Charlotte's housing market (transplants, sale, foreclosures)

[wasme]

While housing market is pretty bad nationwide, Charlotte's housing market is doing well at least now. What's #1 reason in your mind? And are you a realtor?

[lovesMountains]

Originally Posted by wasme

While housing market is pretty bad nationwide, Charlotte's housing market is doing well at least now. What's #1 reason in your mind? And are you a realtor?

#1 reason for me is that housing appreciation here was slow and steady even when our population was growing by leaps and bounds, therefore we were not overinflated and had no real bubble to burst.

I am not a realtor.

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by wasme

While housing market is pretty bad nationwide, Charlotte's housing market is doing well at least now. What's #1 reason in your mind? And are you a realtor?

Doing "well" is all a matter of perspective.

If two people take a test and one person scored a 15 and the other a 55 (out of 100). You might say the 2nd did "well".

However the point is both grades are F.

That's kind of the scenerio Charlotte metro is in today. And as I've been saying all along, the trend will continue down for several reasons.

1. Major oversupply of inventory: As talked about ad nauseum on this board, look at any price range of homes in the metro region and you'll find new construction and resales just sitting for a long long time. Builders got greedy and overdeveloped. Town Councils and politicians allowed this to happen w/o focusing on the infrastructure to accomodate this. to name a few. Builders have slowed considerably which is a good first step, but the months of inventory out there is astronomical, so it will take a long time for this # to go down.


2. Foreclosures: large amounts of ARM mortgage's resetting will continue through all of 2008. This will bring plenty of negative news about blight in many neighborhoods and builders leaving certain markets (ie Beazer in Charlotte). Attached is a chart which shows the reset schedule for arm's..if someone has a more current chart, it would be appreciated.

ARM Reset*Schedule - Statistics 2007 - bubbleinfo.com (http://www.bubbleinfo.com/statistics-2007/2007/3/15/arm-reset-schedule.html - broken link)



3. Transplant slowdown: Charlotte depends on transplants for their growth, that's a fact. Many people do want to move to this area but can't because they can't sell their primary homes. Thus which leads into 1 of 2 scenerios. Carry two mortgages or let the deal fall through here. The charlotte market will not get better until native transplant markets bottom out which we don't know when that will be.

4. Tightening Standards: Put simply, there are less qualified buyers now then ever before. So many deals are falling through now because potential homebuyers can't get the financing they need.

5. Buyer Psychology: Many buyers today (the ones that are qualfied) are sitting on the sidelines because they suspect "why buy now when I know prices will drop in 3-6 months?". Totally different attitude from 18-24 months ago.



In summary, Charlotte was "late to the party" in terms of a major slowdown, but it is alive and kicking right now. It will not improve until bubble markets bottom out. Until then, there will be major pain for homesellers and builders alike in this region, while buyers w/o any contingencies will reap the benefits.

[brokensky]

Excellent post. Great info. I agree w/ your assessment.

Transplants have fueled the growth . . . and the anticipation of continued growth spurred developers to over-build.

I personally believe there is an underbelly to the housing slowdown that no one is really discussing. Speculators. I think a lot of people who are already here may have overextended by buying more house than they could afford (and got no doc subprime loans).

I have heard people state that they came here and were basically supplementing their lower income by "living off the proceeds" from the sale of their former home in NJ, NY, especially. This means that "extra money" is gonna run out . . . they are now stuck in a house they really could not afford to begin w/. . . and even tho their loan is fixed and not going to re-set . . . they need to sell it.

Their strategy was to come down here, buy a house they thought would quickly appreciate, turn it over, get the proceeds out and have more money to put down on a new house and loan. Now their plans have been scuttled b/c there are no buyers for a house that is like 200 others in the same region - and often w/ prices that have fallen.

So there are more scenarios going on out there than just the subprime adjustable rate mortgages . . . Foreclosures may become more prevalent simply due to overbuying w/ a no doc loan . . . and not being able to pay for that house they thought they would "flip" in a year. People came down here and speculated . . . and now they have no way out.

I am waiting to see how that works itself out - just another scenario that will impact the inventory of houses that are sitting here and will continue to sit for a while.

[wasme]

Originally Posted by lovesMountains

#1 reason for me is that housing appreciation here was slow and steady even when our population was growing by leaps and bounds, therefore we were not overinflated and had no real bubble to burst.

I am not a realtor.

This theory is "popular" in this board, but incorrect. The price increase is not slow at all. Many properties double the price in 3-5 years. The "appreciation" is lower but close to South Florida before South Florida's housing bubble bursted.

[brokensky]

Originally Posted by wasme

This theory is "popular" in this board, but incorrect. The price increase is not slow at all. Many properties double the price in 3-5 years. The "appreciation" is lower but close to South Florida before South Florida's housing bubble bursted.

Are you saying - many properties here in Charlotte have doubled their prices in the last 3-5 year period? The appreciation rate has been closer to 6% for most properties, wh/ I think is a very good rate, but in five years - that is not doubled. ??? I am sorry - I cannot fathom what properties you are talking about. Are you talking about undeveloped land?

[QC Misfit]

Charlotte on average appreciated by about 4.5% last year

[brokensky]

Originally Posted by QC Misfit

Charlotte on average appreciated by about 4.5% last year

Thank you for that stat. I had seen comps for my neighborhood and it was right at 6%. I appreciate your clarifying - I think 4.5 - 6% is wonderful - especially when so many areas have decreased in value in other parts of the country.

But I am still waiting for a clarification from Wasme on what the heck he/she is referring to by saying properties have "doubled." ???? Wasme, where are you - what are you talking about????

[QC Misfit]

has to be some of the areas going through major rejuvenation in downtown.

[brokensky]

Originally Posted by QC Misfit

has to be some of the areas going through major rejuvenation in downtown.

Gotcha. Thanks for the info . . .