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The video doesn't really say much about the Russians, but they are interesting in that, due to the sanctions, they are developing everything by themselves now, including engines end electronics. They can soon offer a competitive commercial plane (such as the Irkut MC 21) basically without buying Western components, i.e. 95% Russian technology.
They are also partnering with China on several aviation projects, for instance new engines.
As for China, they repeat their old strategy. First buying leading components and partnering in order to learn and catch up, then they do their own thing. (Like Huawei making their own smartphone processors now.) Their huge number of super computers comes in handy I suppose. The accusation made in the video that China is doing it wrong because state-run companies suck, is wishful thinking on the part of the West.
Well, I guess it could be worse, instead of a duopoly it could be just one behemoth company and a monopoly!
I think competition is great, but it's going to take tens of billions or even hundreds of billions to get a part of the pie that Boeing and Airbus currently have with large commercial aircraft manufacturing.
Yes, developing a plane is expensive. But I think the right strategy based on analyzing the future market requirements is key. That way one can develop and build only a single plane initially and yet sell a huge number of it. The profits can then be used to develop variants or a new plane.
Airbus' strategy for instance was kind of flawed, the A380 was a failure. Luckily they are selling planes of all kinds of sizes so one failure doesn't matter that much. And they might have gained a lot of know-how from developing that giant. But for a new competitor the wrong strategy can be fatal.
As for China, they repeat their old strategy. First buying leading components and partnering in order to learn and catch up, then they do their own thing. (Like Huawei making their own smartphone processors now.) Their huge number of super computers comes in handy I suppose. The accusation made in the video that China is doing it wrong because state-run companies suck, is wishful thinking on the part of the West.
The specifications on the COMAC C919 are only a little weaker than the B737-Max 7. Considering how poor orders are for theMax 7 and the A319neo, it is not surprising that orders for the COMAC C919 are almost nonexistent outside of China.
I wonder if the MAX8 troubles will create an opening for the COMAC C919? I could see it going both ways. The only real reason I could see an opening is that if airlines abandon Boeing en-masse, then Airbus will have trouble filling orders.
COMAC C919
Seats 158 (2-class) /168 (1-class)
Length 127.6 ft
Wingspan 117.5 ft
Height 39.2 ft
MTOW 159,835 lb
Maximum payload 45,000 lb
Maximum fuel 43,122 lb
Empty weight 92,815 lb
Turbofan (2x) CFM International LEAP-1C
Thrust per engine 31,000 lbf
Cruise Mach 0.785
Range 3,000 nm
Boeing 737 MAX 7
Seating 153 (8J + 145Y) to 172 max
Length 116 ft 8 in
Wingspan 117 ft 10 in
Overall height 40 ft 4 in
MTOW 177,000 lb
Maximum Payload 46,040 lb
OEW 99,360 lb
Fuel capacity 45,694 lb
Engine (× 2) CFM International LEAP-1B
Cruising speed Mach 0.79
Range 3,850 nmi
Given the size of the Chinese market, namely the biggest in the world, Comac could still do fine even if hardly anyone abroad buys it. And I suppose they learned a whole lot in the process of developing their first commercial plane of that size.
I think Comac as well as Irkut suffer from mere distrust initially. I assume many airlines are waiting and watching how those planes fare, if there are accidents etc. in China and Russia. If they turn out reliable, orders from the rest of the world will pick up.
Yes, I agree that Airbus would not be able to handle lots of canceled Boeing orders, both companies already have a huge backlog. Similar to train makers, by the way.
That problem would also apply to Comac and Irkut, they are probably happy they are not overrun by clients. They can't simply build giant factories and hire zillions of workers in the hope of increasing sales. They have to grow gradually.
Yes, I agree that Airbus would not be able to handle lots of canceled Boeing orders, both companies already have a huge backlog.
Airbus has about 5000 unfilled orders for the A320neo family. They delivered 385 jets last year, and received over 170 more orders than they delivered. I think they will have to to do some remarkable things just to keep pace with their own orders.
My guess is they would try to increase production to take care of these five orders for 353 jets if they leave Boeing. They are all European, and all of the companies are Airlines as opposed to leasing companies. But there is no way they could fill Boeing's orders in Africa, Asia, North and Latin America, plus the leasing companies.
Ireland
135 Ryanair
United Kingdom
72 TUI Travel PLC
Iceland
16 Icelandair
Norway
110 Norwegian Air Shuttle
Spain
20 Southwest Airlines
COMAC may find a market in Indonesia and Southeastern Asia.
I was working OPS back in the early 90's on A320's before Airbus had the software sorted and I knew of a few episodes that would have been as fatal as the Maxes the public and even most pilots never knew about. A few A320's did drill it into the dirt tripped up by not knowing every quirk built into the algorithms. A nasty one was one pilot disconnecting the autopilot while the PNF (pilot not flying) left his on. If you put a target into the system 100ft underground it would take you there. The airline I worked at finally went with all the magic on normally and all the "magic" off below 10,000ft on approach.....
Boeings problem with the Maxes is assuming all the pilots around the world would know what to do with a runaway stab and a few had the problem and got out of it in the USA. A 28 year old Captn and a 200 hour copilot didn't. Pilots were used to stab trim going off with autopilot disconnect, leaving it hooked up with a mind of its own in the Max is obviously a mistake. Boeing will solve it.
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