How long before Austin turns into another SF, NYC, Seattle? (Houston: transplants, real estate)

[sliverbox]

I'm sure this subject has been brought up numerous times here. But as someone on the outside living in Cali and after visiting a few years ago I'm curious what some of the locals think they're seeing in Austin. I say this because it seems that with the tremendous amount of people moving in from the coasts, willing to pay $400,000+ for homes, wanting specific amenities, and so on and so on I can't help but wonder if at some point the attributes that currently make Austin desirable- mainly in that it is affordable- will begin to erode away as the cost of living ultimately rises and in turn basically makes the city into yet another unaffordable metro like SF, NYC, Boston, and so on.

My somewhat lame observations from reading this site and after visiting are that there are a number of pocket hoity-toity areas within the immediate central areas of Austin near the city. Is this causing the immediate areas around these pockets to also gentrify? What's the situation with South Austin? Is it still affordable or is it too gentrifying? My other observation was that the suburban areas outside the city- like Round Rock, Barstrop, Buda, etc etc were pretty much where all the affordable action was- albeit maybe a lot of cookie cutter type stuff, but affordable just the same.

I only bring this up mainly because we're also one of "those people" leaving California. Mainly because California is not really affordable even to those that make decent money. The last thing we want to do is move from one overpriced metro to another. It would really suck if we moved from the Bay Area in a few years to Austin only to find that lo and behold, Austin had also jumped into unaffordable territory.

Just curious with other people's thoughts were about this in general.

[passionatearts]

Austin will never be like San Francisco, New York, Chicago, Boston, etc. even if Austin does grow to be the size of those cities. A more fair question would be: "How long before Austin turns into another Houston or Dallas?" because culturally and historically, Austin has way more in common with those cities than it does with any city on the east or west coasts (no matter how many Californians or New Yorkers move here).

Also, you keep using the word "affordable," but that term means different things to different people, and you never define what the word "affordable" means to you. What kind of lifestyle are you looking for, and what would you need to pay in housing and other costs for that lifestyle to be "affordable?"

[sinking]

I don't think Austin will ever be one of those cities. I think the "hipness" of Austin will wear off and so will the desires to live here as it falls off Top 10 lists and other cities take it's place.

[centralaustinite]

The dirt cheap days are pretty much past! But that is due to the Californians and others who moved here 10 years ago. There is still empty land and affordable areas within Austin proper (just not master-planned communities where you can get a huge house and yard for under $200K) for that, you definitely need to go to the suburbs.

Austin is one of higher priced areas of Texas but I'd hardly call it unaffordable. Remember, we do not have an ocean restricting growth or mountains! There is the water issue . . . but I don't see us becoming SF or NYC much less Seattle or Portland.

[sliverbox]

Also, you keep using the word "affordable," but that term means different things to different people, and you never define what the word "affordable" means to you. What kind of lifestyle are you looking for, and what would you need to pay in housing and other costs for that lifestyle to be "affordable?"

Affordable to me has a dollar amount. Meaning the cost of a house is below $250,000 but ideally at $200,000 max. I keep reading posts from people here who keep saying they want to live in "X" neighborhood(s) and the response keeps on coming back as

" Well, you'll never find anything that cheap in that area"

We're basically just looking for a typical middle class living situation meaning for us a smallish to medium sized house. Doesn't have to be fancy. Could be a old 60's or 70's house for all I care. a 2 bedroom deal would be fine. We have no kids so we don't care about schools. Yes- in a perfect world I too would like to live in a neighborhood with character and neat old homes. But it seems like those are the types of neighborhoods that cost an arm and a leg since EVERYONE wants to live in those places.

Let me just put it this way: Where we live now is unaffordable no matter where you choose. Regardless if its in the city, the burbs, or even some of the far-flung exurbs there is basically no homes- even smaller homes- for under $300,000. Most are at least $400,000-$450,000. So for us to live somewhat close to a city and actually be able to afford a home is pretty amazing.

[passionatearts]

I'm really getting annoyed with all the comparing of Austin to big cities in the East and West Coasts. I've lived in New York, San Francisco, and Boston, and no - Austin is virtually nothing like those cities save for some basic demographic similarities in a few areas.

I get the feeling that a lot of the comparing is a way for transplants to feel less homesick when they move to Austin.

[passionatearts]

Originally Posted by sliverbox

Affordable to me has a dollar amount. Meaning the cost of a house is below $250,000 but ideally at $200,000 max. I keep reading posts from people here who keep saying they want to live in "X" neighborhood(s) and the response keeps on coming back as

We're basically just looking for a typical middle class living situation meaning for us a smallish to medium sized house. Doesn't have to be fancy. Could be a old 60's or 70's house for all I care. a 2 bedroom deal would be fine. We have no kids so we don't care about schools. Yes- in a perfect world I too would like to live in a neighborhood with character and neat old homes. But it seems like those are the types of neighborhoods that cost an arm and a leg since EVERYONE wants to live in those places.

Let me just put it this way: Where we live now is unaffordable no matter where you choose. Regardless if its in the city, the burbs, or even some of the far-flung exurbs there is basically no homes- even smaller homes- for under $300,000. Most are at least $400,000-$450,000. So for us to live somewhat close to a city and actually be able to afford a home is pretty amazing.

There are plenty of houses within 5 miles of Downtown that fit your description. I paid $205,000 last year for a 3/2 house about 4 miles north of Downtown.

I'm not exactly sure what your specific requirements are, but it sounds like you could find what you want here. You should get in touch with some real estate agents and start looking around. Have you ever been to Austin before? If not, you probably should visit here.

[sliverbox]

I'm really getting annoyed with all the comparing of Austin to big cities in the East and West Coasts. I've lived in New York, San Francisco, and Boston, and no - Austin is virtually nothing like those cities save for some basic demographic similarities in a few areas.

I get the feeling that a lot of the comparing is a way for transplants to feel less homesick when they move to Austin.

This isn't a post about comparisons. To be frank I do NOT want Austin to become anything in anyway even remotely like any of the above cities mentioned above. I am originally from TN and after having lived on both coasts can honestly say that once we move if I never have to see either again it won't hurt my feelings. We won't be moving because we like the Bay Area and want to move somewhere that reminds us of it. I'm not going to whine about where to find pizza, subs, sushi, or other stuff.
My one and only concern is that Austin doesn't inherit the east or west coast's gentrification. I've lived with this for 12 years and I would love to live somewhere that isn't like this. period.

[centralaustinite]

You can still find that in south Austin, even in 78704 but definitely in 78745 and the whole east side. I think you'd like French Place, Wilshire Woods, even the Chestnut area.

[sliverbox]

There are plenty of houses within 5 miles of Downtown that fit your description. I paid $205,000 last year for a 3/2 house about 4 miles north of Downtown.

I'm not exactly sure what your specific requirements are, but it sounds like you could find what you want here. You should get in touch with some real estate agents and start looking around. Have you ever been to Austin before? If not, you probably should visit here.

We visited about 2 and a half years ago. Of course this was right when the housing market was starting to crater. My impression was that there seemed to be a lot of suburban areas within really close proximity to the city. That and the neighborhoods within the city fluctuated really drastically for no apparent reason that I could see. We went through this one neighborhood on one of the hills above the downtown area. Older houses. A lot of them were in the $500,000 range. Yet just a mile or so away prices dropped down to more reasonable levels. This would never happen in the Bay Area. It would ALL be expensive.