Historical Appreciation in Cincinnati? (Euclid, Blue Ash: appointed, for sale, real estate market)

[fiskkm]

My wife and I are planning to move to Cincinnati in 3-5 years. I am a planner and want to ensure we have the money set aside for our home once we are ready. I have a good feel for what is available right now, thanks to sites like sibcycline.com, but I want to estimate 3-5 years out. So, I am looking for some assistance on predicting the average annual appreciation for the following areas:

1) Mariemont
2) Hyde Park
3) Terrace Park
4) Madeira
5) Kenwood

Any assistance is greatly appreciated.

[t45209]

Ha! When I read the title of your post, I thought someone actually wanted to talk about Cincinnati history! How disappointed I was!

However, if you insist on real estate prices, I'm sure that someone will be willing to quote facts and figures. From a general standpoint, I'd say all of the neighborhoods that you list, other than Kenwood, are rather overpriced, or perhaps it's better to say, you don't get much for your money, unless you spend a lot of money. For the most part, all of these neighborhoods are a good store of value, but I think that going forward if you are trying to make a big profit on your primary residence, I'd say you are wasting your time.

Personally, I've seen a lot of situations in the past few months with people trying to sell houses in these neighborhoods and others (like Walnut Hills and Clifton) who paid just a bit too much for a house 3-5 years ago and not being able to recover their investment. Fortunately, the Cincinnati real estate market did not superheat like some parts of the country, but I think we've hit a plateau, and you can better bet that unless your house is something exceptional, prices are going to be fairly flat for the foreseable future.

[fiskkm]

t45209,

Well, I do have an appreciation for the history of Cincinnati, which is why I want to live there! But, my questions about the growth in housing costs are more pressing than anything I have about street cars and historic architecture! Ha, ha.

I would be extremely happy if those areas stay flat for 5 years as I like what I can get in those neighborhoods right now. I am curious about your comment about long-term appreciation though. What would you recommend for someone looking for good schools, at least 2250 sq ft, unique housing (not brand new cookie cutter stuff), close to the Kenwood Mall area where I will work, and a budget of now more then $500K in 5 years?

[t45209]

In my opinion, Madeira and Kenwood will be the most difficult to find unique, older housing. Most of what you will find in Madeira are post-war Capes and ranches, and the same with Kenwood. Kenwood is tricky, though. I had some friends who once lived in a part of Kenwood on the border with Silverton in a nice older home. They moved, however, because that part of Kenwood was included in Cincinnati Public Schools (the other, I believe eastern part, of Kenwood is Indian Hill Schools). CPS tends to not be a popular choice for many parents, and you will face that in Hyde Park. Some will argue on here that there are good school choices within CPS, but the key is being on the right street to get the best elementary school options...or find yourself camping out for days in front of some magnet school like the Fairview German Academy.

Mariemont and Terrace Park share the same relatively high quality school system.

For the amount of money you want to spend and that square footage, you shouldn't have difficulty finding something in any of those neighborhoods.

[progmac]

Hyde Park is probably your best bet. I don't know how you define unique housing, but for the most part you won't find it in Madeira or Kenwood. But it isn't new either, so it just depends what you expect.

[kjbrill]

Kenwood is a census designated place (CDP) in sycamore township encompassing 2.3 sq miles. It is the location of Kenwood Towne Centre and Sycamore Plaza. The majority of Kenwood is north/west of Montgomery Rd, extending west to Kenwood Rd, and north to the borders of Blue Ash and Montgomery. There is a small sliver south of I-71 wedged in between Hosbrook Rd and Euclid Ave. I believe all of this is in Indian Hill school district.
There is another small sliver wedged in between south of I-71, west of Kenwood Rd, and north of Euclid Rd. I believe this is in CPS (Silverton) school district.

A significant portion of what was originally Kenwood lies south of Euclid Rd, running south along Kenwood Rd to the border of Madisonville, east to Camargo Rd, and west to Steward Rd the border with Silverton. Years ago this was annexed to Madeira and I believe lies in the Madeira school district, though some western portions may be in CPS since school districts are not usually affected by annexation. This is where Kenwood Country Club is located. It is this area which in my opinion holds some of the best housing stock to be found in Madeira. While certainly not new, it was developed not as one huge subdivision but a single or couple of streets at a time. At that time, the houses were built to order. The originals were large sprawling ranches with huge cavernous full basements. This was prior to the era of first floor family rooms or great rooms, but those basements could support a rumpus room (as they were called then), a separate game room with pool table, pingpong table, dart board, etc. plus a full laundry and a workshop for dad. The rolling terrain also offered numerous opportunities for walk-out basements, large patios, inground pools, etc. I remember being envious of their owners.

There are similar properties in the current Kenwood, specifically in the northern section.

I will agree the majority of Madeira and Kenwood are overpriced, specifically the preponderance of post-war small cape cods and ranches. They have held their value due to one simple thing - the schools. When I reflect on that it is not just the schools, but the safety of the neighborhoods and the desire to be among people who share like life values.

To get back to my original intent, to say you want a unique, non-cookie cutter, but not overly pretentious home and they do not exist in Madeira or Kenwood is just not true. It may take some looking, but they do exist. The fact there are not dozens on the market each month just attests to their livability and the current owners are not champing at the bit to sell unless they have a good reason.

[fiskkm]

I agree with many of the comments here about certain neighborhoods. But, I don't want to start a debate about the housing as I have already narrowed down my options to the list above. I just want to obtain some input on the average appreciation for those areas in the next 3-5 years. Basically, what I want to say is the $400K house that is for sale right now, will likely cost $X in 3-5 years. That will help me in planning how much of a down payment I will need. I realize there are MANY factors that could change the appreciation of an individual house and neighborhood, but I am looking for a high level number just for planning purposes. Thus far, I have seen t45209 state "prices are going to be fairly flat for the foreseable future". Thanks for the input. Anyone else care to weigh in?

[kjbrill]

Yes, I will weigh in. I feel housing prices are going to remain flat at the best for at least 5 years. I base this on the following factors:
> There are a continuing large number of foreclosures, and many of these are in the upper home value region. Combined with the Short Sale homes to escape foreclosure there is a glut of property on the market.
> If you look at such factors as Homearama the outlook is rather bleak. They suspended it for 2010 and the 2011 version is downsized. You may say well they brought it back for 2011, but if you are a home builder what are you going to do - nothing (no business) or go on with business as normal if you can. What else can you do? The builders try and put on a brave face, but they are hurting.
> The building bubble did not just deflate, it burst. Since the rest of the economy went into the tank at the same time, it is an overall economic deflation - how many people not only find themselves with homes below their current market value but with mortgages above their income capability and this the foreclosures?

If you want an idea where we stand, look at Sarah's thread Home Sales by Neighborhood

While this is only one month, go down the columns contrasting listing price versus sale price. I think you can readily see in the majority of cases the homes selling are either well below the listing price or at the bottom of the values in the specific neighborhood.

I just do not see this turning around quickly. Naturally the realtors and the builders would like you to believe the situation is homes in Cincy are selling for close to the listing price. But I do not believe this is the case. If true, show me some real statistics.

I would not be worried at at about a substantial home value appreciation over the next five years, because I do not believe in miracles.

[Sarah Perry]

My instincts tell me that housing prices will remain basically flat for the next few years, too. To the OP, two comments.

Cincinnati didn't experience home price inflation on the same scale as a lot of other parts of the country. So while there was less of a bubble to burst, we haven't been immune to some value loss and/or flattening. There isn't much in the way of indications that that's changing anytime soon.

I don't know what's happened to property valuations for tax purposes in many neighborhoods, but in my neighborhood which appears stable and has only had a couple of foreclosures, valuations have been reduced by 10 percent or so over the last few years.

[Wilson513]

Originally Posted by Sarah Perry

My instincts tell me that housing prices will remain basically flat for the next few years, too. To the OP, two comments.

Cincinnati didn't experience home price inflation on the same scale as a lot of other parts of the country. So while there was less of a bubble to burst, we haven't been immune to some value loss and/or flattening. There isn't much in the way of indications that that's changing anytime soon.

I don't know what's happened to property valuations for tax purposes in many neighborhoods, but in my neighborhood which appears stable and has only had a couple of foreclosures, valuations have been reduced by 10 percent or so over the last few years.

Unfortunately, the prices paid in foreclosure sales are not taken into account in the Auditor's appraisal process or tax values would be far lower in many places. This is an anomaly in the tax law with no basis in fact. So we are just stuck with it.