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The auto industry has turned up on end the last few years. From 2005-2008, Toyota and Honda were unstoppable in sales and gained significant market share while each of the Big Three saw declines. However, since 2008, Ford has seen an increase that has defied industry trends. While GM and Chrysler sales were hurt during bankruptcy in 2009, Chrysler will post a gain in share this year and GM appears to be stabilizing at 19%. A hungry Hyundai has also posted significant gains since 2008, jumping from 5% to 7.2%. Toyota and Honda, on the other hand, will record declines in market share for 2010 despite an overall rising trend in the market.
The shift is illustrated again (above) in the bread-and-butter midsize sedan segment (anyone that wants to look up Nissans numbers, post them here and I'll add a new graph). Both Camry and Accord saw peak sales in 2007 with significant declines in following years. Meanwhile, its Ford, Hyundai, and Chevy competitors experienced overall stable sales throughout the recession and have seen significant increases since 2009.
So why are Toyota and Honda down in an up market?
In Toyota's case, it's a combination of factors. Recalls, decontented product, decline in quality, and declining loyalty have been the story for 2009. But another factor I believe is the fact that Toyota is letting their big name sellers like the Camry and Corolla languish. The Camry's last major redesign was 2006, and the Corolla's last significant redesign was 2003 (the 2009 & 2010 mild refreshes were cosmetic only). The Avalon and Scions have seen similar lackluster product updates. Toyota has poured resources into releasing multiple hybrid versions of cars that simply aren't selling; the Lexus HS hybrid will sell 10,000 this year if it is lucky.
Honda is mostly an issue with stale product and underwhelming new releases. I'd also say much of it is with Honda's trend toward strange design. Why else did the Accord's 2008 refresh not register with consumers? Recent Honda duds include the Crosstour, Insight, and CR-Z...while once decent sellers such as the Ridgeline and Element are also petering out.
Next year should be a repeat of this year since neither Toyota nor Honda have any significant updates in the works for their mainstream sellers. Meanwhile, Ford is bringing out the new Focus, Hyundai the new Elentra, and the ramping up Chevy Cruze already broke 8,000 units last month. A reinvigorated Chrysler is posting gains with the new Grand Cherokee and looks to have a more promising 2011 with the refreshed Charger, Journey, Grand Caravan, et al. I'm betting on a return to fourth place in the US market next year.
The story for 2011: the return of the Big Three, and the continued emergence of Hyundai as a major player.
Toyota and Honda have seem to have lost that Quality/Reliable edge over the domestics. Years ago there was a big difference in Quality with a company like Honda over a Domestic like Ford. That is not the case now.
I predict that Ford will continue to improve. Hyundai will do well, Chrysler is improving and when GM finishes with its restructuring will gain a lot a ground.
Even now GM Profit profit margins would be greatly improved with out all those discounted Pontiac/Saturn products they where trying to move in the old days.
It might have lost market share but there isn't any dead weight in there line up today
As for Honda/Toyota they will rebound but I think the glory days are over for those two
I see the trend continuing for some time too. Hyundai, Ford, GM and Chrysler have picked up a lot of momentum over the past few years and it takes quite a bit of effort to change those trends. Toyota/Honda is going to have a hard time over the next several years.
Honda hasn't suffered in the quality area like Toyota has. But Honda is definitely lacking in interesting vehicles. It will hurt them as others move faster with fun, new designs. Honda used to be reliable, fuel efficient, and fun. They are still reliable, but not fun, and only mediocre with efficiency.
Hyundai is on the best trajectory. But I worry that their rapid expansion will cause a quality hiccup that would kill them where Toyota is just wounded.
Chrysler needs way more than an improved Grand Cherokee and Ram truck. Their car refreshes are promising - but who wants to take the risk and jump on them right after they hit the market?
Ford will do well. If they can fix Lincoln they will be well on their way to being a true leader again.
Honda gets new core cars starting in 2011 with the Civic and 2012 with the Accord, and it has promised new engine technology, so we'll see - they are Honda's market share in the US. Honda's non-core cars over the past 5 years however have all been sales misses and that trend doen't look to change any time soon. The Crosstour, Insight, CR-Z, Ridgeline, and now discontinued Element have all missed their goals by about 50%, which is huge.
Honda also is stingy with rebates and discounts, meaning other makes have been more attractive to budget-conscious buyers over the past two years, and that has hurt sales, sine the competition is offering better bang for the buck. The bigger issue for Honda is that people don't cross shop the brand as much as they used to - people are looking at makes like Ford and Hyundai now instead. Other than owner loyalty, which Honda still has the highest percentage for, there's not much bringing people into Honda showrooms.
Is your data for retail sales or total sales? Any comparison should be made on retail sales, as that is where the profits are. GM, Ford and Chrysler are all bouyed by fleet sales, though they are an ever decreasing percentage of their total sales. I only say this as retail is where it's important in terms of profit.
I do agree that the general trend is going to be a move away from Honda and Toyota products towards ones from GM, Ford and Hyundai at least over the next few years. The Honda and Toyota lines are rather stale and in the case of Honda they seem to be lost in terms of what direction they want to take the company. Contrast this with GM, Ford and Hyundai who have greatly revamped product lines and are garnering a lot of positive press.
The auto industry has turned up on end the last few years. From 2005-2008, Toyota and Honda were unstoppable in sales and gained significant Market share auto Europe while each of the Big Three saw declines. However, since 2008, Ford has seen an increase that has defied industry trends. While GM and Chrysler sales were hurt during bankruptcy in 2009, Chrysler will post a gain in share this year and GM appears to be stabilizing at 19%. A hungry Hyundai has also posted significant gains since 2008, jumping from 5% to 7.2%. Toyota and Honda, on the other hand, will record declines in market share for 2010 despite an overall rising trend in the market.
The shift is illustrated again (above) in the bread-and-butter midsize sedan segment (anyone that wants to look up Nissans numbers, post them here and I'll add a new graph). Both Camry and Accord saw peak sales in 2007 with significant declines in following years. Meanwhile, its Ford, Hyundai, and Chevy competitors experienced overall stable sales throughout the recession and have seen significant increases since 2009.
So why are Toyota and Honda down in an up market?
In Toyota's case, it's a combination of factors. Recalls, decontented product, decline in quality, and declining loyalty have been the story for 2009. But another factor I believe is the fact that Toyota is letting their big name sellers like the Camry and Corolla languish. The Camry's last major redesign was 2006, and the Corolla's last significant redesign was 2003 (the 2009 & 2010 mild refreshes were cosmetic only). The Avalon and Scions have seen similar lackluster product updates. Toyota has poured resources into releasing multiple hybrid versions of cars that simply aren't selling; the Lexus HS hybrid will sell 10,000 this year if it is lucky.
Honda is mostly an issue with stale product and underwhelming new releases. I'd also say much of it is with Honda's trend toward strange design. Why else did the Accord's 2008 refresh not register with consumers? Recent Honda duds include the Crosstour, Insight, and CR-Z...while once decent sellers such as the Ridgeline and Element are also petering out.
Next year should be a repeat of this year since neither Toyota nor Honda have any significant updates in the works for their mainstream sellers. Meanwhile, Ford is bringing out the new Focus, Hyundai the new Elentra, and the ramping up Chevy Cruze already broke 8,000 units last month. A reinvigorated Chrysler is posting gains with the new Grand Cherokee and looks to have a more promising 2011 with the refreshed Charger, Journey, Grand Caravan, et al. I'm betting on a return to fourth place in the US market next year.
The story for 2011: the return of the Big Three, and the continued emergence of Hyundai as a major player.
The big 3 have become competitive again with their products and it is reflected in sales.
Toyota's quest to take down GM as the top automaker in the world caused them to sacrafice some quality. Their biggest competitive advantage was their quality, since their cars were good, but neither styling or driving standouts. Losing the quality edge makes them very average in the marketplace.
Honda's biggest competitive advantage, beyond quality, was always technological advancement in powertrains. They used to lead the way in smaller, powerful, efficient engines using advanced technologies and designs in their engines. However, the days when they were new to the scene with things like variable valve timing are gone. Domestics are beating them in this area now, with more widespread use of direct injection. Toyota trumped them in hybrids. Honda no longer has an edge in superior fuel mileage or engineering in general. Their vehicles are sportier to drive which helps, but IMO, they are also not as high quality as the domestics (comparing my fiancee's current generation Accord to current domestic midsize players). They are now, also, average in the marketplace.
The white elephant in the room is Hyundai (and to a lesser extent, Kia). The big 3 have stabalized their marketshare slides for the most part, showing a little gain. The Japanese big 3 have lost some market share. However, Hyundai and Kia are the actual big winners. They are the ones that are agressively taking market share, and they continue to barage the marketplace with very impressive new offerings, which are very cost competitive and come with superior warranties.
What I see is a convergence, of the brands all settling in for close to an equal share of the marketplace. This suggests to me a significant reduction in the perception that people have that one brand is better than the others, or that country of origin is a significant factor in car choice.
People with a strong preference for either American or Japanese are beginning to abandon that bias, and concede that there is more equality in the choices. Furthermore, they are willing to consider that the Korean player is capable of marketing a competitive car.
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