Over 80% of domestic passenger seats are on 12 planes (jet, Boeing, FAA)

[PacoMartin]

Over 80% of domestic passenger seats are on 12 planes. The categories are defined by the FAA and the value in the parenthesis is the average number of seats.

Not surprisingly the top two models are the ones flown by Southwest airlines. Perhaps a little more surprising is that 4 of the top 12 planes are used by regional airlines which are limited by pilot contracts to a maximum of 76 seats.

Not surprising , many of these models are out or going out of production

1. 15.9% ( 142 ) Boeing 737-700/700LR/Max 7 15.9% one unfilled order for -700
2. 15.4% ( 165 ) Boeing 737-800 31.3% less than 300 unfilled orders
3. 10.3% ( 159 ) Airbus Industrie A320-100/200 41.6% 160 unfilled orders
4. 7.5% ( 188 ) Airbus Industrie A321 49.1% 156 unfilled orders
5. 5.6% ( 133 ) Airbus Industrie A319 54.6% 15 unfilled orders
6. 4.9% ( 76 ) Embraer ERJ-175 59.6% 92 unfilled orders
7. 4.8% ( 148 ) McDonnell Douglas DC9 Super 80/MD81/82/83/88 64.4% zero unfilled orders
8. 3.8% ( 76 ) Canadair CRJ 900 68.2% 24 unfilled orders
9. 3.6% ( 179 ) Boeing 737-900 71.8% zero unfilled orders
10. 3.4% ( 50 ) Canadair RJ-200ER /RJ-440 75.2% zero unfilled orders
11. 3.4% ( 179 ) Boeing 737-900ER 78.6% 55 unfilled orders
12. 3.4% ( 68 ) Canadair RJ-700 82.0% 8 unfilled orders

What do you see this list looking like in 20 years? Will we still have regional aircraft limited to 76 seats? Will we see more single aisle jets with over 200 seats? Will we see dual aisle jets like the proposed Boeing NMA with 220 seats in the smaller version?

As USA air passengers will surpass a billion people this year I am not sure if we can continue to support the runway growth required for such small planes. The average number of seats collectively for these top 12 models is 125 seats.


The pilot contract limiting the maximum seats on a regional aircraft to 76 seats has been in place for several years now. The manufacturers like Embraer and Bombardier can obviously make much larger aircraft today.

On the other hand, the economics of dual aisle jets for domestic travel seem unwieldy. They simply burn more fuel on a per seat basis, and the initial procurement cost is still very high. Boeing seems to think that they can build a relatively cheap dual aisle jet, but I have my doubts. As of right now Airbus is not even trying to build a cheap dual aisle jet.

Airplane 2018 Price $ in millions average
737 MAX 7 $96.0
737 MAX 8 $117.1
737 MAX 200 $120.2
737 MAX 9 $124.1
737 MAX 10 $129.9
767-300ER $209.8 (phantom price as this plane is not in production)
787-8 $239.0
787-9 $281.6
787-10 $325.8
777-8 $394.9
777-9 $425.8

2018 AVERAGE LIST PRICES* (USD millions)
A319neo $101.5 almost zero orders for this plane
A320neo $110.6
A321neo $129.5
A330-800 (neo) $259.9 zero orders for this plane
A330-900 (neo) $296.4
A350-800 $280.6 zero orders for this plane
A350-900 $317.4
A350-1000 $366.5

[bus man]

To my way of thinking, it's more accurate to say that 38.3% of all domestic seats are on 737s and another 23.4% of them are on A-319/320/321 planes. Because, let's face it, as far as the public is concerned, the difference between an A-319 and an A-320 is pretty much the difference between a Camry LE and a Camry DX. In other words, they're pretty much the same thing. Looking at it in this way, over 60% of the nation's domestic air travel is accommodated on just two different types of aircraft, both of which are very similar to each other from a passenger's perspective. Bringing this idea to its logical conclusion, one can say that close to two-thirds of our domestic air travel is carried on just one type of plane: a twin-engine, single-aisle aircraft with six-abreast seating.

I sure do hope that Boeing can figure out a way to make a twin-aisle plane cost effective for domestic service. Maybe then some small modicum of passenger comfort could return to the domestic skies.

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by bus man

Bringing this idea to its logical conclusion, one can say that close to two-thirds of our domestic air travel is carried on just one type of plane: a twin-engine, single-aisle aircraft with six-abreast seating.

That's probably accurate. I don't see this fact changing very much as alternatives seem stuck.

ENLARGE REGIONAL JETS

But the Bombardier CS100 returns to the older 2-3 seating, but with only 125 total seats. By simply reducing the percentage of middle seats from 1/3 to 1/5 it would mean much more comfortable flying.

The problem is that the airlines seem determined to push more people to planes with at least 175 seats (Southwest new configuration) and have very limited orders for 143 seats. Scope clauses in pilot's contract limit regional airlines limit the planes they can fly to a maximum of 76 seats.

Manufacturers like Bombardier and Embraer don't particularly want to build 76 seat planes anymore, but they can't completely ignore the US market.

INTRODUCE SHORT HAUL DUAL AISLE JETS

When AIRBUS introduced the dual aisle two engine jet in the 1970s, the A300, it didn't sell very well in Europe. Of the 561 built, Asian airlines bought 33%, Northern American airlines bought 32%, and European airlines bought 18%.

AIRBUS responded to European Airline concerns with the A310, seven of which are still flown by Air Transat in Canada with 250 seats. The A310 was the original New Midsize Airplane, and while it sold much better in Europe, overall sales were very poor in Asia and Northern America.

Finally AIRBUS had to acknowledge that the greater fuel efficiency of the single aisle jet with 3-3 seating would was the way to go, and they began the A320 program.

In March of this year AIRBUS delivered the 8,000th A320 family jet, while Boeing delivered the 10,000th B737 family jet. However Boeing was ahead 1970 B737s to 174 A320s in the year 1990 given that they began manufacturing them twenty years earlier.

So it is not clear that a New Midsize Airplane is going to sell any better than it did forty years ago. The AIRBUS CEO doesn't think it will and he states repeatedly that Boeing has overestimated the size of this market.

Of course, Boeing can point out that AIRBUS grossly overestimated the market for very large aircraft (the A380) and for short runway jets (the A318 or the Baby Bus). AIRBUS also developed two variants, the A330neo-800 and the A350-800 which they had to kill because they have no orders. They also have almost no orders for the A319neo.