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Boeing has announced that they believe they can sell 4000 new midsize airplanes (NMA). The rough design is that it will be a twin aisle jet with a 5000 nmi range (a little less than a 1/4 turn of the globe) that seats 250 in a multi class configuration. Deliveries will be in about 7 years.
The primary competition is the upcoming A321LR which will be delivered starting in 2019. The A321LR will have a still air range of 4000 nmi and will have a seating of roughly 206 in a multi class configuration. CEO of Airbus feels that they can sell 1000 units of this plane.
Presumably the NMA will be considerably cheaper than the Dreamliner 787-8 with an exit limit 381 seats but normal seating of 242 : 24J @85" + 218Y @32" with a range at typical seating of 7,355 nmi.
Does this kind of sales projection make sense? Airbus has delivered fewer than 3000 widebody aircraft in their history.
Personally, I believe that no airlines begins buying widebody aircraft because it needs the range. Once they begin investing in widebodies they may choose to use them on some shorter routes where they need extra capacity. But an airline never invests in a widebody just for capacity. It is always cheaper to fly multiple single aisle jets.
But a limited range of 5000 nmi for the NMA has not been seen since the earliest years of widebody planes.
Quote:
B747-100 Maximum Range 4,620 nmi (176 delivered: orders in the 1960s)
B767-200 Maximum Range 3,900 nmi (128 delivered)
B767-300 Maximum Range 3,900 nmi (104 delivered)
561 delivered
A300B4-200 Maximum Range 2,900 nmi
A300-600R Maximum Range 4,050 nmi
A310-200 Maximum Range 3,500 nmi
A310-300 Maximum Range 5,150 nmi (255 delivered : honorable mention)
The new A321LR aircraft will easily be able to fly shorter Transatlantic routes which are often flown by the B757 today. The 5000 nmi will not be sufficient for most West Coast USA to Europe routes, and certainly won't be long enough for Latin American trans-oceanic routes.
Asia will probably buy the bulk of the next generation of aircraft. They have shown a willingness to fly large widebody aircraft on short crowded routes in the past. But lately they have simply been buying thousands of narrow body aircraft.
Boeing has been making the bulk of their profits in the last decade on the B777-300ER (839 orders and 758 deliveries).
This plane has a 550 seat exit limit, and a 7370 nmi range and is essentially the largest capacity longest range twin jet in existence. This plane is very profitable because it has no other twin jet competition (until the A350-1000 starts delivery).
If the Boeing NMA end up being priced similar to the B767-300ER (adjusted for 7 years of inflation) I think airlines will seriously consider spending more money for a regular long range widebody, or they will give up the additional seats and 25% longer range and stay with the considerably less expensive A321LR.
Manuf model psgnrs kilometer 2017
Boeing * 737 MAX 7 126 7,100 $90,200
AIRBUS A320neo 150 to 189 6,800 $108,400
Boeing * 737 MAX 8 162 6,800 $110,000
Boeing * 737 MAX 9 180 6,700 $116,600
AIRBUS A321neo 185 to 240 6,800 $127,000
Boeing * 737 MAX 200 200 6,000 $112,900
Boeing * 767-300ER 218 to 350 11,000 $197,100 <-------------
Boeing * 787-8 242 14,500 $224,600
AIRBUS A330-200 246 to 406 13,400 $233,800
The other problem is that Airbus could probably build a A322LR which will close the gap even more.
Bottom line, I don't think the Boeing NMA will be the best selling widebody aircraft in history despite their interview process with 57 airlines.
This table is for US flagged carriers TransAtlantic flights in December 2017. Roughly 40% of transatlantic seats are on the B757 and B767 which are not very large planes nor are the flights very long distances.
I think by the time the B797 is available many of these routes will be being flown by A321neos.
%seats Airplane Type --avg seats -- avg miles-- max miles
5.4% Boeing 757-200 --- 160 --- 3,366 --- 4,052 5.4% Boeing 757 --- 160
10.0% Boeing 767-400/ER --- 243 --- 4,010 --- 5,036
24.8% Boeing 767-300/300ER --- 179 --- 3,378 --- 5,111 34.7% Boeing 767 --- 194 --- ---
25.5% Boeing 777-200ER/200LR/233LR --- 269 --- 4,667 --- 8,433
7.3% Boeing 777-300/300ER/333ER --- 325 --- 4,810 --- 5,699 32.7% Boeing 777 --- 280 --- ---
12.6% Airbus Industrie A330-300 --- 291 --- 4,171 --- 5,677
6.9% Airbus Industrie A330-200 --- 244 --- 4,131 --- 5,844 19.5% Airbus Industrie A330 --- 272 --- ---
Long Ranges 8,433 miles ATL Atlanta, GA --- JNB Johannesburg, South Africa
7,422 miles SFO San Francisco, CA ---- TLV Tel Aviv, Israel
5,844 miles ATL Atlanta, GA --- LOS Lagos, Nigeria
5,699 miles SFO San Francisco, CA ---- FRA Frankfurt, Germany
4,052 miles RDU Raleigh Durham, NC ---- CDG Paris France
Last edited by PacoMartin; 06-23-2018 at 07:57 PM..
This table is for US flagged carriers TransAtlantic flights in December 2017. Roughly 40% of transatlantic seats are on the B757 and B767 which are not very large planes nor are the flights very long distances.
I think by the time the B797 is available many of these routes will be being flown by A321neos.
That has got to be one of the biggest worries in the Boeing executive suite...
At the end of 2013 Airbus had 541 orders for the A321neo. They began marketing the Long Range version in 2014 that would equal the range of the B752 but with only 33,000 lbf thrust using the 81 in PW1100G. The B752 still has the 42,600 lbf PW2000-43. Now Airbus has 1930 orders for the A321neo.
Right now the longest transAtlantic flight on a B752 is the 3,521 nmi flight from RDU -CDG (Raleigh to Paris) on Delta, which should be doable with the long range A321.
The B752 on TransAtlantic routes are flown out of EWR, JFK, PHL, IAD, ORD and RDU and they fly to CDG, KEF, AMS, LIS, MAD, EDI, LHR, MAN.
With Prince Harry and Meghan Markle buying a home in the Cotswalds 50 miles from Birmingham Airport, I am expecting someone to target that airport for vacationers. Shakespeare's birthplace has never been enough to coax a flight, but the chance of running into the royals in a pub might do it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW4me
That has got to be one of the biggest worries in the Boeing executive suite...
I don't think that Boeing has ever been at such a huge disadvantage in a market before. The A321neo has an operating empty weight of 50 tonnes. The B767-300ER/400ER which is the closest existing planes to the goals of the B797 had OEWs of 90 / 104 tonnes. Boeing wants to design the B797 without much storage to try and get the OEW as close to that of A321neo as is possible, but the Asian airlines are accustomed to shipping a lot of cargo.
I think the Airbus executives think they might finally become the dominant manufacturer in a decade.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 06-24-2018 at 02:49 PM..
At the end of 2013 Airbus had 541 orders for the A321neo. They began marketing the Long Range version in 2014 that would equal the range of the B752 but with only 33,000 lbf thrust using the 81 in PW1100G. The B752 still has the 42,600 lbf PW2000-43. Now Airbus has 1930 orders for the A321neo.
Right now the longest transAtlantic flight on a B752 is the 3,521 nmi flight from RDU -CDG (Raleigh to Paris) on Delta, which should be doable with the long range A321.
I don't think that Boeing has ever been at such a huge disadvantage in a marketing area before. The A321neo has an operating empty weight of 50 tonnes. The B767-300ER/400ER which is the closest existing planes to the goals of the B797 had OEWs of 90 / 104 tonnes. Boeing wants to design the B797 without much storage to try and get the OEW as close to that of A321neo as is possible, but the Asian airlines are accustomed to shipping a lot of cargo.
I think the Airbus executives think they might finally become the dominant manufacturer in a decade.
The seven years before the 797s roll off the line gives Airbus lots of time to make further improvements to the A321, and perhaps to build a lighter-weight shorter-range A350.
Boeing executives will regret that they didn't follow my advice to restart 757 production, and build a 767-x.
The seven years before the 797s roll off the line gives Airbus lots of time to make further improvements to the A321, and perhaps to build a lighter-weight shorter-range A350.
Yes, the dreaded A322 that will erode the NMA market even more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW4me
Boeing executives will regret that they didn't follow my advice to restart 757 production, and build a 767-x.
Actually there were a lot of Middle of Market jets in the past. In particular the B763ER shouldn't have been that hard to keep up as they are still making the freighter version.
Yes, the dreaded A322 that will erode the NMA market even more.
Actually there were a lot of Middle of Market jets in the past. In particular the B763ER shouldn't have been that hard to keep up as they are still making the freighter version.
My idea was: at minimum, update the engines and electronics... maybe add some carbon-fiber pieces here and there. For a more serious committment, do a new wing, of carbon fiber -- the same as they're doing with the 777. But Boeing apparently thought the 767 design was old enough that it was time for a new beginning. Maybe that's so, but it didn't seem to factor in the competitive reality of the A321 nibbling away the market from below. I wonder if the A322 will feature bigger wing roots.
Boeing needs a completely new lineup that shares parts commonality and a single type rating.
Design something akin to the 319/320/321 with 130-220 pax seating capability that shares parts and type ratings with their 787 widebody. Make it the same just as the 757/767 shares a type rating. Therefore all pilots can be easily plugged into any airframe and if one airplane goes down you can pull a spare without having to call/delay for new pilots or crew.
If the C series shared a common type with the 320 series it would be game over on the narrowbody side of the house. The only thing the 737 has on the 320 is the ability to climb higher and just a little more efficient.
My idea was: at minimum, update the engines and electronics... maybe add some carbon-fiber pieces here and there. For a more serious committment, do a new wing, of carbon fiber -- the same as they're doing with the 777. But Boeing apparently thought the 767 design was old enough that it was time for a new beginning. Maybe that's so, but it didn't seem to factor in the competitive reality of the A321 nibbling away the market from below. I wonder if the A322 will feature bigger wing roots.
I think sometimes we forget how truly awful sales were for the end stage largest variants of the 757 and 767 and the complete lack of customers in Asia. Indeed the -400ER had no sales to any foreign markets. All 38+55=93 of these aircraft are still operating. The dates below were first order dates not delivery dates.
38 767-400ER
Jun 10, 1997 21 Delta Air Lines (USA)
Oct 10, 1997 16 Continental Airlines (USA)
Dec 22, 2008 1 Business Jet / VIP Customer(s) (USA)
55 757-300
Mar 10, 1999 13 Condor (Germany)
Jan 31, 2000 2 Arkia Israeli Airlines (Israel)
Apr 24, 2001 2 Thomas Cook Airlines (United Kingdom)
Aug 4, 2001 12 ATA Airlines, Inc. (USA)
Dec 20, 2001 9 United Airlines (USA)
Mar 18, 2002 1 Icelandair (Iceland)
Jul 20, 2002 16 Northwest/Delta Airlines (USA)
It's only now, 16 years after 9-11 with the domestic airlines struggling to replace these ancient fleets of B757/B767s that the B752 and B763ER looks attractive. Sales of the A321neo have been roaring.
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