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Lets talk about auto repair then. Given advanced enough robotics, you could literally design something that would completely disassemble a car into its individual pieces, then using vision systems, and laser scanning decide which parts are out of spec, 3D print them on site or order them, then reassemble the vehicle in its entirety. In effect repairing or refurbishing the vehicles.
I want to lend support to the auto repair point by bringing in electric cars as an example.
Electric cars have fewer parts and therefore fewer points of failure than a traditional ICE + transmission based car would. While they would still benefit from the on-demand replacement parts route that greywar described, I think they would have other options as well.
Tesla has been testing a concept for robotically replacing entire battery packs as an alternative to using charging stations to refuel but I think it is well within their engineering capability to make other key components of their cars similarly replaceable.
So imagine if electric cars in the future could easily replace entire components through pre-programmed robot motions and replacement parts: Rather than precisely finding a point of failure, entire components are simply unbolted and replaced. The customer goes on his/her merry way in minutes while the defective pieces could be gathered at a warehouse elsewhere for more precise diagnosis and refurbishing.
We end up with a situation of a net reduction in jobs: Suppose there is a similar failure rate between electric motors and ICEs, fewer operators are needed in this future system. Customers get their repairs completed faster than ever so fewer staff are needed to serve a number of customers. Some new work is shifted toward logistics support but this type of work can be streamlined to a point where it takes less equivalent expertise than what a good auto mechanic may need. Refurbishing parts would be a new job requiring expertise comparable to what mechanics need but in a factory setup, the work is again streamlined to where we need fewer refurbishing technicians than we would need of auto mechanics in independent shops.
BTW for those thinking that software engineering is the way to go....
decades ago....testing was done via manual test execution. People had to manually exercise the software.
Today? Test automation, along with increased unit testing frameworks. We have a group using the old method, the employ hundreds of people, and get worse results. My group employs a dozen.
Writing software a couple decades ago required you to understand inter window communications, creating plotting points for graphs manually, creating a single interactive dialog would take serious amounts of time.
Today? I can put something together in about 1/10th the time.
Chemists? One of the places I interviewed at 5 years ago was to make a automated test platform for chemical reactions. Before it took dozens of scientists to test various combinations of chemicals. The were making a smart system capable of estimating the most effective possibilities, then via automation to test 100's of them at a time.
While people here are focusing on the low skilled jobs going away, a lot of the higher skilled ones are being eroded as well. And once a true AI system gets going, NOTHING will be safe.
The equalizer is if automation moves up the ladder to the point that the majority of labor is eliminated there will be insufficient demand for the products produced. The end result will be a welfare society that will need to be supported by either the owners of production or the government.
These changes are taking place now but are in the beginning stages and are largely being hidden and excused away by the 2009 meltdown and partisan political rhetoric. Fed interventions, artificially low interest rates and the relative economic advantages the US has enjoyed over other developed nations has been a great cover. However, unemployment is already in the upper teens and higher for young people in many countries. The general population is largely unaware of what is going on. If the pace continues, by 2018 or definitely by 2020, it will be very apparent in many places. At that time, elected officials will not be able to blame it on bad tax policy or government regulation. They will be forced to make decisions that address the needs of the people they represent not just the special interests of their big donors.
Technology offers many opportunities when used responsibly and for the good of society. If everyone operates in an isolated self-interest and ignores the value of labor then the endgame is that advances in technology lead to a decline in the quality of society.
Last edited by Lincolnian; 05-11-2015 at 06:22 PM..
The equalizer is if automation moves up the ladder to the point that the majority of labor is eliminated there will be insufficient demand for the products produced. The end result will be a welfare society that will need to be supported by either the owners of production or the government.
Exactly but everyone keeps their head in the sand on that idea anytime it is brought up.
The equalizer is if automation moves up the ladder to the point that the majority of labor is eliminated there will be insufficient demand for the products produced. The end result will be a welfare society that will need to be supported by either the owners of production or the government.
I think that will be a transitional state as more and more of the ability to produce products becomes individualized. The future will eventually be awesome, the transition....not as much.
If we lose 30% of all jobs no one stands to benefit as the rich too will eventially fall on there $$$ when no one has money to buy the products of the fortune 500 companies....
I think that will be a transitional state as more and more of the ability to produce products becomes individualized. The future will eventually be awesome, the transition....not as much.
It won't be awesome. China, after several decades of one child policy, has decided to encourage their people to have more children. They need population growth. Globally, we're going to see more population growth overall. Some of the western countries will have population decline in some groups such as Europeans but other groups are having more children. So, eventually the population will way outnumber jobs. And the welfare won't satisfy them.
If we lose 30% of all jobs no one stands to benefit as the rich too will eventially fall on there $$$ when no one has money to buy the products of the fortune 500 companies....
They have already decided to rely on customers from China
The equalizer is if automation moves up the ladder to the point that the majority of labor is eliminated there will be insufficient demand for the products produced. The end result will be a welfare society that will need to be supported by either the owners of production or the government.
These changes are taking place now but are in the beginning stages and are largely being hidden and excused away by the 2009 meltdown and partisan political rhetoric. Fed interventions, artificially low interest rates and the relative economic advantages the US has enjoyed over other developed nations has been a great cover. However, unemployment is already in the upper teens and higher for young people in many countries. The general population is largely unaware of what is going on. If the pace continues, by 2018 or definitely by 2020, it will be very apparent in many places. At that time, elected officials will not be able to blame it on bad tax policy or government regulation. They will be forced to make decisions that address the needs of the people they represent not just the special interests of their big donors.
Technology offers many opportunities when used responsibly and for the good of society. If everyone operates in an isolated self-interest and ignores the value of labor then the endgame is that advances in technology lead to a decline in the quality of society.
But isn't that good news for the political left and the Democrats? Now you finally have able-bodied people who would never have anything to do and your big government welfare society is finally a reality that America cannot resist.
Car repair? Just make disposable cars or use the automatic driving cars. They taxi you around, go back to the warehouse each night to be serviced and cleaned by the roomba and the auto car wash
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