can you belive how the dodgers blew it last night!? (pitchers, playoffs)

[califas31]

For a while I thought they'd be alright this year, but day by day, it's not their year....kemp is playing bad, martin hasn't had a good year since his rookie season..the only one that is doing decent is lonely and ethier..kershaw too ..P.S. I'm a huggeee Dodger fan.

[filihok]

I'd say that we actually blew this one the night before last.

Torre brought in Broxton for 4 outs with a 9 to 4 lead where he threw 19 pitches. In a game where we had about a 98% chance of winning no matter who pitched

http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20100627_Yankees_Dodgers_0.png (broken link)

Then, Torre brings him in again with a 4 run lead in a game where we again had a 98% chance of winning, and he blows it, throwing 48 pitches

http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20100626_Yankees_Dodgers_0.png (broken link)

Broxton to the DL in 3...2...

Now, we don't have Broxton for probably the next two to three days. Torre is not a good tactician.

[CHIP72]

The Dodgers haven't been as good as they were in 2009, but the key thing is they are still in the hunt. If they get on a hot streak, they could easily catch or pass San Diego in the standings (of course, the same is true with San Francisco and Colorado too). The Dodgers aren't in a position like expected contenders the Cubs and Milwaukee, who currently are in some pretty deep doo-doo.

I think with baseball the first 4 to 5 months of the season is all about staying in contention for the playoffs, and the last 1 to 2 months is about making the push to reach the playoffs.

[Lancet71]

I'm a diehard Yankee fan and Torre is infamous for abusing relief pitchers. This should have been a situation where someone else pitched. The closer only should have come in if it was within 3 runs or he hadn't had work for a few days. Troncoso should have been in. Then he lets the guy pitch about 50 pitches. How do you think that will affect him? Great comeback by my Yankees too! I noticed alot of arguments on good calls at the end of the game. What were they thinking? With 2 strikes, you have to protect the plate. I guess they don't know the strike zone.

[Statz2k10]

I was very upset. I'm a huge Dodgers fan as well. Outside of Broxton, Kuo and Weaver the Dodgers bullpen is weak. Sherril needs to go. Troncoso isn't doing so hot either and I think last season Belisario was a 1 year wonder.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by Statz2k10

I was very upset. I'm a huge Dodgers fan as well. Outside of Broxton, Kuo and Weaver the Dodgers bullpen is weak. Sherril needs to go. Troncoso isn't doing so hot either and I think last season Belisario was a 1 year wonder.

Troncoso is a bit strange.

his 2008 was way out of line with his minor league numbers.

2007 AA: K/9=6.75, FIP=3.55
2008 AAA: K/9=5.28, FIP=4.31
2008 MLB: K/9=9, FIP=3.00

Not a lot of guys strike out more guys in the majors than the minors

His 2009 was more what one would expect base on his minor league numbers. Torre also used the hell out of him
2009: K/9=5.99, BB/9=3.70, HR/9=0.33, FIP=3.58, GB%=50%
2010: K/9=6.00, BB/9=3.00, HR/9=1.64, FIP=5.44, GB%=55%

He's striking out the same as he was last year, walking less, getting more ground balls, but giving up a ton more home runs. HR/9 is usually around 1.00, maybe a little less for GB pitchers like Troncoso. So, he was lucky (or really good) with HR in 2009, and the opposite in 2010.

2009: xFIP=4.22
2010: xFIP=4.56

xFIP normalizes HR rates based on fly ball rates. He's about the same pitcher this year as last.

He's lost some velocity (Thank's Joe?), as you can see in this graph
http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/4685_P_1_20100624.png (broken link)
so that could be part of it.

As is often the case, he wasn't as good as he looked in 2009 and not as bad as he looks in 2010.

Belasario, same deal
2007 (AA): K/9=7.66, BB/9=5.11
2008 (AA): K/9=5.68, BB/9=3.95

2009: K/9=8.15, BB/9=3.69, HR/9=.51, xFIP=3.80
2010: K/9=6.61, BB/9=3.73, HR/9=.57, xFIP=3.82

So his K rate in 2009 was better than it 'should' have been given his minor league numbers. 2010 is closer to what you'd expect.

Also,

2009: ERA=2.04, Runners Stranded=81.1%
2010: ERA=4.01, Runners Stranded=68.1%

Runners Stranded for all pitchers tends to be about 72%.

So, in 2009 he got lucky keeping runners on base and not scoring, hence the low ERA. In 2010 he's not so lucky and more runners are scoring that would be predicted.

He's also throwing slower than last year, though his velocity has been gradually increasing. He had his visa issues in spring training so that might have something to do with it.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/2203_P_1_20100622.png (broken link)

[filihok]

Sweated that 9th inning as well

[twista6002]

Oh please. You don't know anything about misery and heartbreak.

Signed,
A Philadelphia fan