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I did pull the mortgage data on each property for sale in Belle Hall to determine the approximate equity that sellers have in their homes. Unlike others, I do not pull figures and statistics "out of the air" to support my opinions and observations. As most of us cannot predict the future, I can only use current data and not rely upon future speculation.
Please educate us on how/where you can pull the mortgage data and how you determine 'approximate' equity. Is it based on assumptions? Facts? or a combination of both?
Please educate us on how/where you can pull the mortgage data and how you determine 'approximate' equity. Is it based on assumptions? Facts? or a combination of both?
The mls system has the outstanding mortgages on property as well as what the current owner paid for their home. The difference between the original purchase price and the original mortgage and subsequent mortgages taken out on the property would be the equity the current owner has in their property assuming that they were to sell it at the current list price. It is certainly possible that the owners have taken out some home equity lines on their home which would decrease the amount of equity left in the home, so my statistics are not necessarily completely accurate. However , I did not factor in the amount the home owner has paid into principal.
In Joe's defense I think he has built a couple of very valid caveats into his arguments.
Pointing out that the homes with better floor plans and the expected amount of maintenance are doing fine and this whole argument seems to be centerring on a couple of still desirable neighborhoods. If we were talking DR Horton homes on Dorchester Road or miserably flipped ranches languishing in older neighborhoods I would agree things are not rosy.
But for the most part people got into the over $500k neighborhoods legitimately. If they choose to stay out of pride rather than sell for less, most are capable of doing so. People who do not have to sell in this environment simply are not selling even if there is a listing. The people who really need to abandon ship seem to be getting into the lower end of their communities in the bubble market and are not offering homes people want even at bargain prices.
Also- to whomever asked- the reason Mt Pleasant (and the nicer parts of West Ashley, Summerville and James Island) housing costs exceed what one affords on the local salary is that most buyers either have mom/dad kicking in on the downpayment, equity from the 20 years of growth all local homes have seen or they are dual income couples. Another factor is the number of people who are dumping the equity or savings they gained in Atlanta/NC/the northeast into their homes in Charleston.
Certainly the value of an asset is strongly dependent on supply and demand. There are still home buyers in the market, only fewer than there were in the past. Generally if demand drops for an asset, there will be downward pressure on the fair market value of that asset. However, a home is a little different than an asset such as common stock which generally trades each market day and thus the "fair market value" of a particular stock is quickly and directly affected by demand and supply.
When the fundamentals holding up a stock price change - earnings, assets, liabilities, future growth prospects - then the price changes very quickly, almost immediately.
I understand that the real estate market is a different market, more inefficient, and that prices do not go down quickly for a variety of reasons.
However, that doesn't change the fact of the matter that the fundamentals supporting current prices have currently fallen out. You can say, "Well, we don't try to predict the future," but if that were true, home values would be plummeting rapidly to reflect current demand. Clearly, sellers are predicting that buyers will return, I just wonder: where do people expect these new buyers to come from, and when?
I think that sellers will lower price when the number of buyers increase. Until more people look at my home and start giving me offers -- it isn't clear that price is an issue.
I think that sellers will lower price when the number of buyers increase. Until more people look at my home and start giving me offers -- it isn't clear that price is an issue.
Not sure I follow...following your logic, when would they raise price - when buyers decrease? If so, that leads me to believe that sellers will be waiting a long time in this market.
The only way to increase # of buyers in a market is to lower prices until supply = demand. And demand is dependent on a bunch of variables.
I had a realtor tell me this weekend that "We will know when we hit the bottom when prices start to increase." When I reminded her that prices have not yet come close to decreasing relative to pre-bubble artificial appreciation, it was obvious that she didn't consider this factor and doesn't understands basic economics.
The mls system has the outstanding mortgages on property as well as what the current owner paid for their home. The difference between the original purchase price and the original mortgage and subsequent mortgages taken out on the property would be the equity the current owner has in their property assuming that they were to sell it at the current list price. It is certainly possible that the owners have taken out some home equity lines on their home which would decrease the amount of equity left in the home, so my statistics are not necessarily completely accurate. However , I did not factor in the amount the home owner has paid into principal.
You can't not use this supposed 'information' (term used loosely) off the MLS as a substitute for facts because you have to make too many assumptions for it to be remotely useful. This information you use off the MLS is only relevant the day of closing and that's it.
That's like saying one can tell how well off someone is by the size of their home, the number and type of vehicles in the driveway and toys in the garage.
Where do you account for price depreciation in this market? Are you making an assumption that there isn't any here?
I am curious is mortgage data available to the public?
Seems that no one has answered this question directly. I have heard that it is available publicly, but I haven't located it and no one has offered a source.
I am curious is mortgage data available to the public?
Seems that no one has answered this question directly. I have heard that it is available publicly, but I haven't located it and no one has offered a source.
Thanks, Joe replied it can be found on the MLS, but how is this done? ...which MLS site and instructions are appreciated
I live in North Carolina, so my info may not be helpful -
but here, you can find everyone's mortgage, publicly available as a .PDF, from each county's Registrar of Deeds website. (some of the rural counties don't have them available. Urban counties do tend to have them)
In the same place, you can find tons of information - foreclosure notices, birth records, death records, et cetera. Now, keep in mind that the documents themselves can be deliberately obfuscated (good word, btw..) by the various law and real estate establishments. Sometimes they make it intentionally difficult to understand the document. For example, one politically-connected, well-known law firm in Wilmington simply refuses to put the mailing address in the mortgage. They must, however, add some unique identifier that can be used to find the house, and it is typically something like: "Lot 7, Deed 152, Subdivision Devon Park".
*edit: Here's Charleston County's register of deeds. You should be able to research mortgages here. http://www2.charlestoncounty.org/
Last edited by le roi; 12-22-2008 at 01:54 PM..
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