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The Chinese stock market is being manipulated... Just like everywhere else. The Chinese are taking it too far though.
Basically, the government is telling citizens to buy into the stock market... Since their real economy is showing it's weakness...
I did extraordinarily well as of late betting on some Chinese penny stocks. I'm not making recommendations, but there could be tons of upward potential on this one... What is stopping them from blowing a bubble of epic proportions? It would enrich the nation with little effort at all. They have basically amassed the world's highest concentration of productive capacity, while the rest of the world decays.
Everything is a bubble in China right now. Equities, real estate, commodities. It's going to blow. And when it does, I wouldn't want to be anywhere near it.
Here's the deal. Last year, China had the largest working age population that it ever will. Let that sink in for a moment. China will never again have the size of workforce it had over the past two-three years. It's already shrinking, a consequence of the One Couple One Child policy of Mao.
Right now, it's barely noticeable. But between now and 2050, China will lost an estimated 250,000,000 people from the workforce as its population rapidly ages. During the same period, the United States' workforce will increase by 50,000,000 people.
In fact, you have a China in miniature going on right now in Japan. Remember its explosive growth? Remember its real estate and equity boom? Remember the articles that posited that Japan would be the world's dominant economy? All that came to a screeching halt around 1989. Today, the Japanese are looking at a population decline that's well underway, with population expected to drop by almost a third in the next 45 years, with 40% of the remaining population being 60 and older. This is already having a brutal effect on the Japanese population, and the Japanese economy.
And China will have an even more precipitous decline in population. It's unavoidable at this point.
I'm curious as to where you get the US workforce projections from. It would have to come immigration as our birthrate is lower than the replacement rate
I'm curious as to where you get the US workforce projections from. It would have to come immigration as our birthrate is lower than the replacement rate
UN Census numbers.
International Security magazine had a really eye-opening analysis on the subject two years ago.
I'm curious as to where you get the US workforce projections from. It would have to come immigration as our birthrate is lower than the replacement rate
This was my understanding as well. Legal and illegal immigrants are giving a boost to our population, not natural citizens.
Which would be an easy solution on paper for China, Japan, and S. Korea, but they are historically xenophobic in regards to immigration.
I just don't see a bright future for China at this rate. Severe environmental degradation on top of a huge bubble.
They have been riding one bubble after another. Wages have been growing at extraordinary rates, but even still, their GDP per capita, and their purchasing power parity is quite low. How can they continue to raise wages under today's deflationary conditions? Certainly won't continue when the U.S. turns off the faucet.
There is a huge productive capacity glut in China. A great deal of it was financed to do short term projects during the boom years. This will only add deflationary pressure for years to come.
After Wallstreet is done with China, all they will be left with is an armpit of an environment and debt. Ain't progress great?
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