Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon to the Rays.... (pitchers, playoffs, pitcher)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
In 2010 Manny hit:
.298 BA, 265 AB, 79 hits, 16 2B, 0 3B, 9 HR, 1 SB, .409 OBP, .460 SLG, 1.6 WAR.
But, manny lost .5 WAR for defense. As a DH he won't have that problem. So put Manny down for 2.1 WAR
If Manny does exactly what he did last year, the Rays should pick up about 3 wins.
Per 600 PA's that comes to
Manny: 497 AB, 148 hits, 30 2B, 0 3B, 17 HR, 2 SB, .298 BA, .409 OBP, .460 SLG, 349 outs, 3.9 WAR
RaysDH: 523 AB, 125 hits, 30 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR, 7 SB, .238 BA, .322 OBP, .391 SLG, 398 outs, -.7 WAR
So Manny would have had 23 more hits, with about equal numbers of 2B, 3B, and HR while making 50 less outs.
That's a gain of more than 4.5 WAR
It is almost certain that Manny will provide more offense than what the Rays' DHs did last year.
Damon is still a quality player who will get some time in LF, DH and maybe even 1B
He'll help to make up for the losses of Pena and Crawford
I think one thing it will help is attendance. Whether you hate Ramirez or love him, he's still one who people like to watch hit. A lot of people visiting Tampa will make a trip to the game just because Damon and Ramirez are now on that team.
Damon still has some left in the tank but who knows if Manny can still play an injury free full season even as a DH, but it should help attendance alot. I think you're looking at a team that will produce simliar to last year minus the stolen bases or the threat of stolen bases which we know effects pitchers.
[snipped math and data and stuff. It is available by clicking the links]
A typical Stealer is on first base for 180-220 plate appearances per season. That corresponds to about 128 outs (for this group), which adds up to 4.75 games. Assuming the improvement due to disruption is 0.17 runs per game, this gives a measly 0.8 runs over the whole season. Let's throw in an extra balk and a half-HBP (I didn't include the HBPs in the OBP calculation for simplicity) and we get an additional 0.5 runs (more or less), for a grand total of about 1.3 extra runs a year.
So, the next time you tune into the White Sox game and Hawk Harrelson is telling you that "Scotty" Podsednik, by virtue of his ability to disrupt the pitcher, is worth more than what his statistics show, well you now know he's telling you the truth. Podsednik is worth a little over one more run per season.
I tried re-doing the analysis using the Top 20 Stealers over the last three years (instead of the Top 10) to increase the sample size. The result I found is a little more stringent: the 3.2 runs per season number goes to about two runs per season.
So, instead of saying that Podsednik adds a little over one run per season due to his "disruptive" powers, we must content ourselves with saying that he very likely adds no more than two runs per season.
Here's the problem. You CANNOT put in an average for a season. If the Yankees play Boston 16 times a year and because of base stealers like Ellsbury they throw the pitcher off in half those games(lets say 1-2 runs) that affects potential playoffs. So yes, certain games are more important than others. So the average over 162 games might show less than 1 run a game but if the Yankees or Sox play Oakland that game probably doesn't weigh as heavily as a division game. So even though Damon still is capable of stealing a base, Crawford is a much bigger threat and because of that can disrupt a division race especially when it comes to top tier teams duking it out.
Here's the problem. You CANNOT put in an average for a season. If the Yankees play Boston 16 times a year and because of base stealers like Ellsbury they throw the pitcher off in half those games(lets say 1-2 runs) that affects potential playoffs. So yes, certain games are more important than others. So the average over 162 games might show less than 1 run a game but if the Yankees or Sox play Oakland that game probably doesn't weigh as heavily as a division game. So even though Damon still is capable of stealing a base, Crawford is a much bigger threat and because of that can disrupt a division race especially when it comes to top tier teams duking it out.
You know, you're right.
He used a bunch of statistics and analysis, and you used ALL CAPS.
Game. Set. Match.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
