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It's a complex problem, but our ag imports have exceeded our ag exports for three years now. How much is the federal regulatory & fiscal policy to blame?....
,..or is the culprit Chipotle, what with all the Mexican avocados and cheap Australian beef they import?
Farm income went down again last year. Most farmers hope to just break even. How long would you continue your business if that was your situation? What can we do to keep farmers in business? Food security is a problem for all of us. https://www.marketplace.org/2024/01/...o-record-high/
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guidoLaMoto
It's a complex problem, but our ag imports have exceeded our ag exports for three years now. How much is the federal regulatory & fiscal policy to blame?....
There is no food security problem, nor is there a drop in production problem.
USDA long-term projections: https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/f...ns-to-2033.pdf
We presently export near half of what we produce. That leaves a lot of room for us to feed ourselves.
Production is projected to continue to increase through 2033. Our population growth is about 0.3 to 0.5% a year.
What we import that is so much money and is the cause of the rtade deficit is a subset of agricultural products that is called "horticultural products". That's the expensive stuff like tropical products, out of season fruits and vegetables, cheese, wine and other alcohol products, and processed foods. It's also things we don't need in the way that we need wheat, corn and meat products. However, some things like oil seeds are just cheaper from other countries.
Horticultural products are also our fourth largest category of exports (by dollars). we just buy more than we sell.
It's kind of like the age old problem of exporting cheap ore and then importing expensive manufactured products, but not exactly the same.
However, there is a projected decrease in net farm income for a variety of reasons over the next few years. Production increase, but so do rising costs for fuel, interest rates, decreased government support, etc. See page 63-67 of the projections document. To me it looks mostly like a decrease after a spike due to Fed support during the covid pandemic.
There is no food security problem TODAY, but things can change quickly. Remember the empty store shelves in '21/'22?
Compare commodity prices of 40 y/a vs today-- they have not kept up with the average rate of inflation, although input costs have. How long can that trend last before too many farmers call it quits?
Production continues to rise thanks to technology, but all growth phenomena follow a logistic curve. How far are we from the upper asymptote of that curve now? How long can we expect that improvement in tech to continue?....
How much will the govt interference in energy regs affect production? After all, American ag is said to be the process of turning petroleum into food.
Ag is the only remaining thing America does better than anyone else. Will govt ********** one up too?
There is no food security problem TODAY, but things can change quickly. Remember the empty store shelves in '21/'22?
Compare commodity prices of 40 y/a vs today-- they have not kept up with the average rate of inflation, although input costs have. How long can that trend last before too many farmers call it quits?
Production continues to rise thanks to technology, but all growth phenomena follow a logistic curve. How far are we from the upper asymptote of that curve now? How long can we expect that improvement in tech to continue?....
How much will the govt interference in energy regs affect production? After all, American ag is said to be the process of turning petroleum into food.
Ag is the only remaining thing America does better than anyone else. Will govt ********** one up too?
"Ag is the only remaining thing America does better than anyone else."
That discredits everything you said or might say.
It suggests either a hidden agenda or an astonishing lack of knowledge about USA and the world.
...and your comments represent an alarming lack of foresight.
Pointing out that the value of our net imports now exceeds that of our exports does not equate with a fall from top producer status...but it suggests that we should ana!yze whether or not it represents a trend in that direction that deserves attention. It would be shame if it were due to govt policy and we allowed it to continue.
...and your comments represent an alarming lack of foresight.
Pointing out that the value of our net imports now exceeds that of our exports does not equate with a fall from top producer status...but it suggests that we should ana!yze whether or not it represents a trend in that direction that deserves attention. It would be shame if it were due to govt policy and we allowed it to continue.
The previous administration imposed tariffs on imports, but it did not yield positive results.
...
Horticultural products are also our fourth largest category of exports (by dollars). we just buy more than we sell.
It's kind of like the age old problem of exporting cheap ore and then importing expensive manufactured products, but not exactly the same.
...
So to boil it down, for every $10 in wheat we export, we import $12 in mangoes.
How is that not a problem when we extrapolate that into hundreds of billions?
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(coming from a 4th generation farmer)