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Well, we hit the iceberg. Or maybe Philip T is right and we hit it weeks ago. Either way, we're sinking now. The question is: will we sink fast or will we take on more and more water, stabilizing a bit before lurching lower? Will we go all the way to the bottom or will the U.S.S. China and other growing oil-rich countries chug to the rescue, saving some of us from the wreckage? Will our financial system splinter into pieces or will it survive, dented and gouged, and rebuild into something more solvent?
In true doomer spirit, the Fed's laissez-faire attitude indicates two things: Lehman's books must be truly toxic, if nobody would touch them for pennies on the dollar, and the Fed must be certain that more banks are going under and have finally admitted that they can't save them all. In fact, the U.S.S. WaMu is sailing perilously close to the Bermuda Triangle right about now, followed by the Wachovia. Both have nasty mortgage loan portfolios with some of the worst CA liar loans that will begin resetting in earnest next year. So we're just now going into the second act of this movie. And we're going to need a lot of Kleenex.
Once you take the red pill Lulu you can't go back.
Before you go reading LATOC keep this in mind..there are different levels of doomers..those that perceive a slow crash and those that see outright basic survivalism coming about soon.
Just like in politics there are extremes. Keep that in mind as you read those forums.
I guess I'm a lukewarm doomer then...
But with events like these every day, how can you be an optimist anymore?
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan
Once you take the red pill Lulu you can't go back.
Before you go reading LATOC keep this in mind..there are different levels of doomers..those that perceive a slow crash and those that see outright basic survivalism coming about soon.
Just like in politics there are extremes. Keep that in mind as you read those forums.
I guess I'm a lukewarm doomer then...
But with events like these every day, how can you be an optimist anymore?
Maybe dump the whole optimist / pessimist etc., framework and just see things for what they are?
Like we chatted earlier, Doomers are Experts in the Worst Case.
Maybe think of Real Estate agents and Wall Street sales people as Experts of Best Case.
In practice the full Worst Case or full Best Case rarely happen, if ever. That does not make either bad or worthless, but they are just tools to use in planning.
Like maybe a fire drill or fire escape on a school building is an application of Worst Case planning. It does not mean that a fire will occur, or that anyone involved is following some nonsense such as optimist v. pessimist. It means someone thought the downside risk (doomer as it were) and that someone found a way to mitigate the risk. That is a good thing. The goal of the Worst Case study is to be able to survive it.
Same on the Best Case side of the world. In practice whether one is farming or driving a truck or any of the some thousands of other economic endeavors, to continue in business, one must get return of their capital and return on their capital. Profitability as it were. That is where Best Case planning can come in to optimize profitability -- the typical goal of the Best Case.
But again, the full Worst Case, or full Best Case rarely happen, if ever. What tends to happen in the real world is Changed Case. Where things that lead to the Worst or Best Case change, and to plan for the Changed Case, you need to flexible and adaptable. (another argument against debt, as we discussed earlier).
Maybe dump the whole optimist / pessimist etc., framework and just see things for what they are?
Like we chatted earlier, Doomers are Experts in the Worst Case.
Maybe think of Real Estate agents and Wall Street sales people as Experts of Best Case.
In practice the full Worst Case or full Best Case rarely happen, if ever. That does not make either bad or worthless, but they are just tools to use in planning.
Like maybe a fire drill or fire escape on a school building is an application of Worst Case planning. It does not mean that a fire will occur, or that anyone involved is following some nonsense such as optimist v. pessimist. It means someone thought the downside risk (doomer as it were) and that someone found a way to mitigate the risk. That is a good thing. The goal of the Worst Case study is to be able to survive it.
Same on the Best Case side of the world. In practice whether one is farming or driving a truck or any of the some thousands of other economic endeavors, to continue in business, one must get return of their capital and return on their capital. Profitability as it were. That is where Best Case planning can come in to optimize profitability -- the typical goal of the Best Case.
But again, the full Worst Case, or full Best Case rarely happen, if ever. What tends to happen in the real world is Changed Case. Where things that lead to the Worst or Best Case change, and to plan for the Changed Case, you need to flexible and adaptable. (another argument against debt, as we discussed earlier).
I don't know about worse case never happening. Roubini, Schiff, Janzen and many others laid out a worse case back in 2003 (a few of them as early as 2000), and by gosh they have been spot on.
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
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Even if the worst case of a Great Depression type event doesn't happen, food prices are likely to continue to inflate rapidly as a general trend (not necessarily every year) because we are seeing the general trends of increasing oil prices (needed for farming fuel, transportation fuel, pesticides, and fertilizers) and climate destabilization that will likely affect crops.
So best case or worst case, it's good to have a supply of basic foods (especially those that don't need cooking) and your own comfort foods, in case your personal situation becomes so dire that you can't afford all the food you need.
For example, you might only be able to find temporary labor for long periods of time, maybe just enough to pay rent or mortgage.
At the same time, demand on food banks etc may become so great that you won't be able to benefit much from those resources.
So it would be wise to have a victory garden (garden outdoors and indoors, plus sprouts), hunting and fishing equipment, and some stored foods.
I'm writing all this down to include in my forthcoming book "Education of a Doomer"
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T
Maybe dump the whole optimist / pessimist etc., framework and just see things for what they are?
Like we chatted earlier, Doomers are Experts in the Worst Case.
Maybe think of Real Estate agents and Wall Street sales people as Experts of Best Case.
In practice the full Worst Case or full Best Case rarely happen, if ever. That does not make either bad or worthless, but they are just tools to use in planning.
Like maybe a fire drill or fire escape on a school building is an application of Worst Case planning. It does not mean that a fire will occur, or that anyone involved is following some nonsense such as optimist v. pessimist. It means someone thought the downside risk (doomer as it were) and that someone found a way to mitigate the risk. That is a good thing. The goal of the Worst Case study is to be able to survive it.
Same on the Best Case side of the world. In practice whether one is farming or driving a truck or any of the some thousands of other economic endeavors, to continue in business, one must get return of their capital and return on their capital. Profitability as it were. That is where Best Case planning can come in to optimize profitability -- the typical goal of the Best Case.
But again, the full Worst Case, or full Best Case rarely happen, if ever. What tends to happen in the real world is Changed Case. Where things that lead to the Worst or Best Case change, and to plan for the Changed Case, you need to flexible and adaptable. (another argument against debt, as we discussed earlier).
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