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This thread has been quite entertaining thus far. I hope I don't ruin the parade...
I think the rising stock market means that the economy is established in a recovery and the worst is over. Businesses have cut back on spending, including payroll, and are operating more efficiently than before the downturn. Unemployment is still high, but this is historically normal at this point, and actually helps business recovery. Investment dollars are still flowing into stocks via 401ks and from a lack of other investment options. Those who flee to bonds or gold for security have already done so and will likely return to stocks slowly. Bonds won't be returning much going forward and gold will take a dramatic fall soon. Housing prices have bottomed out and will present a good buying opportunity, but too many people have been stung too greatly to flood back into the real estate market when it does come back, and will instead choose stocks.
But of course this is all lost on most economists, especially those in power. The government is still trying to force recovery instead of letting the market recover naturally as it has always done. Government meddling will only serve to overheat the economy in the coming years. The day of reckoning will come when we as Americans will have to pay for our profligate waste of future taxpayers' dollars, but this is still probably at least a couple stock market bubbles away. As the economy heats up, the government will take in more revenue from capital gains, so that will ease the budget deficit and encourage more wasteful government spending, exacerbating the long term reckoning.
What the government should be doing in tightening the belt. This tax cut extension was regrettable. It should have only been for incomes below national average. They should also add higher tax brackets for higher incomes. I don't have a big problem with the unemployment insurance extension, but it should have been done for a reduced rate, maybe 75%, and not for 2 years. But unemployment insurance should be overhauled altogether. Unemployment taxes taken out of our paychecks should be in a self-directed (with limitations) individual fund, along with social security, that employees can use at their discretion for approved purposed (unemployment, retirement, disability, etc.) instead of being lumped in with the non-individual national budget.
The government needs to downsize tremendously, but instead it is growing faster than ever. My only hope at this point is that the Republicans will restore some fiscal responsibility, but I don't have reason to be too optimistic in light of recent events (as mentioned in last paragraph). The bloated government and unsustainable entitlements will be our biggest dilemma in future years, but like I said, the short term economy will recover from 2 years ago and stocks will be the best place for investment, in my opinion.
Humans will never live like lions, because human brains are not wired that way. You can't turn us all into jungle animals just by announcing that conversion.
I dunno about this....the Black Friday nonsense a couple weeks ago didn't give me much hope for society if things were to get really bad.
If people will trample, hit, and verbally assault each other for non-essential consumer goods, what do you suppose they'll do if things get really bad, such as energy/fuel/food supply disruptions?
Not sure what the DOW would have to slip to in order to be the catalyst, or if it ever will be allowed to. I don't think the upward trend reflects reality...but then again, what is 'reality' any more??
Looking forward to hearing about the Wall St bonuses paid out to employees in the next few weeks, though...
Dude, just last month I saw you authoritatively claiming on these forums that there are no refrigerators in China, so I'm certainly not willing to accept anything from you about knowledge and claims of it.
Still wondering how so many articles can be easily found about the terrible economy and whether entering another depression, when jtur88 is quite sure the media are all just paid to report positive economic news to make people rich.
You go right ahead and keep on judging the economy on the value of Precious Moments figurines, which fluctuate according to the same principles as the stock market.
You go right ahead and keep on judging the economy on the value of Precious Moments figurines, which fluctuate according to the same principles as the stock market.
I certainly don't judge the economy soley based on the DOW, although it can be a reasonable leading indicator. You keep beating that strawman jtur88.
I was merely pointing out the impossible dichotomy of your insane claims about media being perpetually on a campaign to foster bullish sentiment when there are thousands of media pieces from 2008 that directly prove that false. You swim around in all the tired conspiracy theorist catch words that you want stormtroopers big brother etc. but somehow can't get your common sense filter working well enough to see how what you are saying makes no sense.
Dude, just last month I saw you authoritatively claiming on these forums that there are no refrigerators in China, so I'm certainly not willing to accept anything from you about knowledge and claims of it.
Still wondering how so many articles can be easily found about the terrible economy and whether entering another depression, when jtur88 is quite sure the media are all just paid to report positive economic news to make people rich.
Who owns the media? Corporations do. Corporations = rich.
I certainly don't judge the economy soley based on the DOW, although it can be a reasonable leading indicator. You keep beating that strawman jtur88.
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It's not MY strawman. It's the central topic of the thread.
But don't let that stop you from using insulting epitaphs, your only refuge. You need all you can get, and put one in every line you write, since you have no arguments.
Well, what do you know? A couple of bears have been allowed on CNBC during the great crash. As the bottom was falling out of the mortgage and auto industries, negative articles were "easy to find . . . over the past couple of years".
The Dow, at this moment, is higher than it was in August 2006, or any day in history before that. And has recovered to the level it was at in July 2008, three months before the great crash. And exactly what characteristic of our present economic environment is it that justifies this wonderful bull market, other than the influences of the bull media? How much more optimistic about our economy are you, than you were prior to August 2006? Is the Dow a good indicator?
Peter Schiff is on about twice a week, no more ridiculous bear than that guy. If its good news, well its all fabricated. If its bad news, well its even worse than they say. He's like a bad football announcer, you have to turn the sound off when his tired rants start.
This thread is good entertainment though. All the conspiracy theorists dressed in their "Dow 1000" uniforms were drawn out for our enjoyment
It's not MY strawman. It's the central topic of the thread.
I pointed out how silly your claim was about journalists having an ongoing agenda to prop up the markets, and you respond by sarcastically telling me to keep judging the economy by the DOW.
Duh.
Quote:
But don't let that stop you from using insulting epitaphs, your only refuge. You need all you can get, and put one in every line you write, since you have no arguments.
Says the guy fighting strawmen and refusing to explain the deluge of negative economic articles that sink his claims about the media.
If you ain't in the market it doesn't mean **** to you. Those in the market have made a KILLING the last 2 years.
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