Nr (2014, leases, purchase)

[PacoMartin]

Eight of the next-generation Dreamliner 787-9s will initially join Qantas’ international fleet, with four to be delivered in the 2017-2018 financial year and four more in the successive 12 months. Each Qantas Boeing 787-9 will carry around 250 passengers in business class, premium economy and economy compared to an average 360 on the Red Roo’s Boeing 747s. So eight Dreamliners 8*250=2000 seats will replace five jumbo jets 5*360= 1800 seats which will be retired.

After the initial 8 Dreamliners, Qantas has 15 options and a further 30 purchase rights. Qantas will still have another 6 B747s, but they were delivered in 2002-2003 and are much more efficient version.

One possibility is to fly the Dreamliners to Northern America. Another is to develop Perth as the primary gateway to London. It would be possible to board a Dreamliner in Sydney, nestle in, and do a quick refueling stop in Perth where no one is permitted to embark or disembark. Connections from other cities might permit embarking and disembarking so that the people a Perth an opportunity to fly to London.

Either way I don't see Qantas taking delivery of those final 8 A380s, but instead they will exercise more options for Dreamliners.

[BCC_1]

A380s will be gone within a decade. Highly unlikely they'll exercise their options. The A380 has some serious issues with fuel/cargo/distance. As a passenger it's a fantastic aircraft. Qantas has canned the 747 SYD-LAX in the last day or so, and with LAN running a 787 service SYD-AKL-SCL that really only leaves SYD-JNB as a service that must be run with 4 engines. In five years time I wouldn't be surprised to see more services to North America, maybe even a 3x weekly to MEX with a 787.

There is absolutely no chance that they will use PER as a hub for London flights, for a variety of reasons.

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by BCC_1

There is absolutely no chance that they will use PER as a hub for London flights, for a variety of reasons.

Qantas group CEO Alan Joyce to the possibility of making Perth the Australian anchor for non-stop flights to London.

Perth seems to already have fairly good international service
Emirates: Dubai-International
Etihad Airways: Abu Dhabi
Qatar Airways: Doha
Cathay Pacific:Hong Kong
Singapore Airlines: Singapore
Jetstar Asia Airways: Singapore
Scoot: Singapore
Qantas: Singapore Seasonal: Auckland
Air New Zealand Auckland Seasonal: Christchurch
Malaysia Airlines Kuala Lumpur, Kota Kinabalu
Malindo Air Kuala Lumpur
AirAsia X Kuala Lumpur
Thai Airways Bangkok-Suvarnabhumi
South African Airways Johannesburg-O.R. Tambo
Air Mauritius Mauritius

Originally Posted by BCC_1

In five years time I wouldn't be surprised to see more services to North America, maybe even a 3x weekly to MEX with a 787.

I don't know about that as MEX is almost the exemplar of "high and dry". Perhaps if they actually build the new airport.

The flight from Mexico City to Shanghai must make a technical stop in Tijuana
12900 km Pudong International Airport, Shanghai, CN (PVG) to Juarez Intl, Mexico City, MX (MEX)
13000 km Sydney Kingsford Smith Arpt, Sydney, AU (SYD) to Juarez Intl, Mexico City, MX (MEX)

Originally Posted by BCC_1

A380s will be gone within a decade.

If you mean that they will stop delivering new ones within a decade, then I agree. My personal theory is that they won't deliver a new one after three years from now.

But I think they will fly for 30 years or more.

[BCC_1]

Originally Posted by PacoMartin

Qantas group CEO Alan Joyce to the possibility of making Perth the Australian anchor for non-stop flights to London.

I don't think he said that. He said there might be the possibility of a non-stop PER-LHR flight. They won't get rid of East coast-DXB-LHR because DXB has much better connections into Europe (unless you're going to the UK or Ireland flying to London involves backtracking) without the need to transit through LHR which is one of the worst in Europe to do so. Personally, I much rather fly via Asia than transit through Perth and I'd avoid an 18-19 hour direct flight like the plague.

Originally Posted by PacoMartin

Perth seems to already have fairly good international service

It does, but the only place Qantas flies to internationally from Perth is Singapore, and that seasonal Auckland service. Which tells you something about their priorities, and I guess the difficulty of being an end of line carrier.

Originally Posted by PacoMartin

I don't know about that as MEX is almost the exemplar of "high and dry". Perhaps if they actually build the new airport.

Yeah, you're right. That was just something off the top of my head. Back in the 1970s Qantas flew to Acapulco and Mexico City. The "Fiesta" route was, iirc, Pappette, Acapulco, Mexico City, Nassau, Bermuda.

Originally Posted by PacoMartin

If you mean that they will stop delivering new ones within a decade, then I agree. My personal theory is that they won't deliver a new one after three years from now.

But I think they will fly for 30 years or more.

No I mean Qantas will have gotten rid of their a380s within a decade.

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by BCC_1

No I mean Qantas will have gotten rid of their a380s within a decade.

Still an interesting conjecture. Unlike Emirates, AFAIK Qantas did not lease it's A380s. Selling them may not be easy.

Emirates has stated that when the lease is complete in 12 years, they will not renew the leases.

My own personal conjecture is that Emirates had a motive in mind when they cancelled the order for 70 A350s. Their first 90 orders for the A380 are using the Engine Alliance GP7000 (68 deliveries to date). They have another order in for 50 A380s using the Rolls-Royce Trent 900.

My theory is that they are going to be very angry if Airbus fails to start the neoA380 program. In punishment they will cancel their final order of fifty A380s, but will reinstate their previous order for seventy A350s to avoid legal action.

While Emirates has proclaimed loudly that they are happy with their A380s, they may want to limit their commitment to the airframe if it has no future.