) falter at the expense of mixed-use "lifestyle centers" -- many of which sprout up in the Atlanta suburbs and provide a bit of "urban" character to places like Alpharetta. Suburban "main streets" thrive. A small segment of the massive baby-boomer generation gravitates intown -- and to the new mixed-use suburban areas -- along with their millennial children. Meanwhile, immigrants (both first and second-generation) and nonwhite transplants drive growth in the more traditional suburbs and exurbs.
2020s (early): The COVID pandemic happens, and everything shuts down. Metro Atlanta embraces remote working and remote learning. Many of the places that make cities "fun" close down, most temporarily. City housing prices had increased a lot due to higher demand to live there -- surpassing most of the suburbs. Crime increases almost everywhere, but most noticeably in the City (the perception of crime increases even more). Atlanta (and DeKalb) schools remain virtual while most suburban districts return to in-person learning. Demand for larger homes and home offices increases. Mortgage rates are extremely low, and the supply of money in the economy increases rapidly due to COVID aid. Universities remain virtual, and students return home. More Millennials start having kids. All of these factors cause a flight of (mostly white-collar) remote workers to larger suburban and exurban homes, away from the flaws -- both perceived and real -- of the City of Atlanta and surrounding areas. Exurban counties with lax COVID policies, well-rated schools, and big houses -- Cherokee and Forsyth in particular -- grow rapidly while the City's population drops slightly or stagnates. Housing prices begin to escalate everywhere, as few people have incentive to sell and move -- particularly in the suburbs and exurbs, which appreciate in price at a faster rate than urban neighborhoods.
Prediction: 2020s (late): Hybrid work will be the preferred arrangement of most white-collar workplaces. Crime in the City will return to pre-pandemic lows. Rents in the City will stagnate due to a massive increase in new supply of housing (particularly apartments), while for-sale homes -- particularly single-family homes and townhomes -- will remain expensive and in short supply; the equation will become more favorable for renting than buying for many younger Millennials and older Gen Z. Like the generation before them, Generation Z will express an increased preference for walkable, amenity-rich urban neighborhoods and suburban town centers, and young people will continue to move intown, particularly from Florida (which is becoming too expensive and uninsurable and has low pay for jobs), the Northeast (which refuses to build enough new housing and is crazy expensive), and their parents' basements in the Atlanta suburbs. Rapid population growth will shift from the eastside to the more affordable westside and southside, particularly along the Beltline. The movement of downsizing empty-nesters into the City will pick up a bit. Population growth intown will be less White and more multiracial than the decade prior, with significant increases in particular in the populations of young Asians and Hispanics in comparison to the decade prior. The City and the suburbs/exurbs will continue to grow at similar rates, similar to the 2010s decade.
Last edited by DoubleZ OTP; 06-27-2023 at 03:52 PM..
In this situation, I’m specifically referring to the City of Atlanta proper. 10% of the metro population seems pretty small to me by comparison. Perhaps 25% would be more reasonable considering that it is one of the top major southern cities.
I’m not 100% sure, but don’t the Cities of Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles, New York, etc. contain far more than 10% of their metro populations?
Miami is less than 10% of it's metro as well, with both cities The 10% thing is misleading because annexation
I used to think Sunbelt cities like Dallas have large city limits, until I started looking other US and world cities.
Atlanta, Miami, Philly, Boston, Minneapolis, Seattle, SF, Boston, St. Louis and few others have Small city limits
but NY, LA, Chicago, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, San Diego, Austin, Jacksonville, Fort Worth, Columbus, Charlotte, Indianapolis, Oklahoma City, Louisville, Memphis, etc etc etc all are over 250 sq mi most are over 300 sq mi.
if Atlanta was 300 to 400 sq mi. It would be a 1/4 to 1/5 of metro population. So part of reason Atlanta is 10% of metro population is semantic of city limits. Stuff like Ethnic claves of Buford Hwys. Cumberland, and Perimeter center, Roswell, parts of Dekalb and Cobb would inside one city.
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As far as pedestrian activity I think the 60's urban renewal really set the city back, So Atlanta is now young trying established a pedestrian culture and density.
Greater LA is known for sprawl but it's quite dense, and has famous places like Hollywood walk, Rodeo, Sunset strip, Vince Beach etc. etc where people would gather.
This is why projected like Beltline is important, as well as the projects in Downtown. A lot of projects in city in midtown and west midtown wasn't there 10 ago. They will have more pedestrian activity as they grow and mature.
Beltline will be city defining for Atlanta, 15 years ago most of this wasn't there, 10 years from now a lot more of the beltline will be develop.
Once a place is develop it take time for it establish as place people want to hang out etc. And so much up of Atlanta is new in terms of new urbanity.
There a lot in store for Central Atlanta. Downtown centennial yards and The South Downtown redevelopment. is going really change people perception of Downtown. People go the museums etc of centennial park will be able to hang out area longer in centennial yards .
If you're a reader and a history/planning nerd, I would recommend reading Crabgrass Frontier by Kenneth Jackson (published in 1985). Though the author clearly expresses negative views of modern American suburbia, he does an excellent job of describing the conditions which led to its existence and through the 1980s. If you're not a reader, then this Wikipedia article about the book provides a quick summary.
Well, coincidentally, I am a reader and a history/planning nerd. So I will definitely check out the book. Your synopsis of Atlanta’s evolution is pretty spot on. But I guess we can only speculate on what the future holds.
I wonder how many years it will be before the City of Atlanta reaches a population of 750,000 to a million. Another decade? Or perhaps two or three decades? I’m in my mid-40s now, so while I love Atlanta for what it is today, I’m not sure if I will see that type of growth in my lifetime (or at least before I’m in my 60s).
Last edited by equinox63; 06-27-2023 at 09:26 PM..
The vast majority of the growth is to the suburbs, not the city.
I don't see Atlanta hitting 750,000, let alone a million anytime soon. People move here for the suburbs. People here want land and acres and a big car. There are literally many parts of the south and west atlanta that look rural. Yet those areas stay stagnant meanwhile areas like Gwinnett and North Fulton can't stop building subdivisions.
The vast majority of the growth is to the suburbs, not the city.
I don't see Atlanta hitting 750,000, let alone a million anytime soon. People move here for the suburbs. People here want land and acres and a big car. There are literally many parts of the south and west atlanta that look rural. Yet those areas stay stagnant meanwhile areas like Gwinnett and North Fulton can't stop building subdivisions.
Do you think the same can be said about Chicago, Houston, Dallas, DC, etc.? Or do you believe this is primarily the case just in Metro Atlanta?
Secondly, I don’t think all people moving to Atlanta desire what you are describing. I know many people (myself included) who do not want acres of land and a big car in a cookie cutter subdivision. I am not saying that the city has to outpace the suburbs. But I’m just asking about the growth of the city in its own right.
I agree that the south and west sides of the city are suburban and seemingly rural in many areas. And much of it is residential. So, in theory, people can have a big house and big car within the city limits as well without the hustle/bustle of living downtown/midtown (or even parts of Cobb or Gwinnett for that matter). Consider Cascade, Adams Park, or Collier Heights for example. I don’t think the space/density in those areas is very different from older subdivisions in Cobb or Gwinnett.
The parents and students who choose to attend determine the quality of the schools. So that could also change for the better relatively quickly depending on which families move into a particular area. If you remember, the most popular neighborhoods on the east side were at one point worse in many regards than much of the residential areas on the south and west sides of the city until about 20 years ago.
I guess the point I’m making is that there is little validity to the “Atlanta’s full“ argument because there is plenty of land to build upon within the city limits to create the type of lifestyle that you are describing (probably minus a long commute). If you are saying that most people enjoy a suburban/rural environment, and many parts of the city are suburban/rural in nature, wouldn’t that make those areas prime for development?
This is why I think perception plays a greater role than some would like to admit…
Last edited by equinox63; 06-28-2023 at 08:37 AM..
if Atlanta was 300 to 400 sq mi. It would be a 1/4 to 1/5 of metro population. So part of reason Atlanta is 10% of metro population is semantic of city limits. Stuff like Ethnic claves of Buford Hwys. Cumberland, and Perimeter center, Roswell, parts of Dekalb and Cobb would inside one city.
I wonder how many years it will be before the City of Atlanta reaches a population of 750,000 to a million. Another decade? Or perhaps two or three decades? I’m in my mid-40s now, so while I love Atlanta for what it is today, I’m not sure if I will see that type of growth in my lifetime (or at least before I’m in my 60s).
Not for a long time, I think. Perhaps no sooner than 2050.
I believe that the City of Atlanta will continue to increase in population at a rate of between 50,000 and 75,000 per decade -- similar to or slightly less than the 2010s decade. Given the population of ~500,000 in 2020, the City of Atlanta would reach the 750,000 threshold sometime between 2054 and 2070. This is all speculation; obviously I don't have a crystal ball.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ggplicks
The vast majority of the growth is to the suburbs, not the city.
I don't see Atlanta hitting 750,000, let alone a million anytime soon. People move here for the suburbs. People here want land and acres and a big car. There are literally many parts of the south and west atlanta that look rural. Yet those areas stay stagnant meanwhile areas like Gwinnett and North Fulton can't stop building subdivisions.
In terms of raw numbers, you're absolutely right. The vast, vast majority of Metro Atlanta -- more than 90% -- consists of suburbs outside of the City of Atlanta. Indeed, it is the suburbs and exurbs where most relocate to, either by choice or out of necessity.
However, in terms of percentage, rate, or ratio... The City of Atlanta is growing in population at roughly the same rate as its suburbs. At least it had been during the 2010s... it remains to be seen if that trend will hold during the 2020s, but building permit data indicates that it will hold... the City of Atlanta is outbuilding most of the suburbs at the moment, believe it or not -- the difference is that most of the new housing in the City of Atlanta is medium-density and high-density multifamily housing, so it may not feel like there's as much housing being built intown. A typical new 5-over-1 apartment building, when fully-leased, has a population density of about 75/acre, whereas a typical new suburban single-family home neighborhood, when fully-sold, has a population density of about 20/acre. A Midtown apartment/condo high-rise has a density of between 250/acre and 500/acre.
In 2010, the City of Atlanta had a population of 420,003. In 2020, the City of Atlanta had a population of 498,715. This was an increase of 78,712 or 18.74%. Source.
In 2010, the Atlanta Metro Area (minus the City of Atlanta) had a population of 4,848,857. In 2020, the Atlanta Metro Area (minus the City of Atlanta) had a population of 5,591,100. This was an increase of 742,243 or 15.31%
In summary: during the 2010s decade, the City of Atlanta actually experienced a higher rate of population growth (18.74%) than the surrounding suburban/exurban area (15.31%).
I remain convinced that both the City of Atlanta and the suburbs/exurbs will continue to increase in population at similar rates over the course of the 2020s. I believe that both will grow by about 12% from 2020 to 2030 -- 12% growth across the board would result in the following:
+59,846 people in the City of Atlanta, for a total population of 558,561 in 2030.
+670,932 people in the suburbs/exurbs, for a total population of 6,262,032 in 2030.
+730,778 people in the entire Metro Area, for a total population of 6,820,593 in 2030.
The vast majority of the growth is to the suburbs, not the city.
I don't see Atlanta hitting 750,000, let alone a million anytime soon. People move here for the suburbs. People here want land and acres and a big car. There are literally many parts of the south and west atlanta that look rural. Yet those areas stay stagnant meanwhile areas like Gwinnett and North Fulton can't stop building subdivisions.
This ^.
There's not really a coherent (or enjoyable IMO) downtown experience, there's 5 different ones which compete with each other. There's more people walking around Taos on a Sunday afternoon than there is by the CNN center; that's a real problem and flop on the planning part. The metro just exploded in the late 20th century and instead of building a connected urban fabric it just went out.
They sure need to build a more coherent and connected and evenly developed city experience. The suburb party is going to come to an end soon enough as there simply isn't a way to get people moved around. The WFHers and retirees are going somewhere less hectic like Lake Oconee. The economic capital of the southeast has to do something to not be LA where need a car and hope around 10 miles between stops to get the city experience.
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