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For those who have not heard of him, John Williams of Shadowstats (dot com) is a renowned financial statistician who has continued publishing M3 long after the Fed discontinued publishing it, on the grounds that it was no longer relevant. Williams has proven that indeed, it is relevant today.
In this interview, he speaks of hyperinflation, the collapse of the USD, and steps every American should take to prepare. It may take some of you out of your comfort zone, but this is one man whose opinions and statistical analysis should not be dismissed lightly.
Last edited by Nor'Eastah; 05-21-2011 at 09:34 AM..
Reason: bad link
For those who have not heard of him, John Williams of Shadowstats (dot com) is a renowned financial statistician who has continued publishing M3 long after the Fed discontinued publishing it, on the grounds that it was no longer relevant. Williams has proven that indeed, it is relevant today.
In this interview, he speaks of hyperinflation, the collapse of the USD, and steps every American should take to prepare. It may take some of you out of your comfort zone, but this is one man whose opinions and statistical analysis should not be dismissed lightly.
Where was your outrage during the administration of Bush 43 when this economic slide started?
The administration of George W. Bush Jr. was responsible for an over 50% increase in the number of people getting food stamps. The largest increase of any two term presidential administration since they started keeping records.
Can you explain to me how you get serious inflationary pressure in an economy without wage growth?
I just don't see "hyperinflation" without wage growth. Even with rising commodity prices the lack of corresponding increases in wages eventually blunts the demand for those commodities and puts the break on those prices.
Also in terms of dollar devaluation the countries with the currencies showing the appreciation versus the U.S. i.e. Australia, New Zealand, and Canada tend to have the appreciation of their currencies tied to currencies and somewhat healthy economic growth. The fact that China pegs its currency to the United States dollar also tends to blunt inflationary pressure.
The real test will be what happens when QE2 ends and how it affects the valuation of the dollar. It will also be interesting to see what happens with the debt ceiling.
Can you explain to me how you get serious inflationary pressure in an economy without wage growth?
I just don't see "hyperinflation" without wage growth..
Do you literally mean "wage growth", or do you mean "income growth"? They are not the same thing. Aggregate income of Americans is rising, with the potential for increase in spending, but that would not necessarily mean that "wages" are increasing, if all of the increase is represented by capital gains and/or executive salaries, contracts and bonuses. Inflation is income-driven, not wage-driven.
We have, over the past half century, experienced wage contraction, when adjusted for inflation, which has marched ahead in spite of a lack of wage growth.
In 1953 my dad, an unskilled, uneducated worker on a factory floor, paid 15% of his income to rent a comfortable house, and bought a new Dodge sedan for 3 months wages. There's been plenty of inflation, but where's the necessary wage growth that drives it?
I don't see it happening anytime soon. The govt. and the Fed could hold the house of cards up for 100 years or more even piling on the debt at the current rate.
There's no analysis anywhere, just a few paragraphs of "OMG HYPERINFLATION" repeated in different ways.
The guy has been predicting it for years, about every time he writes in his idiot blog it's "just about to happen".
He is a great case for the phrase "Those the gods wish to destroy, they first drive mad". He claims repeatedly that every shred of economic data the government puts out is "grossly inaccurate", which he then posts older measures for various indicators. Even though those stats are very clearly published (such as U4/6 are very clearly at the BLS site) and he has never published why or how that data is grossly inaccurate.
I wonder where he gets his data, since I doubt he has a large staff to count everything independently from the various entities that collect the data already. Even though it seems like his blog is the only thing keeping him busy anymore.
I guess to a true believer it is always accurate as long as it says what they believe already.
Ah but he is a " a renowned financial statistician"
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