Can we agree on a definition of the word recession? (wholesale, percentage)

[lieqiang]

It seems so many posts in here use pet definitions for recession, everything from consumer credit statistics to slowing (or stagnant) expansion in certain sectors. A quick google gives me quite a few definitions:

- a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

- a slowdown or a massive contraction in economic activities. A significant fall in spending generally leads to a recession

- Period of general economic decline, defined usually as a contraction in the GDP for six months (two consecutive quarters) or longer.

- a significant decline in activity across the economy, lasting longer than a few months. It is visible in industrial production, employment, real income and wholesale-retail trade. The technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country's gross domestic product (GDP); although the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not necessarily need to see this occur to call a recession.

- In a 1979 New York Times article, economic statistician Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was two down consecutive quarters of GDP.[3] In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten. Some economists prefer a definition of a 1.5-2 percentage points rise in unemployment within 12 months.[4]

- In the United States, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[5] Almost universally, academics, economists, policy makers, and businesses defer to the determination by the NBER for the precise dating of a recession's onset and end.

[Philip T]

hmmm. Probably not.

But good luck, all the same.

[Larry Siegel]

I am a trained (and published) economist. My colleagues and I generally defer to the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER. Two consecutive calendar quarters of negative real GDP growth is a good proxy because that is what the Committee is looking for, but they have other criteria so just look on their web site.

[Mircea]

Okay.