is the economy really that complicated or is it made to seem complicated? (2013, real estate)
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Sometimes I think people are jumbling up terminology and weaving with facts and figures that makes it seem impossible for a person to understand. Is the economy really that complicated or is it being made more complicated than it really is.
Well, Bernanke yesterday talked about a few of things even he or he says economist thru out history have never understood in economies. they like a doctor treat the symtoms of this recession knwig what they do has future consequences but not sure exactly what they will be as we have never been here before.
I always remember this quote from George Stigler, who was not only a great economist but a great writer. In the intro of The Theory of Price, he likens the economy to a 3D jigsaw puzzle with 100 million parts, then himself declares that comparison as too simplistic. Then writes that economists
Quote:
Originally Posted by George Stigler
have a second level of difficulty not shared by the physical sciences. Our main elements of analysis are people, and people who are influenced by the practices and policies we analyze. Imagine the problems of a chemist if he had to deal with molecules of oxygen, each of which was somewhat interested in whether it was joined in chemical bond to hydrogen. Some would hurry him along; others would cry shrilly for a federal program to drill wells for water instead; and several would blandly assure him that they were molecules of argon.
Sometimes I think people are jumbling up terminology and weaving with facts and figures
that makes it seem impossible for a person to understand.
Much (most in many instances) of that jumbling and weaving is intentional.
The pattern isn't exclusive to economics though... f'rinstance, what do you do for a living?
I'm sure you use trade jargon too but still it's more about the insider vs outsider thing...
and to a large degree not revealing "the man behind the curtain"
Once you live through one or two, and pay attention, it really gives you an advantage the next time one happens.
It certainly does.
Plus I have a 'doctor's index'. About 10 docs in my medical group. When they are all in, like right now, I look to exit. Which I have been recently doing. But certainly not all out, like in 2006. Then I was convinced of the real possibility of doom and the abyss. And not only because of my index, but because the excesses in real estate.
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