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Russia has a huge problem with population.
They are down to 143 million people, having peaked at 148 million in '92.
That is a huge problem, and they cannot turn it around. They have tried.
They can turn it around, it has actually slowed more than anticipated. But the way things are now, it will not turn around. Progress in Russia has stalled, even reversed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307
Because of Russian corruption within its high ranks they will never succeed in dominating Europe. Smart countries will wean themselves of Russian oil and gas and buy it from countries who can be trusted.
Short term, though Crimea has a problem, and probably almost all of Ukraine.
Well, Europe before WW1 no one would have thought it would be like it is today. They went from a continent fleeing to the US, to one where some places like Sweden are envied for their quality of life. Sweden in the late 1800's had over a million people leave for the US, now you could not drag them from the place.
But this little game now, the oligarchs and minority power brokers are playing the common person against each other, thus creating hostilities at a personal level. Out of two countries in the world that should be close, Russia and Ukraine should be among the top. However, divide and conquer strategy works, and it is a constant "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" system. All of them need to revolt against this system, acknowledge their history good and bad, and re-invent themselves and their countries.
They can turn it around, it has actually slowed more than anticipated. But the way things are now, it will not turn around. Progress in Russia has stalled, even reversed......
Well, Europe before WW1 no one would have thought it would be like it is today. They went from a continent fleeing to the US, to one where some places like Sweden are envied for their quality of life. Sweden in the late 1800's had over a million people leave for the US, now you could not drag them from the place.........
But this little game now, the oligarchs and minority power brokers are playing the common person against each other, thus creating hostilities at a personal level. Out of two countries in the world that should be close, Russia and Ukraine should be among the top. However, divide and conquer strategy works, and it is a constant "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" system. All of them need to revolt against this system, acknowledge their history good and bad, and re-invent themselves and their countries.
Nice post. You are well informed, I think.
A couple of other things to say about Russia:
Their death rate (per 100,000 per year) is at 14. To compare, the USA is at 8.3.
The life expectancy of the average Russian man is only 70 years. USA 78.
And their fertility rate (# births/woman in her lifetime) is 1.6. Takes 2.1 to sustain a population.
The Russian leadership knows this, of course. And they understand that there will be no Great Russia in the future. For whatever reasons, the country has been destroyed. They may be on their feet, but they have been destroyed.
Maybe Russia's failure is what this Ukraine thing is about. I had relatives in Georgia up until 6 years ago and they were completely puzzled by Russia's meddling in Georgia. Made no sense to them as they felt Russia had no hope of gaining anything.
Or maybe Putin is just plain crazy and would like to believe that he will go down in history as yet another "Great Man who saved Russia". Lenin!....Stalin!....Putin!
At any rate I think rhetoric is called for and little else. Give the Ukrainians what assistance we can and hope the death toll is low...
A couple of other things to say about Russia:
Their death rate (per 100,000 per year) is at 14. To compare, the USA is at 8.3.
The life expectancy of the average Russian man is only 70 years. USA 78.
And their fertility rate (# births/woman in her lifetime) is 1.6. Takes 2.1 to sustain a population.
The Russian leadership knows this, of course. And they understand that there will be no Great Russia in the future. For whatever reasons, the country has been destroyed. They may be on their feet, but they have been destroyed.
Maybe Russia's failure is what this Ukraine thing is about. I had relatives in Georgia up until 6 years ago and they were completely puzzled by Russia's meddling in Georgia. Made no sense to them as they felt Russia had no hope of gaining anything.
Or maybe Putin is just plain crazy and would like to believe that he will go down in history as yet another "Great Man who saved Russia". Lenin!....Stalin!....Putin!
At any rate I think rhetoric is called for and little else. Give the Ukrainians what assistance we can and hope the death toll is low...
If the Russians are so dead and failed and the Ukrainians are so vibrant and great -- why can't they handle it on their own?
It seems to me this is all a European problem. If the Ukraine wants closer ties with other European nations and the EU -- can't they all figure it out without the USA?
If the Russians are so dead and failed and the Ukrainians are so vibrant and great -- why can't they handle it on their own?
It seems to me this is all a European problem. If the Ukraine wants closer ties with other European nations and the EU -- can't they all figure it out without the USA?
You are making a mistake in assuming that the world has separate parts and that these problems aren't interrelated.
Was Nazi Germany only a European problem? Was Imperial Japan only a problem Asia faced?
When the U.S.A was building up its military in the late 19th century, should Europe and Asia, which the U.S. later dominated, not be concerned about the rise of the U.S.A.? They certainly paid a big price!
The Ukraine is a geopolitically important place that has been a center of conflict throughout history. It's about the pipelines, the ports, and the access to Oceans. What's more, it is also about testing Europe's real abilities. If Russia can achieve this goal, how far can it go before it meets significant obstacles. This is what Russia wonders about as well. How far does the West allow Russia to advance?
Will Albania annex Kosovo any soon? Did Albanian army invade Kosovo to set up a "referendum" farce in 15 days supervised by aggressive & armed separatists? Was population of Crimea rebelling and waging a guerrilla war for their independence before a Russian invasion?
Crimea is a very rotten precedent, don't even try to play it down. It's way more serious than Kosovo. It takes very serious blindness not to see that. The fact that no country, even close Russian allies, support Putin' anshchluss scheme is way more telling than all my posts combined. With a single invasion, Putin might wipe out entire post WWII international security, Russians are obsessing with their victory in WWII, it's very ironic that empire minded Russian chauvinists are willing to trash sacrifice of millions of their dead in WWII.
Will Albania annex Kosovo any soon? Did Albanian army invade Kosovo to set up a "referendum" farce in 15 days supervised by aggressive & armed separatists? Was population of Crimea rebelling and waging a guerrilla war for their independence before a Russian invasion?
Crimea is a very rotten precedent, don't even try to play it down. It's way more serious than Kosovo. It takes very serious blindness not to see that. The fact that no country, even close Russian allies, support Putin' anshchluss scheme is way more telling than all my posts combined. With a single invasion, Putin might wipe out entire post WWII international security, Russians are obsessing with their victory in WWII, it's very ironic that empire minded Russian chauvinists are willing to trash sacrifice of millions of their dead in WWII.
So what do you want the U.S. to act. You can explain the reasons, but what actions do you think the U.S. should take? Tell Russia what you said and see how they respond?
So what do you want the U.S. to act. You can explain the reasons, but what actions do you think the U.S. should take? Tell Russia what you said and see how they respond?
What will stop Russia?
Am I a security adviser? How would I know what minimum/maximum can be done if I know little to nothing about most of the stuff relevant to making those decisions? We fund all that security apparatus and you ask me what can be done?
Will Albania annex Kosovo any soon? Did Albanian army invade Kosovo to set up a "referendum" farce in 15 days supervised by aggressive & armed separatists? Was population of Crimea rebelling and waging a guerrilla war for their independence before a Russian invasion?
Crimea is a very rotten precedent, don't even try to play it down. It's way more serious than Kosovo. It takes very serious blindness not to see that. The fact that no country, even close Russian allies, support Putin' anshchluss scheme is way more telling than all my posts combined. With a single invasion, Putin might wipe out entire post WWII international security, Russians are obsessing with their victory in WWII, it's very ironic that empire minded Russian chauvinists are willing to trash sacrifice of millions of their dead in WWII.
You stated:
"If it would be a spontaneous case of self-organization of people residing in Crimea, it would still go against post WWII security mechanisms, provided no genocide of some sort. There is no such thing as "Crimean nation". There are ethnic Russians (at least 20% of those would prefer Crimea to stay with Ukraine), there are Tartars and ethnic Ukrainians, most of Tartars and Ukrainians are against merger with Russia. Since ethnic Russians have already their statehood, the principle of protecting international borders trumps the right for self-determination."
I asked about Kosovo, because there is no such thing as a "Kosovo nation", and they voted for independence against the wishes of Serbia who Kosovo was part of, and it was against the Serbian constitution as well.
Kosovo was the rotten precedent, not Crimea.
And does it take a war to establish legality for independence? What international law is that? And how many people are suppose to be killed before the world determines it is ok for a referendum to declare independence? How about being preemptive about it?
I am not implying I agree with the situation, but it is not just some black and white issue, and hardly a unique situation in history, especially in the realm of national security. The US stood by while Bahrain, supported by 1000 Saudi troops, crushed protesters in Bahrain; the US was pretty much silent about it.
I asked about Kosovo, because there is no such thing as a "Kosovo nation", and they voted for independence against the wishes of Serbia who Kosovo was part of, and it was against the Serbian constitution as well.
Kosovo was the rotten precedent, not Crimea.
Will Albania annex Kosovo any soon? Did Albanian army invade Kosovo to set up a "referendum" farce in 15 days supervised by aggressive & armed separatists? Was population of Crimea rebelling and waging a guerrilla war for their independence before a Russian invasion?
How exactly situation in Crimea is remotely similar to Kosovo? Kosovo' strong independence movement and guerrilla styled attacks were results of "spontaneous" will of the local people? Crimea was calm until a neighboring nation sent in thousands of troops, gangs and other operatives to set up a sham "referendum" and calm down dissenters. You refuse to acknowledge this major difference between two cases.
There are Kosovars, btw. I've met a few, and they don't call themselves Albanians, they are not ecstatic about becoming a part of Albania, it's a fairly distinct ethnic group from all I can tell. Crimea and Kosovo situations are very different.
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