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If HSR ever comes to America, look for airlines to start dropping some short haul less profitable flights.
Most short haul flights are very profitable, and HSR will only replace a few air routes out of hundreds. Of the six most popular air routes in the country, 3 are short haul,
MAP
3.38 LAX SFO short haul 338 miles
2.50 ATL MCO short haul 405 miles
2.34 LAS LAX short haul 237 miles
3.06 JFK LAX
2.64 ORD LGA 732 miles
2.36 LAX ORD
HSR is very expensive. The biggest new HSR route in the West is Paris to Barcelona (6.5 hours) twice a day. It replaces the popular overnight train hotel.
The air route is 534 miles, and is much faster and cheaper. If you want to travel between these cities on the cheap, you take public transport to and from the airports and you fly (you don't take the train).
Most short haul flights are very profitable, and HSR will only replace a few air routes out of hundreds. Of the six most popular air routes in the country, 3 are short haul,
MAP
3.38 LAX SFO short haul 338 miles
2.50 ATL MCO short haul 405 miles
2.34 LAS LAX short haul 237 miles
3.06 JFK LAX
2.64 ORD LGA 732 miles
2.36 LAX ORD
HSR is very expensive. The biggest new HSR route in the West is Paris to Barcelona (6.5 hours) twice a day. It replaces the popular overnight train hotel.
The air route is 534 miles, and is much faster and cheaper. If you want to travel between these cities on the cheap, you take public transport to and from the airports and you fly (you don't take the train).
Perhaps HSR is faster in some situations. By the time you get to the airport, through security and cleared for takeoff, the train could be halfway there. But that is a subject for another thread.
USA domestic airline for most recent month: Seats per day
804,575 "Less Than 500 Miles per segment
773,015 "500-999 Miles per segment
722,424 "1000- Miles or greater per segment
In 2013, Southwest's average passenger airfare was $154.72 one way, and the average passenger trip length was approximately 966 miles.
Southwest's average aircraft segment length is 708 miles with an average duration of one hour and 59 minutes.
The shortest daily Southwest flight is between Austin (AUS) and Houston Hobby (HOU) (148 miles).
The longest daily Southwest flight is between Baltimore-Washington (BWI) and Seattle (SEA) (2,335 miles).
Some people (myself included) have suggested that it is a poor use of America's runways to fly so many short haul flights. Some other means of transport (luxury buses, blimps, high speed rail, low speed rail) would be better suited to the pocketbook and the environment. Can you envision those proportions radically changing in the next 20 years.
My local airport has two routes under 60 miles as connectors to hub airports. United replaced their flight with a bus that runs three times per day, but USAir still flies up to 5 times per day so as to gain competitive edge over United. In some cases it is the same or even less money to leave from the local airport and fly 55 miles to connect then to drive to the major airport and simply board there.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 09-28-2014 at 08:51 AM..
Location: "Silicon Valley" (part of San Francisco Bay Area, California, USA)
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I think the future of civilian airliners is electric ducted fans of some type powered by a battery or fuel cell. They will all be VTOL, also (allows many more airliners per airport).
USA domestic airline for most recent month: Seats per day
804,575 "Less Than 500 Miles per segment
773,015 "500-999 Miles per segment
722,424 "1000- Miles or greater per segment
Breaking down my previous post a little bit more:
Seats/day
300,039 “255 miles or less
601,594 “397 miles or less
804,575 “499 miles or less
An Amtrak Acela Express has 304 seats per 8 car trainset. So the ultra short haul flights or 255 miles or less would take a thousand trainsets to create the same number of seats. Currently Amtrak owns 20 Acela trainsets.
I am just trying to point out the magnitude at which the public transit system would have to change to even severely reduce short haul flights.
Keep in Mind, ATL-MCO most of them are connecting passengers,
I live in Atlanta, Most will drive to Orlando with there families. Its about a 7hour Drive. Cost and time wise you can almost drive from Altanta to Orlando in the Total Time it take to fly Home to Destination . The cost to fly 4 people to MCO, when you compare it to driving, Driving wins.
The cost to fly 4 people to MCO, when you compare it to driving, Driving wins.
With 4 people, driving almost always beats the cost of mass transit when you are talking about less than 12 hours. Longer and you incur more food costs and more than likely lodging (unless you have several people who can drive and are able to sleep in a moving automobile).
Given the number of nonstop flights to Orlando, and in particular the number of Delta nonstops, you wouldn't think that there would be that big of a need for transfers.
To Orlando Delta Air Lines Atlanta, Boston, Cincinnati, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Minneapolis/St. Paul, New York–JFK, New York–LaGuardia, Salt Lake City
Seasonal: Cancún, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Memphis, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh
Delta Connection Raleigh/Durham
Seasonal: Austin, Birmingham (AL), Columbus (OH), Grand Rapids, Hartford, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Louisville, Nashville, Memphis (begins October 1, 2014; ends November 1, 2014), New York–LaGuardia, Norfolk, Omaha, Pittsburgh, Richmond, San Antonio, White Plains
====================
But with regard to the OP's question, I think that the big change in the current model of commercial aviation with regard to short haul flights is not to eliminate them, but more than likely to introduce semi standing room saddle seats.
Hot air or hydrogen(since helium is also in short supply)filled blimps with the same power source turning propellers?
Some people will still throw a hissy fit over the whole, Hindenburg thing, but sooner or later people are going to have to squash that.
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