Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I was reading this article and realized that this may be the end of Ft. McMurray. With the wildfires last year and this, I'm wondering if it'll be a ghost town in a few years. All the major US companies have now pulled out and only Canadian companies are left it seems:
With the overpriced real estate in Vancouver, it seems the only economically viable option is Toronto nowadays. It seems that Alberta bet the farm on oil and they are going to get dinged now.
It is not new. Alberta's unemployment is 8.8%, compared with 6.6% for Canada overall. The bust has already happened.
What does the oil bust have anything to do with Vancouver's real estate? I am sure Vancouver's RE bubble was not driven by oil boom in Alberta.
Toronto is not that expensive. It is the people who failed to accept the fact they would have to settle for smaller space living in such a global city now.
Alberta's economy has always been boom-and-bust, boom-and-bust. Chicken Littles always predict the end of Alberta's economy, and have done so since forever.
Alberta's economy is cyclical. Unlike Ontario, where manufacturing has always been the steady lynchpin, Alberta is a resource-based economy. Alberta rode the wave in the late 70s/early 80s, went down into the early 2000s, resurged, and went down again in the 2010s. Alberta is currently coming back.
Alberta will boom again. Its economy is cyclical, unlike Ontario's. Or, as Chauncey Gardiner once famously said, "The economy is like a garden: first comes fall and winter, then comes spring and summer." Metaphorically, right now, Chauncey Gardiner is correct: Alberta is in winter, but spring and summer will come, and we will again prosper.
Alberta's economy has always been boom-and-bust, boom-and-bust. Chicken Littles always predict the end of Alberta's economy, and have done so since forever.
Alberta's economy is cyclical. Unlike Ontario, where manufacturing has always been the steady lynchpin, Alberta is a resource-based economy. Alberta rode the wave in the late 70s/early 80s, went down into the early 2000s, resurged, and went down again in the 2010s. Alberta is currently coming back.
Alberta will boom again. Its economy is cyclical, unlike Ontario's. Or, as Chauncey Gardiner once famously said, "The economy is like a garden: first comes fall and winter, then comes spring and summer." Metaphorically, right now, Chauncey Gardiner is correct: Alberta is in winter, but spring and summer will come, and we will again prosper.
that is too optimistic for many reasons. If oil price stays low due to structural changes in the oil industry/world economy slow down, or if renewables increasingly replace fossil fuels, Alberta is not going to boom again without some deep reform. Even Saudi Arabia is trying to shift away from a pure resource based economy.
Last edited by botticelli; 03-12-2017 at 01:53 AM..
First of all, I don't see renewables replacing fossil fuels any time soon. I seem to recall a recent report on driving.ca that said Canadians are loath to jump on the electric/hybrid car banner. Ah, here we are:
There are too many Albertans who believe "if it don't run on gas, it's worthless," and they carry that out with their love of snowmobiles, ATVs, and giant pickup trucks.
Now, you may think differently, and that's fine. But know that Albertans disagree with you. Alberta is due for a a boom, and we are all preparing to ride that wave.
We don't listen to Torontonians like you. We listen to Albertans. Deal.
ETA: The days when Ontario and Quebec told us in Alberta what to think and do are over. Now, it's our turn to tell them what they should think and do.
Last edited by ChevySpoons; 03-12-2017 at 01:28 AM..
First of all, I don't see renewables replacing fossil fuels any time soon. I seem to recall a recent report on driving.ca that said Canadians are loath to jump on the electric/hybrid car banner. Ah, here we are:
There are too many Albertans who believe "if it don't run on gas, it's worthless," and they carry that out with their love of snowmobiles, ATVs, and giant pickup trucks.
Now, you may think differently, and that's fine. But know that Albertans disagree with you. Alberta is due for a a boom, and we are all preparing to ride that wave.
We don't listen to Torontonians like you. We listen to Albertans. Deal.
ETA: The days when Ontario and Quebec told us in Alberta what to think and do are over. Now, it's our turn to tell them what they should think and do.
It is up to Albertans to the extent the Alberta produced oil is consumed in Alberta. Unfortunately, almost all the oil is for exporting, which means it is subject to foreign market and international price. so whatever Albertans (or Torontonians for that matter) believe in the future of fossil fuel is completely irrelevant to the issue.
I was not suggesting the fossil fuel era will quickly draw to an end, although many experts hope it would. On the contrary I think it will take a pretty long time. However, Alberta seems to face a double headed enemy: oil price.
High oil price makes tar sand based oil profitable, however, it will drive more investment in renewable and other sources of energy, pushing the prices lower and making oil less attractive. Low oil price, like right now, simply makes Alberta's oil unprofitable because the cost is high.
I don't think the current low oil price will end any time soon. Shale gas/oil in the US is exploding, making the US less and less dependent on Alberta oil (US is its only export market I think). US is actually becoming a net oil exporter. It even changed its long held policy about not exporting crude oil. Economy in China is slowing down rapidly from 10% to 6.5%, and considering China's rise during the past 15 years coincided with high oil prices, that will have big implications. Europe is just Europe, so no matter from a supply and demand perspective, there doesn't seem to be a huge shortage of oil.
On the other hand, Germany is set to phase out fossil fuel completely by 2050. Considering Germany's economic weight, that will send a strong signal to the world that using less oil is possible and doable. China is also investing massively on renewable, hydro as well as nuclear.
And on top of that, there is this increasingly consensus of climate change, carbon tax etc etc., which will all make oil less and less attractive, not very soon, but probably sooner than you think.
I do think high dependences on fossil oil will linger for decades, but first, Alberta is not Saudi Arabia or Iran. Its crude production cost is much higher so it is more fragile facing industry cycles, and second, a highly resource based economy is not ideal to start with. Diversification is not just a pretty word, it matters of everyone living in Alberta. So to boast about Albertan's taking pride in their SUVs and trucks and refusing upcoming changes, that's pretty ignorant about this issue.
The only thing that may save Alberta is improvements in technology that may make oil sands cheaper.
An example is in the US in the state of ND. Around 20 years ago, the fields in North Dakota were known about but they couldn't extract it due to price. Now, they have gotten the price of fracking much cheaper and places in ND, NM, and Western Texas are booming.
Alberta's economy has always been boom-and-bust, boom-and-bust. Chicken Littles always predict the end of Alberta's economy, and have done so since forever.
Alberta's economy is cyclical. Unlike Ontario, where manufacturing has always been the steady lynchpin, Alberta is a resource-based economy. Alberta rode the wave in the late 70s/early 80s, went down into the early 2000s, resurged, and went down again in the 2010s. Alberta is currently coming back.
Alberta will boom again. Its economy is cyclical, unlike Ontario's. Or, as Chauncey Gardiner once famously said, "The economy is like a garden: first comes fall and winter, then comes spring and summer." Metaphorically, right now, Chauncey Gardiner is correct: Alberta is in winter, but spring and summer will come, and we will again prosper.
Ontaio's manufacturing economy has always been cyclical, has been for decades, especially in cities like Windsor, London, St. Catharines and Hamilton. Boom and bust has been a fact of life, especially when Alberta's oil booms make the value of the Canadian Dollar so high it makes manufacturing much less profitable here in the east. This is why the current downturn in Alberta has made manufacturing in Ontario profitable again, and why cities like Windsor now have an unemployment rate of only 5.1%, one of the lowest in the country!
Ontaio's manufacturing economy has always been cyclical, has been for decades, especially in cities like Windsor, London, St. Catharines and Hamilton. Boom and bust has been a fact of life, especially when Alberta's oil booms make the value of the Canadian Dollar so high it makes manufacturing much less profitable here in the east. This is why the current downturn in Alberta has made manufacturing in Ontario profitable again, and why cities like Windsor now have an unemployment rate of only 5.1%, one of the lowest in the country!
5.1 is awesome. I think Windsor had one of the poorest unemployment rates in the country but 5 years ago. It just goes to show how much a low CAD helps it. Same with cities like Toronto and Montreal but to a lesser degree because they are so big and diverse. By default, I think the Canadian dollar is typically lower than the USD so I think the cycles supporting manufacturing are longer than booms out west. I'm not really buying the idea that the CAD is going to be rising closer to parity with the USD anytime soon. We might have experienced literally a once a generation thing during times of parity or near parity.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
